JLP wins again: what it means for Jamaica’s economy and property investors

On September 3, 2025, the JLP secured a third term; the PNP conceded election night. Final seat totals will be confirmed by the ECJ. Jamaica now faces a rare moment of policy continuity at a time when tourism is setting records, inflation is back inside the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) target, and interest rates are on a gentle easing path. The immediate takeaway for investors—especially those focused on real estate—is straightforward: continuity supports confidence. But the sector-by-sector implications are more nuanced, with some areas likely to accelerate (hospitality, logistics/industrial, BPO-led office) while others remain sensitive to financing costs and permitting timelines.

Below, we examine the investment picture through six lenses—macro stability, tourism/hospitality, commercial property (office, retail, industrial/logistics), housing and mortgages, infrastructure and planning (including the new Parish of Portmore), and security—then close with a watchlist and scenarios for the next 12–24 months.

1) Macro stability and confidence: the quiet force behind cap rates

Inflation and policy rates: Jamaica’s price stability has improved markedly. Point-to-point inflation was 3.3% in July 2025, squarely inside the BOJ’s 4–6% target band. The BOJ held its policy rate at 5.75% in August, citing low domestic inflation and the desire to preserve FX stability. That stance follows a 25 bps cut in May and two holds since, signaling a cautious, data-dependent easing cycle rather than a rapid pivot. For developers, REITs, and leveraged buyers, that combination—tamed inflation and a steady policy rate—reduces rate-volatility risk, supports underwriting, and gradually lowers the cost of capital if the disinflation trend persists.

Growth backdrop: The BOJ projects FY2025/26 real GDP growth of 1–3%, recovering on the back of agriculture, mining, and—critically—tourism (more on that below). A “slow-and-steady” growth path paired with disciplined monetary policy is usually positive for property yields and transaction activity: buyers can price risk with greater confidence when macro indicators are predictable.

Political continuity: Markets generally prize continuity, and the JLP victory implies no abrupt changes to the fiscal framework or the pro-investment posture seen in recent years. While real-time market data on post-election equity and FX moves are still settling, the core macro signals investors monitor—BOJ’s rate stance, inflation trend, tourism flows—already skew supportive for property investment. (As a rule of thumb: stable inflation + stable FX + steady policy = tighter spreads and healthier deal momentum.)

Bottom line for confidence: Expect a modest confidence uplift among lenders, developers, and foreign sponsors, particularly those already evaluating hotel, BPO office, and industrial projects. The political result removes a key uncertainty premium from near-term investment committees.

2) Tourism & hospitality: the growth engine that underwrites hotel deals

Record arrivals and earnings in 2025: Tourism is running hot. Between January and June 2025, Jamaica welcomed ~2.3 million visitors and earned US$2.4 billion—a record for the first half. July 2025 set an all-time July record with ~286,548 stopover visitors, up 16.5% year-over-year. When a destination compiles this kind of momentum, the hotel development math changes: higher occupancy + rate growth + airlift expansion = stronger underwriting for new builds and expansions.

Ambitious targets & pipeline: Government strategy continues to aim high—US$5B in annual tourism revenue and 5 million visitors by March 2026—and the pipeline is now visibly translating into steel-in-the-ground. In August 2025, the Prime Minister broke ground on Moon Palace The Grand – Montego Bay, a US$700 million, 1,200-room flagship project that signals confidence from a global operator and anchors a larger “tourism innovation” zone in St. James. Additionally, the 2025 Throne Speech projected six new hotels, 5,600 rooms, ~US$2.5B in FDI, and 10,000 jobs beginning this fiscal year—momentum that dovetails with a longer-term national objective to expand from ~35,000 rooms to 50,000 by 2030. Investment takeaway for hotels:

Debt and equity appetite: With rate stability and record demand, global hotel capital tends to lean in. Expect more upper-upscale/luxury concepts, branded residences, and mixed-use resort villages (F&B, retail, entertainment). Underwriting will still stress test hurricane resilience and insurance costs, but RevPAR growth and brand-led distribution help.
Segments likely to outperform: All-inclusive luxury and family-oriented resorts (waterparks, experiential amenities) have line of sight to scale, while boutique eco-luxury and wellness lodges can capture rate premiums in unique micro-locations. The record cruise rebound and airlift diversification (feeding Montego Bay and Kingston gateways) provide tailwinds.
Construction & jobs: Groundbreakings such as Moon Palace should sustain construction employment and feed subcontractors (fit-out, MEP, FF&E). Look for positive spillovers in hotel-worker housing—the government has flagged 1,000 worker units alongside the hotel pipeline, a niche ripe for PPPs and workforce-housing investors.

Risks to watch: Insurance premiums (post-Beryl), construction input costs (cement/steel), and permitting timelines. But in net terms, the hospitality investment outlook is the strongest in the Caribbean, with Jamaica clearly in expansion mode.

3) Commercial real estate: office, retail, and industrial/logistics

a) Office—BPO-anchored demand remains the bright spot

Jamaica’s BPO/Global Services ecosystem—concentrated in Montego Bay, Kingston, Portmore, and St. Catherine—continues to drive absorption for modern, efficient floorplates. A government still focused on jobs, skills, and nearshoring is likely to keep courting tenants and facilitating fit-outs. For developers, plug-and-play BPO campuses with resilient power, redundant connectivity, and transport access remain highly bankable, often backed by USD-linked leases. (JAMPRO’s messaging and policy continuity will keep this sector in focus.) While island-wide, legacy office stock may see flat rents, the A-class BPO and corporate hubs can sustain rent growth and low vacancies. [General policy continuity; sector widely reported in JAMPRO communications and trade press.]

b) Retail—tourism nodes and commuter corridors

Retail footprints tied to tourism clusters (Hip Strip, Rose Hall, Negril corridors) and fast-growing commuter belts (Spanish Town, Portmore, St. Catherine North) benefit from rising visitor spend and post-pandemic normalization. Anchored centers with grocery, quick-service, and entertainment are showing resilience. Expect experiential retail adjacent to new hotels and cruise revitalizations. [Supported indirectly by tourism surge and hotel pipeline data above.]

c) Industrial & logistics—SEZs, ports, and the “nearshore” thesis

Jamaica’s geography and logistics ambitions (Kingston port, air cargo out of Montego Bay/Kingston) keep industrial/warehouse demand on an upward trajectory, especially as supply chains diversify closer to the U.S. Continued encouragement of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and logistics parks should translate into build-to-suit and speculative warehouse projects where utilities and road access are reliable. With the JLP’s pro-investment stance intact, expect permitting for last-mile and cold-chain facilities to gradually simplify. [Broader policy continuity; investors should monitor JAMPRO/SEZ policy updates.]

Capital markets angle: If the BOJ maintains 5.75% and inflation remains subdued, cap rates for core industrial/logistics and BPO office can compress modestly, especially for assets with USD-linked leases or USD-earning tenants. Conversely, secondary offices with high capex needs may trade at discounts until refurbishments or re-tenants are clear.

4) Housing, mortgages, and the build-to-rent/workforce opportunity

The national conversation around housing continues to be priority policy. While interest rates are still above pre-2022 levels, the trend toward lower inflation and steady rates aids mortgage affordability at the margin. Where the NHT and private lenders coordinate on innovative products (especially for workforce housing near tourism and BPO zones), there is scope for build-to-rent and rent-to-own models to expand. Developers eyeing hotel-adjacent worker housing will find tailwinds given the pipeline of rooms and the explicit emphasis on worker accommodation in 2025/26 plans.

For higher-end residential tied to foreign buyers, the same macro story—stable inflation, steady rates, strong tourism—supports demand, though price sensitivity to global rate cycles (U.S., Canada, U.K.) still matters. A continued strengthening of title regularisation and digital conveyancing initiatives would further lubricate transaction flow.

5) Infrastructure, planning—and the new Parish of Portmore

Airports & roads: The investment case for hotels and logistics improves when access improves. Sangster International Airport (MBJ) continues a multi-year modernization and capacity upgrade. Road projects—from the South Coast Highway Improvement Project to the Montego Bay Perimeter Road—are geared to reduce travel times and decongest key corridors, supporting both tourism flows and commuter reliability. In practice, the impact shows up as higher feasibility scores for peripheral land parcels, more bankable appraisals, and improved guest satisfaction metrics.

Portmore becomes Jamaica’s 15th parish: In a structural change with clear real-estate implications, Jamaica’s Senate approved the measure to create Portmore as the 15th parish in August 2025. Expect knock-on effects: dedicated parish administration, sharper planning frameworks, and potentially faster approvals for developments aligned with Portmore’s growth strategy. That clarity should be positive for commercial and residential developers—particularly those aligning with transit, social infrastructure, and climate-resilience designs.

6) Security: a critical variable that’s finally moving the right way

Sustained reductions in violent crime have a direct line to investor confidence, insurance costs, and the depth of the tourism season. In 2025, Jamaica saw a historic decline in murders, including the lowest monthly murder count in ~25 years (April) and a ~41–43% YTD reduction at mid-year compared with 2024—figures highlighted by the JCF, ministers, and local media. While methodologies and weekly tallies fluctuate, the direction is unmistakably positive and has been widely reported. Continued progress would be a structural tailwind for both international investors and domestic lenders. That said, rights groups have flagged concerns over an uptick in fatal police shootings, underscoring the need to balance enforcement with accountability to maintain durable gains.

Implications by asset class

Hotels & resort mixed-use

Base case (bullish): With record arrivals and active groundbreakings, expect more FIDs (final investment decisions) on luxury and upper-upscale properties, plus brand conversions and expansions. Debt terms should gradually improve if BOJ holds/lowers rates and inflation stays tame. Look for ancillary revenue plays: beach clubs, branded residences, wellness/medical tourism, and MICE facilities.
Risks: Climate/insurance costs, commodity prices for construction, and global travel shocks. A policy misstep that reignites inflation would also pressure financing.

Industrial & logistics

Base case (constructive): SEZ-tied warehousing, light assembly, cold chain, and last-mile hubs should see persistent demand, especially near ports and growth corridors. Rents likely stable-to-up; spec builds may pencil where power and road access are solid.
Risks: Utility bottlenecks; any slowdown in nearshoring momentum; FX volatility (mitigated by BOJ’s FX-stability focus).

Office (BPO and corporate)

Base case (selective strength): BPO campuses and A-class buildings with redundancy and ESG-forward systems should continue to outperform, backed by job creation policies and tenant expansions. Secondary stock faces capex pressure and potential obsolescence without upgrades.
Risks: Global BPO demand shifts and AI automation (offset in part by upskilling and Jamaica’s cost/location advantages).

Retail

Base case (targeted growth): Nodes tied to tourism zones and high-growth commuter belts should do well, particularly formats that pair convenience with experience (dining, entertainment, services). Co-location with hotels and improved roads enhance catchment.
Risks: E-commerce creep into soft goods; cost inflation for imported inventory.

Residential (market-rate & workforce)

Base case (steady): Rate stability supports mortgages; workforce housing near hotel/BPO job centres is an investable theme—often with public-sector alignment and high social impact. Lifestyle second-home demand remains sensitive to offshore buyer conditions but benefits from airlift and safety gains.

Financing environment and cap-rate dynamics

Rates & spreads: With the policy rate at 5.75% and inflation at 3.3%, real short rates are positive but narrowing. If the BOJ trims again in late 2025/early 2026 (contingent on data), debt service coverage improves and cap-rate compression in prime assets is plausible. Banks will still demand robust pre-leasing and contingency budgets after the 2022–2023 inflation shock.
FX & hedging: The BOJ’s stated aim to preserve relative stability in the FX market helps dollar-linked hotel and BPO leases, though sponsors should keep hedging in term sheets.
Equity: Expect regional family offices, Caribbean pension funds, and Mexico/US-based hotel groups to remain active, often via club deals and programmatic JVs.

Policy continuity likely under a returned JLP

While the final composition of Cabinet and detailed legislative priorities will be announced post-election, recent policy signals offer a guide:

Tourism expansion (Moon Palace groundbreaking; six-hotel fiscal-year plan; luxury wave) suggests continued facilitation of large hospitality projects and worker housing.
Infrastructure upgrades (airports; key corridors) remain central to the investment thesis, improving deal feasibility beyond traditional hotspots.
Security strategy that has coincided with a marked decline in homicides in 2025; maintaining both results and rights safeguards will be crucial to keep investor confidence high.
Macro discipline via an independent central bank posture (inflation targeting; cautious easing) that underpins financing assumptions.

The Portmore effect: a new parish as a development signal

Portmore’s formal elevation to Jamaica’s 15th parish (Senate approval in August 2025) is more than a map change—it’s a planning and governance milestone. Dedicated parish oversight can streamline zoning, infrastructure prioritization, and permitting, making it a strategic focus area for workforce housing, BPO campuses, and retail that serves one of the island’s densest commuter markets. Early movers who align with parish-level plans and community needs will have an edge.

Security as a property fundamental

Investors sometimes treat public safety as an externality; it isn’t. The 2025 data—lowest monthly murders in ~25 years, ~41–43% YTD declines at mid-year—translate into quantifiable benefits: lower risk premiums, more family travel, later-night retail trade, and potentially lower insurance costs over time. Continued transparency and rights-based policing will be essential to lock in the confidence dividend.

What this means right now for investors and developers

Hotels: It’s an execution market. Sponsors with land control, brand alignment, and EPC partners ready to move can capture the upcycle. Underwrite conservatively on insurance and build contingencies for materials. Moon Palace The Grand is a bellwether—expect more large-ticket announcements and secondary projects orbiting these anchors.
Industrial/logistics: Advance shovel-ready sites with utilities locked and environmental clearances in hand. SEZ benefits and port adjacency remain sellable to tenants in nearshore supply chains.
BPO offices: Design for redundancy and wellness (air quality, daylighting, amenities). USD-linked leases or escalation clauses help match liability currency to rent inflows.
Retail: Tie projects to tourism flows and commuter patterns; prioritize placemaking, not just boxes. Mixed-use around hotel corridors can cross-subsidize public realm upgrades.
Workforce housing: Partner with tourism employers and local authorities on hotel-staff housing and transport-linked communities. This can de-risk hotel operations and open financing options with development-impact angles.
Capital markets: If inflation stays near 3–4% and the BOJ maintains/edges down from 5.75%, refi windows should improve in 2026. Prepare data rooms, ESG disclosures, and performance track records now to accelerate transactions when spreads tighten.

Risks & offsets

Storms and climate risk: Hurricane-season shocks can dent monthly arrivals and raise insurance costs. Mitigation: resilient design, elevated MEP, and parametric insurance where available. (The tourism rebound after Beryl underscores sector resilience.)
Global growth & travel: A slowdown in key source markets could temper rate growth. Offsetting factors include diversified airlift and Jamaica’s value proposition versus pricier Caribbean peers.
Construction inflation: Input costs and labor tightness can stretch budgets; early procurement and local supply-chain partnerships help.
Policy execution risk: Momentum depends on follow-through—delivering worker housing, keeping permitting predictable, and sustaining crime declines with accountability.

Twelve- to twenty-four-month outlook: three scenarios

Bull case (40%): Inflation stays ~3–4%; BOJ trims to ~5–5.5% in 2026; arrivals reach or exceed the 5-million goal (stopover + cruise); two to three mega-resorts hit peak construction; Portmore planning accelerates mixed-use nodes; BPO expansions absorb new-build office. Outcome: Cap-rate compression in prime hotel and logistics assets; stronger pipeline financing.

Base case (45%): Inflation in the 4–5% range; BOJ steady at 5.75% most of 2025 then modest cuts; tourism grows high-single digits; hotel projects advance but stagger timelines; industrial steady; office bifurcation continues (A-class strong, legacy stock lags). Outcome: Stable valuations; selective growth in NOI; healthy transaction flow in core assets.

Bear case (15%): Global shock hits travel; hurricane season damages key corridors; inflation re-accelerates >6%; BOJ tightens; construction inflation spikes. Outcome: Project delays; higher cap rates; focus shifts to brownfield/value-add and recapitalizations. (Low probability given current data, but a necessary stress test.)

The verdict: confidence should rise—especially in hotels and high-quality commercial

A renewed JLP mandate, paired with a benign macro mix (sub-4% inflation, steady 5.75% policy rate), record-breaking tourism, visible groundbreakings (Moon Palace), and measurable improvements in public safety, argues for higher investor confidence and increased capital formation in Jamaican real estate. The strongest immediate effects will be in hospitality, logistics/industrial, and BPO-ready office—with workforce housing emerging as a powerful, policy-aligned theme.

Execution now moves to the forefront: delivering hotels on budget, advancing infrastructure, making Portmore’s parish transition an efficiency win, and sustaining security gains with transparency. If those boxes get ticked, Jamaica’s real estate cycle has meaningful room to run.

Sources & key references

BOJ & inflation: BOJ August 2025 hold at 5.75%; inflation 3.3% in July 2025; outlook for 1–3% GDP growth FY2025/26.
Tourism performance and pipeline: 2.3M visitors / US$2.4B earnings H1 2025; record July stopovers; government targets and Moon Palace The Grand groundbreaking; six-hotel/5,600-room plan; room-stock goal 50,000 by 2030.
Security trends: Lowest monthly murders in ~25 years in April 2025; ~41–43% YTD declines reported mid-year; human-rights concerns on fatal police shootings.
Infrastructure & planning: Ongoing airport/road upgrades; Portmore designated 15th parish with Senate approval in August 2025.

If you want, I can tailor this into a press-ready op-ed for business media, or convert it into a client newsletter for your investor list with charts on arrivals, inflation, and the policy rate.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or real estate advice. While care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of information cited from credible sources at the time of writing, Jamaica’s economic, political, and property market conditions may change without notice. Readers and investors are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence and seek professional advice from licensed financial advisors, real estate professionals, or legal counsel before making any investment decisions in Jamaica or elsewhere.