Tropical Storm Melissa continues to move slowly through the Caribbean Sea, about 185 miles south-southeast of Kingston.
The system is expected to strengthen over the next 24–48 hours and could become a hurricane by Friday night or Saturday.
Melissa’s slow motion means Jamaica could experience prolonged heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal flooding, regardless of whether the centre passes directly over the island.
The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for all parishes.
Possible Paths and Scenarios
Because steering currents are weak, forecast uncertainty remains high. Meteorologists are watching three potential paths:
Scenario 1 – Southern Track (Most Likely per NHC)
Melissa moves just south of Jamaica, bringing severe rainfall, gusty winds, and rough seas.
The worst effects will be on the south and eastern parishes.
(Official National Hurricane Center forecast)
Scenario 2 – Direct Hit
Melissa’s eye crosses close to or over Jamaica between Friday night and Saturday afternoon, causing damaging winds, power outages, and flooding across the island.
This could cause roof damage and structural impact to weaker homes.
Scenario 3 – Early Northward Turn
Melissa veers north sooner, brushing eastern Jamaica before moving toward Cuba or Hispaniola.
This reduces wind strength but maintains high rainfall totals and flooding potential, especially in St Thomas, Portland, and St Mary.
Timeline for Jamaica
| Time | Expected Conditions | Advice |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday night (Oct 23) | Outer rainbands arrive; gusty winds. | Finalise preparations, check drains, and charge devices. |
| Friday morning (Oct 24) | Rain becomes widespread. | Avoid travel in flood-prone areas. Secure pets and outdoor items. |
| Friday afternoon–evening | Stronger winds and rising seas. | Shelter in place. Avoid the coast. |
| Friday night → Saturday (Oct 25) | Peak conditions — heavy rain, gusts, and power outages. | Stay indoors, unplug electronics, keep emergency lighting ready. |
| Saturday night → Sunday (Oct 26) | Showers continue; landslides possible. | Check surroundings only after the “All Clear” is given. |
Hazards Overview
- Rainfall: 8–14 inches possible island-wide, higher in mountainous parishes.
- Winds: Tropical-storm strength from Friday; hurricane-force gusts possible late Friday–Saturday.
- Storm Surge: Coastal flooding likely along Kingston Harbour, Clarendon, and St Elizabeth.
- Landslides: Expect slope failures in hilly communities and rural roads.
Advice for Homeowners
Jamaica Homes urges all property owners, landlords, and residents to take immediate steps to protect lives, homes, and investments.
1. Before the Storm
- Inspect Roofs: Ensure zinc sheets and tiles are nailed or strapped down; patch leaks where possible.
- Clear Gutters and Drains: Prevent water build-up near foundations and yards.
- Secure Outdoor Items: Bring in flowerpots, chairs, and tools that can become projectiles in high winds.
- Protect Windows & Doors: Use shutters, plywood, or reinforced glass film where available.
- Backup Power: Charge all devices and prepare backup batteries or generators.
- Document Your Property: Take clear photos of your home and contents for insurance claims.
- Prepare Emergency Kits: Include bottled water, food, medication, flashlights, and first aid supplies.
2. During the Storm
- Stay Indoors: Avoid glass areas and keep away from windows.
- Unplug Appliances: Reduce risk of electrical fires or surges.
- Monitor Updates: Listen to Met Service bulletins and ODPEM alerts.
- Avoid Driving: Roads may flood quickly; vehicles can be swept away in less than two feet of water.
- Check on Neighbours: The elderly and disabled may need extra help securing their homes.
3. After the Storm
- Wait for the All Clear: Do not leave home until ODPEM or the Met Service confirms it’s safe.
- Inspect Carefully: Watch for downed power lines, damaged gas lines, and weakened structures.
- Document Damage: Photograph everything before cleaning or repairing.
- Contact Insurance Providers Promptly: Provide documentation and policy details.
- Beware of Scams: Only hire licensed contractors or certified assessors for repairs.
- Support Community Clean-up Efforts: Assist neighbours where possible; community resilience helps recovery.
Jamaica Homes Commitment
As part of our mission to protect Jamaican property owners and communities, Jamaica Homes will continue monitoring official weather updates and sharing property safety advice through our platform and social channels.
Official & Reliable Information Sources
- Met Service Jamaica – Weather warnings
- National Hurricane Center (NOAA) – Forecast cone and advisories
- ODPEM Jamaica – Emergency coordination updates
- Jamaica Homes Alerts – Property safety and recovery info
Disclaimer
This Jamaica Homes Weather Alert is based on the latest public data from the National Hurricane Center (NOAA), Met Service Jamaica, AccuWeather, and The Weather Channel as of October 23, 2025, at 8:00 PM Jamaica time. Forecasts are subject to change as new data becomes available. Jamaica Homes provides this information for public awareness only and accepts no liability for damages or losses arising from its use. Always follow official instructions from local authorities, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Stay safe, stay informed, and let’s protect our homes together.