Central Bank Projects Recovery; Housing Depends on Resilience

Kingston, Jamaica — 24 February 2026

Jamaicans understand recovery in practical terms. It is the sound of hammers after the winds pass, the blue tarpaulin giving way to permanent roofing, the slow return of electricity and running water. Against that backdrop, the central bank says economic activity could return to “full” recovery from Hurricane Melissa within two to three years — a faster timeline than earlier estimates. But for housing, construction and long-term property security, the true outcome will depend less on the forecast and more on whether the island rebuilds in a way that reduces exposure before the next major weather event.

What the central bank is signalling — and why it matters for property

At a quarterly monetary policy briefing, the central bank indicated that the recovery path now looks quicker than first expected after Melissa crossed Jamaica on 28 October 2025 as a Category 5 hurricane, with the west still facing heavy disruption.

The bank also pointed to a weaker external position for the 2025/26 fiscal year compared with 2024/25, while noting that international reserves remain strong. In plain terms, Jamaica expects to spend more foreign exchange on imports and reconstruction-related needs while parts of the economy are still rebuilding capacity. That matters for real estate because rebuilding is import-heavy—cement, steel, fixtures, heavy equipment, fuel—and those costs flow directly into construction prices, contractor pricing, and ultimately the affordability of repairs and new builds.

Dean Jones, founder of Jamaica Homes, said the recovery timeline should not be misunderstood as a guarantee of housing stability. “We cannot confuse macroeconomic recovery with real security on the ground. GDP may rebound, foreign reserves may hold, but if thousands of homes are rebuilt to the same vulnerable standard, then we are simply resetting the clock for the next disaster. This is the moment when discipline matters — in planning approvals, in construction standards, and in how we finance rebuilding. If we miss that opportunity, the cost will not show up immediately in economic data. It will show up in the next storm.”

The real estate reality: “Economic recovery” is not the same as “housing recovery”

There is a saying Jamaicans use after every major system: “Wi soon build back.” And we do. We clear, we patch, we fix, we move forward. But rebuilding and recovery are not the same thing.

Macro recovery can arrive before household recovery. A country can restart tourism flows, reopen major corridors and stabilise inflation while thousands of families are still living under partial repairs, temporary roofing, informal arrangements or extended displacement. On paper, the economy may look steady. On the ground, many homes are still fragile.

For real estate, the central question is not simply when GDP returns to trend. It is when homes are insurable and structurally sound again; when rental supply returns in heavily damaged parishes; when builders can meet demand without runaway price escalation; and when land and infrastructure are rebuilt in patterns that are safer and serviceable — roads that drain properly, slopes that are stabilised, utilities that can withstand impact.

That is where the two- to three-year estimate becomes conditional. It assumes a clear rebuilding window. Because if another major event arrives before structural repair is complete, “wi soon build back” becomes “wi haffi build back again.” And that repetition is where housing insecurity quietly takes root.ids another high-impact event during the rebuilding window.

If another storm hits before recovery: the pressure points are predictable

A second severe event before the first rebuild cycle is complete would not just “delay” recovery—it would compound three property-market stresses at once:

1) Construction inflation becomes entrenched
Repeated disruption pushes up labour scarcity, material costs, and timelines. Contractors price in uncertainty. Households delay upgrades, which quietly expands the stock of vulnerable housing—especially in areas where repairs are incremental and cash-funded.

2) Lending tightens where risk looks unpriced
Banks and insurers respond to uncertainty by recalibrating risk. That can show up as stricter valuation assumptions, higher insurance requirements for mortgages, more conservative lending in exposed zones, and a wider gap between what owners think a property is worth and what the market will finance.

3) Informal tenure and “survival rebuilding” grows
After disasters, families often rebuild quickly—sometimes without formal approvals, engineered designs, or clear title updates—because shelter can’t wait. Over time, that can create harder-to-insure homes, harder-to-sell properties, and more intergenerational disputes when estates are transferred.

What “preparation” looks like in real estate terms

Dean Jones, said the country must confront the rebuilding phase with urgency and honesty. “We have to stop pretending that rebuilding quickly is the same as rebuilding properly. If we put back zinc where stronger systems are required, if we ignore drainage and slope stability, if we allow development in known risk areas because it feels convenient, then we are setting ourselves up again. And when the next system forms in the Atlantic, we cannot act surprised. We know better now.”

Preparedness is often discussed as an emergency-management topic. But for housing and land, preparedness is mostly about standards, incentives, and enforcement—quiet decisions that shape whether the next storm becomes a national housing crisis.

Resilient rebuilding standards (without turning it into red tape)
Jamaica’s rebuilding phase is a chance to harden the housing stock: roof-to-wall connections, wind-resistant detailing, flood-smart siting, better drainage, and stronger critical infrastructure that supports communities (roads, bridges, water systems). If rebuild quality improves, the next storm causes less displacement—and the property market stabilises faster after shocks.

Land-use realism: stop rebuilding risk into the map
When people rebuild in flood-prone zones, unstable slopes, or coastal strips without meaningful mitigation, losses repeat. A practical approach is not mass relocation rhetoric, but clearer risk mapping, infrastructure-first investment, and phased policies that guide new development toward safer and serviceable land.

Insurance and disaster-risk financing that reaches households
A national buffer is not the same as household coverage. The gap between insured and uninsured losses is where housing insecurity lives. Jamaica has already moved to secure sizeable external financing for reconstruction, but household-level resilience still depends on whether insurance penetration rises and whether recovery support is designed to rebuild safer, not just rebuild fast.

Mortgage forbearance, repair financing, and valuation discipline
If the financial system treats resilient repair as a “nice-to-have,” vulnerable housing persists. If it treats it as value-preserving—and offers sensible pathways for repair loans and staged rebuilding—then owners can restore equity rather than watch it erode.

A measured warning hidden inside an optimistic forecast

The central bank’s improved recovery estimate is undeniably encouraging. It suggests the economy is regaining momentum sooner than feared and that Jamaica’s macroeconomic buffers remain intact. On paper, that is stability.

But real estate does not recover on paper. It recovers in foundations, elevations, drainage corridors and engineering discipline. Jamaica’s housing future will be determined less by the forecast itself and more by what is constructed — where development is permitted, how buildings are reinforced, and whether resilience becomes embedded rather than optional. A two- to three-year macroeconomic rebound can still conceal a far longer housing repair cycle if rebuilding quietly restores yesterday’s weaknesses.

The deeper issue is not whether this recovery takes two years or four. It is whether the country uses this rebuilding window to permanently reduce exposure. Storms are not anomalies in Jamaica’s story — they are recurring chapters. The true measure of recovery is not how quickly activity resumes, but whether vulnerability declines. If the housing stock that emerges from this period is stronger, safer and more intelligently sited, then this moment will mark progress. If not, the timeline will prove irrelevant. The next system will simply test what we chose to build — and what we chose to ignore.