Gaza’s Eleven-Day War, Vaccine Inequity and Colombia’s Unrest: The Caribbean Navigates a Complex Recovery

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 July 2021 | Reporting Period: 3 April – 2 July 2021

Quarterly Briefing

• An 11-day armed conflict between Israel and Hamas in May kills 260 Palestinians and 13 Israelis; a ceasefire takes hold on May 21.
• Global vaccine inequality widens as wealthy nations administer millions of doses while Caribbean and developing countries wait months behind.
• Colombia erupts in mass protests against the government of Iván Duque from late April; weeks of unrest shake South America’s third-largest economy.
• Russia conducts a large-scale military build-up near Ukraine’s borders before partially withdrawing; tensions remain unresolved.
• Global shipping costs reach record highs; Caribbean import bills for goods from Asia surge.
• Jamaica reopens its borders cautiously; tourism bookings are tentatively recovering but the pace of recovery remains fragile.

Prologue: Recovery Uneven, Risks Unresolved

The second quarter of 2021 was, for much of the developed world, a period of vaccine-led recovery from the worst public health crisis in a century. For the Caribbean, it was something more complicated: a period of watching others recover while access to the vaccines that would allow a full reopening remained constrained by a global distribution system that systematically prioritised wealthy nations. The result was a Caribbean summer season that opened cautiously, with some resort properties welcoming back visitors from vaccinated source markets, but with most of the region still well short of the vaccination rates that would allow a full, confident, sustainable return to pre-pandemic normalcy.

Gaza: Eleven Days of War

On 10 May 2021, violence that had been building around the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem and in the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood escalated into an armed exchange between Hamas in Gaza and the Israeli military. Hamas launched thousands of rockets toward Israeli cities; Israel conducted hundreds of airstrikes across Gaza. The eleven-day conflict killed approximately 260 Palestinians in Gaza, including an estimated 66 children, and 13 people in Israel. On 21 May, a ceasefire brokered by Egypt took effect and both sides stood down. Caribbean governments and CARICOM issued statements calling for the protection of civilian life and adherence to international law, consistent with the region’s diplomatic tradition of supporting Palestinian rights while calling for a two-state solution.

Vaccine Inequality and the Caribbean’s Delayed Recovery

By mid-2021, the United States had administered more than 300 million vaccine doses and was offering them to anyone who walked into a pharmacy. Caribbean nations remained dependent on COVAX and bilateral donations from the United States, China and India, all of which arrived more slowly and in smaller quantities than the Caribbean’s vaccination targets required. For Jamaica, vaccination rates were still well below what would be needed for a full and confident tourism reopening without restrictions — leaving the country in a contested middle ground: open to tourists from vaccinated markets but unable to fully guarantee the health security that full operator confidence required.

Colombia’s Protests and South American Instability

From late April 2021, mass protests swept Colombia following a proposed tax reform that opponents argued would disproportionately burden lower-income households already struggling under COVID-related economic pressures. The tax reform was subsequently withdrawn, but the protests continued for weeks, evolving into a broader expression of discontent about police violence and economic inequality. Dozens of protesters were killed in clashes with security forces. Colombia — South America’s third-largest economy and a significant US security partner — was shaken by its longest period of civil unrest in years. For the Caribbean, the protests were a signal of how pandemic-era economic consequences were generating political pressure that formal indicators did not capture.

Russia-Ukraine: The First Build-Up

In April 2021, satellite imagery and media reports documented a significant Russian military build-up near Ukraine’s borders that Western analysts assessed as capable of supporting offensive operations. By late April and May, Russia withdrew many of the deployed units, describing it as the conclusion of scheduled exercises. Whatever its purpose, the episode established a pattern of Russian military pressure on Ukraine and Western alarm. For Caribbean energy markets, any escalation involving Russian energy exports to Europe would have immediate oil price implications.

Global Shipping Costs: A New Structural Challenge

The extraordinary rise in global container shipping costs was one of the most practically significant economic stories of 2021 for the Caribbean. Pandemic-era disruptions had sent freight rates from Asia to the US and Caribbean markets to multiples of pre-pandemic norms. The Suez Canal blockage by the Ever Given in March had dramatised global supply chain fragility. By mid-2021, shipping a standard container from China to Kingston was costing three to five times the 2019 price — a significant additional cost pressure on Jamaican importers of manufactured goods, consumer electronics and industrial inputs.

Jamaica: Cautious Reopening

Jamaica’s tourism sector was cautiously reopening as Q2 2021 closed. The government maintained its policy of keeping the border open with testing and health protocols, preserving the country’s reputation as an accessible destination. Summer 2021 bookings were recovering, particularly from US travellers whose high vaccination rates and pandemic savings were generating an appetite for travel. Hotels in Montego Bay and the resort parishes were reporting improving occupancy. Jamaica’s real estate market was one of the domestic economy’s strongest performers, with diaspora purchasing sustaining demand across market segments and NHT mortgage approvals tracking above the previous year.

Looking Ahead

The third quarter of 2021 opens with the Caribbean’s vaccination rollout still incomplete but accelerating, the summer tourism season underway, and Haiti entering a particularly fraught period: President Moïse is governing by decree amid a disputed election timetable, rising gang violence and international pressure to convene elections. The geopolitical environment — Russia-Ukraine tensions unresolved, the Middle East ceasefire fragile, Afghanistan’s government facing a Taliban offensive as US forces withdraw — is complex and volatile. Caribbean economies that are still rebuilding from COVID’s devastation have limited capacity to absorb new external shocks.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.