Caribbean Property & Investment Review — Edition 61 — July 2021

Publication Date: 3 July 2021  |  Coverage Period: 3 June – 2 July 2021

Morning Briefing

• The Cayman Islands announces its formal reopening framework for vaccinated travellers, with a phased approach beginning in September 2021 — ending one of the most protracted travel closures in the Caribbean and triggering a wave of property inquiry from high-net-worth buyers.
• Jamaica launches its Remote Work Stamp programme in late June 2021, positioning the island alongside Barbados as a leading Caribbean destination for international remote workers and digital nomads seeking extended stays.
• Caribbean vaccination campaigns continue to accelerate, with several territories now reporting adult vaccination rates above 40%, and COVAX deliveries supplemented by bilateral agreements providing a more secure supply pipeline into Q3 2021.
• Caribbean mortgage markets remain stable with historically low interest rates, as regional central banks maintain accommodative monetary policy in support of economic recovery — a backdrop that continues to encourage property financing for qualified buyers.
• Guyana’s oil production continues its expansion trajectory, with ExxonMobil confirming that the Liza Phase 2 development is on track for first production in early 2022, maintaining the investment momentum that has driven Georgetown’s construction boom.
• Haitian political crisis deepens following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July, creating severe uncertainty in an already fragile property market and raising regional security concerns.

Travel Corridors Open: The Vaccinated Traveller Dividend

June and early July 2021 have seen a meaningful expansion of travel corridors specifically designed to facilitate movement by vaccinated visitors. The United Kingdom’s traffic light system, while imperfect and frequently revised, has created a framework that places several Caribbean destinations in the green or amber categories, enabling UK-vaccinated travellers to visit without quarantine requirements. The United States has not implemented an equivalent system, but the high US vaccination rate combined with relaxed CDC domestic guidelines has translated into increased outbound leisure travel to Caribbean destinations.

For Caribbean property markets, the emergence of travel corridors for vaccinated visitors represents the first significant structural improvement in the operating environment for short-term rental properties since March 2020. Villa and condo owners who have maintained their properties through eighteen months of disrupted or absent tourism income are beginning to see bookings materialise from precisely the demographic — fully vaccinated, older, affluent — that has historically driven premium Caribbean rental demand. The combination of pent-up demand, accumulated savings from restricted pandemic-era spending, and growing confidence in travel safety is creating conditions for a genuine summer recovery in rental revenues.

Real estate agents across the region are reporting a corresponding uptick in buyer enquiries from international clients who either visit and experience the destination during extended stays or conduct their property search remotely using virtual tour technology. The correlation between tourism recovery and property buyer activity is well-established in the Caribbean market, and the early signs of travel corridor expansion are being felt in both the rental and sales segments of the market.

Cayman Islands: The High-Net-Worth Market’s Moment

The announcement by the Cayman Islands government of a phased reopening framework for fully vaccinated travellers, targeting September 2021, is significant news for one of the Caribbean’s most exclusive and financially sophisticated property markets. The Cayman Islands had maintained among the most restrictive border controls in the entire Caribbean through the pandemic — a strategy that successfully protected its population from significant COVID-19 mortality but at the cost of near-complete suppression of visitor arrivals for over a year.

The luxury property market in Grand Cayman — particularly the Seven Mile Beach corridor and the emerging Rum Point and Cayman Kai areas — serves a clientele of ultra-high-net-worth individuals, predominantly from the United States, who value the territory’s financial stability, US dollar economy, zero direct taxation, and exceptional residential infrastructure. This buyer community did not disappear during the pandemic; it simply deferred decisions and accumulated further financial capacity while waiting for access to be restored. Property agents who have been maintaining relationships with interested buyers through the closure period are expecting a significant surge in transaction activity as the reopening is confirmed.

Luxury waterfront property on Seven Mile Beach has experienced minimal price concession during the pandemic, supported by a combination of seller financial strength (few distressed disposals), very limited new supply, and the sustained aspiration demand from a global ultra-wealthy client base. The reopening, when it comes, is likely to see demand exceed available supply in the premium segments, creating upward pricing pressure that could make 2022 the strongest year on record for Cayman luxury property values.

Property Market Resilience: A Mid-Year Assessment

At the midpoint of 2021, the Caribbean property market’s performance through the pandemic has been considerably more resilient than most analysts predicted at the onset of the crisis in early 2020. The key drivers of this resilience deserve examination, as they shed light on the structural characteristics of the market and the likely trajectory through recovery.

The first and perhaps most important factor has been the financial profile of international property buyers in the Caribbean. Unlike the mass-market residential property sectors of major cities, where buyers are often leveraged to the limit of available mortgage financing, Caribbean international buyers are disproportionately cash purchasers or conservative borrowers with significant equity. When tourism income evaporated, these owners generally had the financial resources to absorb the rental income loss without being forced to sell — and indeed, many chose to hold, recognising that distressed selling into a disrupted market would simply crystallise a loss.

The second factor has been the sustained and, in many markets, record-high flow of remittances from Caribbean diaspora communities to families in the region. These transfers have supported household incomes, sustained mortgage payments, and in some cases funded property purchases by families using diaspora income to acquire their first or second home. Jamaica, Barbados, and several eastern Caribbean island states have all reported remittance volumes running well above historical averages through 2020 and into 2021, providing a floor to local property demand that has prevented the price declines that might otherwise have materialised.

The third factor is the historically low interest rate environment that has prevailed globally since 2020. Caribbean mortgage markets, while not as directly linked to global rates as US or European markets, have benefited from the regional central banks’ accommodative stance. The Bank of Jamaica maintained accommodative policy through the crisis, and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank similarly held rates at supportive levels. For buyers with access to mortgage financing, the cost of servicing debt in 2021 is lower in nominal terms than at any point in recent memory, which improves the financial case for property acquisition.

Vaccination Progress: Uneven But Advancing

Caribbean vaccination campaigns have made meaningful progress since the first doses were administered in February and March 2021, but the picture across the region remains uneven. British Overseas Territories — including the Cayman Islands, Turks and Caicos, Anguilla, and Montserrat — have benefited from early and plentiful access to UK-procured vaccines and have in several cases achieved high adult vaccination rates that compare favourably with the UK itself. Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago have also achieved above-average regional vaccination coverage.

Independent Caribbean nations dependent on COVAX allocations have faced more constrained supply chains, though the pace of deliveries improved through late spring and early summer 2021. Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and several OECS nations are pushing to accelerate their campaigns before the peak hurricane season months, when the logistics of simultaneous pandemic and storm response would be particularly challenging. Vaccine hesitancy remains a complicating factor in several jurisdictions, requiring sustained public health communication efforts to maintain uptake momentum.

Caribbean Leaders This Month

Cayman Islands leads regional news with its reopening framework announcement. The luxury property market, which has experienced a year of suppressed transaction volumes, is expected to see a significant surge in buyer activity as the September reopening date approaches and international visitors can once again evaluate properties in person.

Jamaica is capitalising on the travel recovery moment with the simultaneous launch of its Remote Work Stamp and strong summer tourism marketing. The north coast resort corridor is seeing improving occupancy, and the broader property market is benefiting from the positive narrative momentum.

Barbados maintains its established position as the Caribbean’s digital nomad leader while preparing for what may be a historically significant constitutional transition later in the year. Property values on the island remain firm, supported by strong international buyer interest.

Dominican Republic continues to lead the region in total visitor volumes, leveraging its diverse accommodation offering and aggressive airlift marketing. The real estate market, particularly for resort-adjacent condominiums and residential communities, remains active and internationally well-patronised.

Guyana advances steadily on its oil-driven development trajectory. Georgetown commercial and residential property remains in strong demand, and the government’s infrastructure investment programme is beginning to open new development corridors.

Haiti confronts an acute political and security crisis following the presidential assassination that compounds the pre-existing fragility of the country’s economy and property market. The situation demands careful monitoring by regional investors.

Antigua and Barbuda reports continued CBI programme momentum, with real estate investment track applications sustaining developer project financing across the island’s expanding resort and residential portfolio.

St Lucia is seeing renewed developer interest in the Rodney Bay and Cap Estate areas as the island’s tourism recovery builds, with new residential projects being progressed cautiously given the construction cost environment.

Looking Ahead

The third quarter of 2021 is the critical period for confirming whether the Caribbean’s tourism and property market recovery has genuine momentum or whether it remains fragile and subject to interruption. The Atlantic hurricane season is now fully underway, and the Delta variant is creating uncertainty in source markets. These two headwinds could, in combination, disrupt the recovery that the travel corridor openings and vaccination programmes have begun to enable.

On the positive side, the pipeline of pent-up demand — from both tourists and property buyers — is real and substantial. The eighteen months of deferred Caribbean holidays, deferred property purchases, and deferred investment decisions represent a reservoir of demand that will flow back into the market as confidence is restored. The key question is timing: how quickly will this demand translate into bookings and transactions, and will the supply of quality properties be sufficient to meet it?

The overall assessment at mid-2021 is that Caribbean property markets have navigated the pandemic with remarkable structural stability, that the drivers of recovery are strengthening, and that the second half of 2021 should deliver measurably better conditions for property owners and investors than the first half. The Cayman Islands reopening, Jamaica’s Remote Work Stamp, and the advancing vaccination campaigns all point in the same positive direction. The risks are real but manageable, and the fundamental case for Caribbean property investment remains intact.

The Caribbean Property & Investment Review is published monthly, providing analysis of real estate markets, investment trends, and economic developments across the Caribbean region.