Omicron, Russia’s Ukraine Build-Up and COP26: How the World Entered 2022 on Edge

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 January 2022 | Reporting Period: 3 October – 2 January 2022

Quarterly Briefing

• The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is identified in South Africa in late November and spreads globally within weeks; new travel restrictions follow.
• Russia masses more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border; the US and NATO warn of potential invasion and begin intensive diplomacy.
• COP26 climate summit in Glasgow concludes in November with a renewed but contested commitment to limit warming to 1.5°C.
• Haiti’s political and security crisis deepens following President Moïse’s July assassination; no elections have been held and gang violence accelerates.
• Protests over fuel prices erupt in Kazakhstan as the new year begins, triggering a CSTO intervention request.
• Jamaica’s tourism sector shows its first sustained recovery signs; the Bank of Jamaica begins raising interest rates as inflation builds.

Prologue: A Nervous New Year

The world entered January 2022 in a condition of multiple unresolved uncertainties. A new COVID variant had upended the optimism of the summer reopening and demonstrated that the pandemic remained capable of reinventing itself faster than public health systems could respond. A Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s border had reached a scale that Western intelligence agencies assessed as a genuine invasion threat, even as diplomacy continued urgently in the final days of December. Climate negotiators in Glasgow had concluded their most consequential summit in years with agreements that fell short of what scientists said was needed. And Haiti, Jamaica’s closest neighbour in crisis, had spent six months without a president and with gang networks expanding their control of the capital.

For Jamaica and the Caribbean, the quarter was a lesson in the speed at which geopolitical and epidemiological risk can migrate from a distant signal to a local reality. Omicron’s emergence in late November and its rapid global spread forced renewed travel uncertainty just as tourism bookings were recovering. Oil prices, already elevated, were volatile in response to Russia-Ukraine tensions and OPEC production debates. The region ended 2021 with cautious momentum but entered 2022 with new layers of uncertainty stacked on unresolved old ones.

Omicron and the Pandemic’s Next Chapter

Scientists in South Africa first reported the B.1.1.529 variant — designated Omicron by the WHO — on 24 November 2021. Within days, it had been detected on every inhabited continent. Its extraordinary transmissibility — initial data suggested it spread two to three times faster than Delta — drove a rapid policy response: travel bans targeting southern Africa, restrictions on international arrivals and renewed mask and social distancing requirements across Europe and North America. By the end of December, Omicron was the dominant strain in the United States, the United Kingdom and much of Europe, driving infection numbers to record highs even as early data suggested its severity was somewhat lower than Delta’s.

For Jamaica and the Caribbean, Omicron’s emergence was deeply unwelcome. The tourism sector had been building momentum through the second half of 2021 as vaccination rates in source markets — the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom — rose and travel confidence returned. The winter 2021–22 booking season had been tracking as the first genuine recovery period after the catastrophic losses of 2020. Omicron’s arrival created a wave of booking cancellations and renewed uncertainty that the region had hoped to leave behind. Jamaica’s government maintained its open-borders policy with testing requirements, betting that the variant’s apparent lower severity would allow the season to continue. The outcome would only become clear through January and February.

Russia, Ukraine and the Threat of War in Europe

Throughout November and December 2021, satellite imagery and intelligence assessments shared by Western governments documented a Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders that grew to more than 100,000 troops with associated armour, artillery and logistical support. The Russian government denied any intention to invade but submitted formal demands to the United States and NATO that would, if accepted, effectively prohibit any future NATO enlargement and roll back NATO presence in Eastern Europe. Western governments rejected the demands as incompatible with the principle of sovereign nations’ freedom to choose their own alliances.

The Biden administration orchestrated an intensive diplomatic effort through December: a direct video call between Biden and Putin, emergency consultations with NATO allies, and warnings that an invasion would be met with “severe” economic sanctions. Russia’s intentions were not clear as January 2022 began. Many analysts assessed that the build-up was primarily a coercive tool to extract diplomatic concessions rather than a genuine invasion plan. Others noted that the scale of the deployment — including field hospitals, blood supplies and engineering equipment — was consistent with preparation for major offensive operations. As this edition is published, diplomatic talks are continuing and the outcome is genuinely uncertain.

For Caribbean economies, the Russia-Ukraine standoff had an immediate energy market dimension. Oil prices, already above $70 per barrel from the post-COVID demand recovery, were sensitive to any escalation that might disrupt Russian energy exports to Europe. A full-scale conflict, and the severe Western sanctions that would follow, could push oil prices sharply higher — a deeply unwelcome outcome for Caribbean fuel importers who had already seen petrol and diesel prices climb significantly through 2021.

COP26: Glasgow’s Climate Reckoning

The 26th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC — COP26 — convened in Glasgow, Scotland, from 1–12 November and produced the Glasgow Climate Pact, which for the first time included language calling for a phase-down (not phase-out) of unabated coal use. Countries including the United States, EU members, India and China made a range of emissions reduction commitments, though independent analysts assessed these were insufficient to keep warming within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels — the threshold that climate science indicates is critical for the survival of low-lying island states.

For the Caribbean, COP26’s outcome was both progress and disappointment. The explicit recognition of the 1.5°C threshold and the formal acknowledgement that existing commitments were inadequate were meaningful gains for which CARICOM negotiators had pushed for years. The failure to agree on adequate loss and damage finance mechanisms — funding to compensate vulnerable nations for climate impacts they are already experiencing — was a significant setback. Jamaica and other Caribbean SIDS (Small Island Developing States) left Glasgow with stronger language in the text but without the financial commitments their populations urgently needed.

Haiti: Six Months Without a President

Haiti began 2022 in its seventh month of acute political crisis following the July 7, 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. No elections had been held; Prime Minister Ariel Henry governed under a constitutional mandate of disputed legitimacy. Gang networks, particularly the G9 coalition led by Jimmy Chérizier, had expanded their territorial control across Port-au-Prince and into surrounding departments. Kidnappings for ransom — targeting both wealthy Haitians and foreign nationals, including in October 2021 a group of 17 missionary workers from the United States and Canada seized by the 400 Mawozo gang — had become a regular feature of daily life for middle-class communities in the capital.

CARICOM had been actively involved in Haiti’s political transition process, hosting dialogue among Haitian stakeholders and pressing for a negotiated political agreement that could lead to elections. Jamaica remained one of the most engaged CARICOM members in this effort. The humanitarian situation — severe food insecurity affecting millions, cholera risk, near-complete breakdown of basic services in gang-controlled areas — continued to worsen with no effective international security response in place.

Jamaica: Cautious Recovery, Rising Costs

Jamaica’s economy ended 2021 with the clearest signs of genuine recovery since the pandemic began. GDP growth for 2021 was tracking at above 4 per cent as tourism, construction and services rebounded. The National Housing Trust’s housing starts and mortgage approvals reached post-pandemic highs. Private developers were active across the market spectrum. But inflationary pressures were building: global shipping costs — which had quadrupled from pre-pandemic levels due to container shortages and port congestion — were raising the price of virtually every imported good, from food to construction materials to consumer electronics. The Bank of Jamaica raised its policy interest rate from 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent in October 2021 and signalled further increases ahead, beginning what would become a significant tightening cycle.

The housing and real estate market was one of the brightest areas of the Jamaican economy as 2022 began. Pent-up demand from the pandemic’s two years of suppressed purchasing activity, combined with diaspora interest in residential property, was supporting prices and construction volumes. The challenge ahead was whether rising mortgage rates and construction input costs would compress affordability faster than income growth could compensate.

Looking Ahead

January 2022 has opened with protests in Kazakhstan over fuel price rises escalating into unrest that has prompted Russia-led CSTO military intervention — a reminder that commodity price pressures can have political consequences well beyond the Caribbean. The Russia-Ukraine standoff remains unresolved. Omicron’s trajectory through the winter season will determine whether Jamaica’s tourism recovery can sustain its momentum. As the world begins its third year of living with COVID-19, the Caribbean’s resilience is genuine but not unlimited. The test of 2022 will be severe.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.