Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora & Returnee Update — July to September 2023

Published: 2 October 2023 | Jamaica Homes News

Key Takeaways

• Remittances normalising below 2022 pace: Bank of Jamaica data through the third quarter confirmed that 2023 remittance inflows were running below the 2022 pace on a cumulative basis, continuing the post-pandemic normalisation trend. The first two months of 2023 had generated approximately US$500 million in inflows — a figure that maintained the broad scale of Jamaica’s remittance corridor even as the exceptional pandemic-era volumes receded.
• Q2 2023 GDP grew 2.3 per cent: The Planning Institute of Jamaica confirmed growth of 2.3 per cent in the April–June 2023 quarter, with the Services and Goods Producing Industries growing 2.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively. Q3 2023 data was expected from PIOJ later in the year.
• Active 2023 hurricane season, Jamaica spared a direct strike: The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season proved above average in activity, with multiple named storms tracking through the Caribbean. Jamaica maintained its emergency preparedness posture through the season but was not directly impacted by any major storm, avoiding the kind of economic disruption that a direct hit would have caused.
• National Diaspora Policy deepening implementation: Adopted by Cabinet in November 2022, the National Diaspora Policy continued to guide the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade’s diaspora engagement work, with sector-specific implementation working groups active and the policy’s institutional architecture being progressively built out.
• Windrush Compensation Scheme: continued advocacy: The United Kingdom’s Windrush Compensation Scheme remained a live issue for Jamaica’s diaspora in Britain, with community advocates documenting ongoing challenges in the scheme’s operation and continuing to push for faster, more generous, and more transparent compensation processing for affected community members.
• 9th Biennial Diaspora Conference outcomes: post-conference implementation: Outcomes and commitments from the 9th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference, held in 2022, were being progressed through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade and partner agencies, with working group recommendations on investment, housing, skills transfer, and youth development translating into specific policy and programme developments.

Introduction: A Quiet Quarter in the Eye of the Season

The third quarter of 2023 was, by the standards of Jamaica’s recent diaspora history, a relatively quiet one. There was no biennial conference to dominate the agenda, no hurricane making direct landfall on the island, and no major immigration crisis to mobilise community organisations and diplomatic missions into emergency mode. What the quarter offered instead was the steady, unglamorous work of diaspora engagement: remittances flowing, workers completing their Canadian seasonal placements, returnees settling into their parishes, deportees being received and processed, and the machinery of government working through the implementation agenda of the National Diaspora Policy.

The broader context was one of careful management of competing pressures. The global inflationary environment that had characterised 2022 was easing, but its legacy — elevated food and energy prices, squeezed real wages for lower-income workers in the diaspora’s primary source markets, and tighter monetary conditions that reduced available credit and consumer spending — continued to influence remittance sender behaviour. The UK, in particular, remained in the grip of a cost-of-living crisis that was suppressing real incomes and discretionary spending among the British-Jamaican community.

This quarterly update draws on the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Nationwide News Network, RJR News, Caribbean National Weekly, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, and PICA to compile the record of Q3 2023 diaspora developments.

Remittances: Post-Pandemic Normalisation Continues

Jamaica’s 2023 remittance performance continued the post-pandemic normalisation trajectory established in 2022. The Jamaica Gleaner had reported in April 2023 that the first two months of the year had generated approximately US$500 million in inflows — a figure broadly consistent with 2022’s monthly run rate and providing a stable foundation for the year’s total, even as full-quarter data showed cumulative flows running modestly below the equivalent 2022 period.

The United States remained the dominant source market, with American labour market conditions — which remained remarkably resilient despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increases — providing strong underlying support for Jamaican-American senders’ capacity. Jamaican-American workers in healthcare, construction, transportation, and the service sector were generally well employed, and wage growth across these sectors had provided a modest uplift in real earning power even after adjusting for inflation.

The UK presented a more challenging picture. The British economy’s cost-of-living crisis, which peaked in late 2022 and persisted through much of 2023, had compressed real wages across the income distribution, with lower-income workers — a category in which Jamaican-British workers are disproportionately represented, particularly in care, hospitality, and transport — experiencing the most severe squeeze. BOJ data through mid-2023 showed UK remittance contributions growing at a slower rate than US flows, consistent with the differential economic conditions between the two source markets.

Digital transfer platforms continued to gain market share through the quarter. Application-based services that allowed Jamaican-American and Jamaican-British senders to transfer money instantaneously at reduced fees were drawing volume away from traditional over-the-counter providers — a trend that was making remittances more accessible and affordable but also reshaping the competitive landscape of the money transfer industry and reducing the revenues available to fund agent network expansion in underserved Jamaican communities.

Economic Performance: Q2 2023 at 2.3 Per Cent

The Planning Institute of Jamaica confirmed that Jamaica’s economy grew by 2.3 per cent in the April–June 2023 quarter, compared to Q2 2022. The Services Industry grew by 2.2 per cent and the Goods Producing Industry by 2.6 per cent, with tourism, finance, and insurance among the services performers and agriculture and construction contributing to the goods-producing growth. The figure represented a modest deceleration from 2022’s exceptional growth pace, as the base effects of post-pandemic recovery normalised and the global demand environment became more competitive.

For Q3 2023, the economy was expected to maintain broadly positive growth, though PIOJ’s formal estimates for July–September 2023 were not yet available as of this report’s publication. The tourism sector was performing well through the summer, with strong visitor arrivals and buoyant hospitality sector revenues providing positive contributions. Agriculture faced some weather-related challenges through the quarter, with intermittent dry conditions in some parishes affecting yield, though no catastrophic weather event disrupted production.

The Bank of Jamaica’s monetary policy settings through Q3 2023 reflected a more cautious stance as inflation remained above the medium-term target range. Interest rates had been adjusted upward through 2022 in response to global inflationary pressures, and the BOJ was monitoring the transmission of those adjustments through the economy while remaining alert to the impact of monetary tightening on growth.

Hurricane Season 2023: Active but Jamaica Spared

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season proved more active than average, with multiple named storms developing through July, August, and September. The Caribbean generally — and Jamaica specifically — maintained heightened emergency preparedness through the season, with the National Emergency Management Organisation, the Jamaica Meteorological Service, and parish-level disaster risk management teams conducting readiness exercises and updating community preparedness plans.

Jamaica was not directly struck by any significant system during Q3 2023, though tropical weather systems that passed through the broader Caribbean region generated heavy rainfall events in some parishes and required precautionary measures. The absence of a direct hurricane strike was a significant economic positive: the contrast with years like 2004 (Ivan), 2007 (Dean), 2012 (Sandy’s near-miss), and 2024’s Beryl illustrated how dramatically a direct strike can alter an entire year’s economic trajectory.

For the diaspora, the hurricane season served as an annual reminder of Jamaica’s climate vulnerability and the role of diaspora giving as an emergency safety net. Community organisations in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom maintained their disaster response contact networks in active readiness through the season, prepared to mobilise fundraising and supply networks quickly if needed. The fact that the call did not come in 2023 was a relief, but the readiness infrastructure built through the season would prove valuable in subsequent years.

National Diaspora Policy: Implementation Progress

The National Diaspora Policy, adopted by Jamaica’s Cabinet in November 2022, continued to guide the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade’s diaspora engagement agenda through Q3 2023. The policy’s implementation involved the progressive development of institutional architecture: sector-specific working groups that brought together diaspora community leaders, Jamaican government agencies, and private sector representatives to develop concrete investment pipeline proposals; a monitoring and evaluation framework to track the policy’s outcomes; and engagement with international development partners including the International Organization for Migration and the World Bank on diaspora investment facilitation best practice.

The policy represented Jamaica’s most formal and comprehensive attempt to date to move diaspora engagement from an ad hoc, relationship-dependent exercise to a systematic, measurable programme of development cooperation. Its ambition was significant: to leverage Jamaica’s 3–4 million strong global diaspora as a development resource comparable in scale and potential to foreign direct investment or official development assistance. The implementation challenge was equally significant — translating diaspora goodwill into structured investment required building trust, legal frameworks, financial instruments, and communication channels that did not yet fully exist.

9th Biennial Conference: Post-Conference Follow-Through

The 9th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference, held in 2022 — the first in-person conference following the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruption of the 2021 biennial — had generated a substantive set of commitments and recommendations across the full range of diaspora policy areas. By Q3 2023, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade was engaged in translating those commitments into operational reality, working through the sector-specific follow-up mechanisms established at the conference and tracking progress against the working group recommendations.

The conference had addressed diaspora investment, skills transfer, housing for returnees, youth empowerment, diaspora health, and the protection of Jamaicans’ rights abroad. Each of these areas required sustained inter-ministerial coordination, engagement with diaspora community partners, and in some cases legislative or regulatory action to create the enabling environment for diaspora contributions. The pace of follow-through varied across policy areas, with some commitments progressing more rapidly than others.

Windrush Compensation Scheme: Advocacy Continues

The United Kingdom’s Windrush Compensation Scheme — established by the British government to compensate members of the Windrush generation who had been wrongly denied rights, detained, or deported as a consequence of the Home Office’s hostile environment policies — continued to be a source of ongoing concern and advocacy in Q3 2023. Community organisations including the Windrush Justice Clinic and numerous diaspora advocacy groups documented the scheme’s inadequacies: claims processing that was slow and opaque; compensation amounts that were frequently contested as inadequate; and a government posture that critics characterised as defensive rather than remedial.

For Jamaica’s diplomatic mission in London, the Windrush issue remained a live consular and bilateral priority. The High Commission maintained active engagement with affected Jamaicans and their families, providing documentary support, referrals to legal advocacy services, and diplomatic representations to the UK government on behalf of claimants whose cases raised systemic concerns. The Jamaican government’s consistent position — that the Windrush scandal represented an egregious failure of the United Kingdom’s obligations to Commonwealth citizens who had built their lives in Britain at Britain’s invitation — continued to be articulated in bilateral and Commonwealth forums.

Returnees and Reintegration

Voluntary returnee flows from the United Kingdom continued steadily through Q3 2023. The Returning Residents programme processed applications for duty concessions throughout the quarter, with the standard mix of retirees, early retirees, and working-age lifestyle returnees accessing the programme’s benefits. Housing remained the dominant challenge, with returnees consistently reporting difficulty finding formal sector accommodation that met their needs and expectations at accessible price points in the parishes they wished to settle.

The National Housing Trust’s affordable housing developments continued to attract interest from diaspora buyers, including returnees with NHT contribution histories. The NHT’s External Financing Mortgage Programme provided an avenue for overseas contributors to access NHT financing through commercial bank partners, though awareness and utilisation remained lower than the programme’s design potential would suggest. Civil society advocacy for a dedicated diaspora and returnee housing product, with more accessible documentation requirements and pricing, continued through the quarter.

Deportee arrivals from the United States continued at a pace consistent with the Biden administration’s targeted enforcement framework. PICA processed arrivals within established protocols, with RISE Life Management Services providing the initial reintegration support through which newly arrived deportees could access psychosocial counselling, skills assessment, and employment referral. The reintegration system, while functional, continued to face resource constraints that limited the depth of individual support available.

Labour Mobility: SAWP Season in Full Swing

Canada’s Seasonal Agricultural Worker Programme was in the midst of its 2023 season through Q3, with Jamaican workers on placement at Canadian farms across Ontario, British Columbia, and other provinces. The programme, which has operated since the 1960s as one of the Caribbean’s most valued structured labour mobility pathways, continued to be oversubscribed — with Jamaican worker demand consistently exceeding available placements. Workers on placement through the summer were completing their contractual periods, with returns to Jamaica scheduled to begin through October and November.

In the United Kingdom, discussions about Jamaica’s participation in the Seasonal Worker Visa scheme continued, with Caribbean governments and diaspora advocates pushing for structural reforms that would increase Caribbean representation in agricultural placements. The UK’s post-Brexit labour market had created opportunities for bilateral labour mobility arrangements, but Caribbean governments argued that their workers were systematically disadvantaged relative to Eastern European competitors in the design and operation of the scheme.

Consular Affairs and Community Engagement

Jamaica’s diplomatic missions across North America and Europe maintained standard service delivery through Q3 2023, processing passport applications, issuing travel documents, providing consular assistance, and maintaining community outreach. The Jamaican-American community in Florida — one of the largest concentrations of the diaspora in any single US state — continued to receive active consular outreach from the Miami Consulate, which maintained programming across healthcare, legal information, and cultural community engagement.

The Jamaica High Commission in London maintained its active programme of engagement with the British-Jamaican community, including Windrush support, cultural diplomacy, and bilateral advocacy. The Commission co-ordinated Jamaica’s participation in relevant UK-Caribbean dialogue processes and maintained regular contact with the extensive network of Jamaican community organisations that form the backbone of the British-Jamaican community’s civil society infrastructure.

Outlook for Q4 2023

As Jamaica enters the fourth and final quarter of 2023, the remittance calendar’s most reliable event — the Christmas season surge — provides grounds for optimism about Q4 inflows. December is historically Jamaica’s strongest remittance month, and the pattern has held through all recent years including the pandemic period. If the underlying US and UK economic conditions remain broadly stable, December 2023 should deliver a seasonal uplift that partially offsets the cumulative annual shortfall relative to 2022.

On the economic side, the PIOJ’s Q3 2023 GDP estimates — expected in November or December — will provide the most important forward-looking signal about Jamaica’s economic trajectory as it enters 2024. If Q3 performs in line with Q2’s 2.3 per cent, the full-year figure should come in at approximately 2–2.5 per cent — a solid performance that would support confidence in the economic environment for 2024’s diaspora engagement agenda.

The hurricane season officially ends on 30 November, and Jamaica’s passage through the 2023 season without a direct strike is a significant blessing. The economic and human costs of a major storm — as illustrated most recently by the September 2022 impact of Hurricane Fiona on the eastern Caribbean — serve as a constant reminder of how rapidly the positive work of diaspora engagement can be disrupted by Jamaica’s fundamental climate vulnerability.

This Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora and Returnee Update is researched and published by Jamaica Homes News. Sources consulted include the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Nationwide News Network, RJR News, Caribbean National Weekly, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, and PICA. All figures and developments are accurate as of the publication date, 2 October 2023.