South Sudan Descends Into Civil War, Ukraine’s Maidan Protests Begin, Iran Reaches a Nuclear Interim Deal and Typhoon Haiyan Kills Thousands

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 January 2014 | Reporting Period: 3 October – 2 January 2014

Quarterly Briefing

• Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most powerful tropical cyclones ever recorded, strikes the Philippines on November 8, killing an estimated 6,300 people and displacing four million; the disaster prompts a massive international relief effort.
• South Sudan, the world’s newest country, descends into civil war on December 15 after fighting erupts in the presidential guard between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those backing former vice president Riek Machar.
• Ukraine’s EuroMaidan protests begin on November 21 when President Yanukovych abruptly rejects an association agreement with the European Union; hundreds of thousands gather on Kyiv’s Independence Square through December and into the new year.
• Iran and the P5+1 powers reach the Joint Plan of Action on November 24, an interim nuclear deal under which Iran agrees to freeze enrichment in exchange for limited sanctions relief; negotiations on a comprehensive agreement begin.
• The United States government shuts down from October 1 to October 16 as Congress fails to pass a budget; the shutdown and associated debt ceiling crisis briefly rattles global financial markets.
• Nelson Mandela dies on December 5 at the age of ninety-five; leaders from over ninety countries attend the memorial service in Johannesburg on December 10 in one of the largest gatherings of world figures in history.

Prologue: Crises Multiplying as Mandela Departs

The final quarter of 2013 combined natural catastrophe, institutional dysfunction and the birth of new conflicts with the passing of one of the twentieth century’s most consequential figures. Nelson Mandela’s death on 5 December removed from the world the person most widely associated with the possibility that political violence and racial oppression could give way to negotiated reconciliation. His passing was mourned globally and attended in Johannesburg by nearly one hundred heads of state, including adversaries who had to be carefully managed in the same space. Yet the world they gathered to mourn in did not resemble the one Mandela had hoped to leave. South Sudan, the continent’s newest state, erupted in ethnic fighting within ten days of his memorial. Ukraine’s people were in the streets demanding the same European future that Mandela had hoped Africa would find. And in the Pacific, the climate-related intensity of Typhoon Haiyan demonstrated with lethal clarity the vulnerability of small island communities to extreme weather. Jamaica and the Caribbean watched all three stories with different kinds of attention: the Philippines’ typhoon as a parable about their own exposure; Ukraine as a reminder that geopolitical upheaval in distant places reshapes energy markets; and South Sudan as the latest proof that post-colonial state-building is an unfinished and often violent project.

Typhoon Haiyan and Climate Vulnerability

Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in the Philippines on 8 November with sustained winds estimated at 315 kilometres per hour and gusts approaching 380 — making it one of the strongest landfalling tropical cyclones ever recorded. The storm surge that struck the city of Tacloban was catastrophic; entire coastal communities were swept away. The official death toll has settled around 6,300, though some estimates are higher. Over four million people were displaced. The international relief response was substantial and rapid; the United States military deployed the aircraft carrier George Washington and a large naval task force.

For Caribbean governments and climate negotiators, Haiyan was a vivid illustration of arguments they had been making for years. At the COP19 climate talks in Warsaw, which opened two days after the storm struck, the Philippines negotiator Yeb Saño broke down in tears and announced he would fast until the conference produced meaningful action. Slogans about the existential threat of climate change became concrete: here was a real city, real dead, real displacement. The Caribbean’s vulnerability to intensifying tropical systems means Haiyan resonated not just as distant disaster but as preview.

Ukraine, South Sudan and the World’s New Conflicts

Ukraine’s EuroMaidan movement began on 21 November when President Yanukovych abruptly suspended negotiations on the EU association agreement that had been years in the making. The decision, widely attributed to Russian pressure and financial inducements, triggered protests in Kyiv that grew through December into the hundreds of thousands. The protesters’ demand was simple: closer integration with Europe rather than the Russian economic space. Yanukovych’s government attempted to suppress the protests with riot police but backed down in late November after the images of beatings generated international outcry. As 2014 begins, the standoff continues: the square is still occupied, the government is still in place, and neither side has blinked.

South Sudan’s descent into civil war on 15 December was swift and brutal. Fighting between soldiers loyal to President Salva Kiir and those loyal to his dismissed vice president Riek Machar began in Juba and spread rapidly to Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity states. Machar, who denied involvement in an alleged coup attempt, fled the capital; fighting split largely along ethnic lines between Dinka (Kiir’s group) and Nuer (Machar’s). Thousands were killed in the first weeks; UN peacekeeping bases were overwhelmed with civilians seeking protection. Peace talks opened in Addis Ababa on 7 January. South Sudan, which became independent in 2011 with extraordinary international goodwill, had taken barely two years to begin consuming itself.

Iran, the US Shutdown and Caribbean Implications

The interim nuclear deal with Iran reached in Geneva on 24 November was the most significant diplomatic development in the Middle East in years. Iran agreed to cap its uranium enrichment at 5 per cent, dilute its existing stockpile of 20 per cent enriched uranium, and halt construction at the Arak heavy water reactor, in exchange for limited sanctions relief worth approximately $7 billion over six months. The deal, brokered by Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif with European and Russian participation, opened a six-month window for comprehensive negotiations. Oil markets responded modestly; the prospect of Iranian oil returning to international markets in larger quantities is a medium-term factor that bears watching for PETROCARIBE’s arithmetic.

The United States government’s partial shutdown from 1–16 October — the result of a Republican-controlled House of Representatives refusing to pass a continuing resolution unless the Affordable Care Act was defunded — was the first such shutdown since 1996. It forced 800,000 federal workers onto unpaid leave, closed national parks and disrupted government services. More seriously, the shutdown coincided with negotiations over the debt ceiling; a failure to raise the ceiling would have triggered a US debt default with global financial consequences. A last-minute deal was reached hours before the deadline. For Caribbean economies deeply tied to the US through tourism, trade and remittances, the episode was a reminder of how American political dysfunction translates into uncertainty in source markets.

Looking Ahead

Ukraine’s political crisis is unresolved as 2014 begins; whether Yanukovych can survive the pressure from the streets — and from Moscow — without further violent escalation is the first major geopolitical question of the new year. South Sudan’s peace talks have barely begun; the fighting continues. The Iran nuclear process has six months to produce a comprehensive agreement; failure would reignite the risk of military confrontation. And the Caribbean enters 2014 with PETROCARIBE functioning but Venezuela’s Maduro government facing an economy under serious strain. The quarter just ending contained more than its share of historic events; the quarter beginning today will test whether the world’s institutions can manage the crises they have inherited.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.

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