The Arab Spring Topples Ben Ali and Mubarak, Libya Goes to War, Japan Is Devastated by Earthquake and Tsunami and Oil Spikes Past $115

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 April 2011 | Reporting Period: 3 January – 2 April 2011

Quarterly Briefing

• Tunisia’s President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali flees to Saudi Arabia on January 14 after weeks of protests triggered by the self-immolation of fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi in December; the first Arab Spring revolution is complete.
• Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak resigns on February 11 after eighteen days of mass protests in Tahrir Square; the military’s Supreme Council takes power and promises free elections; the Arab world’s most populous country enters an uncertain transition.
• Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi attempts to crush an uprising with lethal force; after rebel forces seize Benghazi and other cities, the UN Security Council passes Resolution 1973 on March 17 authorising a no-fly zone; French and British airstrikes begin March 19, followed by NATO taking command.
• A magnitude 9.0 earthquake strikes northeast Japan on March 11, triggering a tsunami that kills an estimated 15,889 people and inundates the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, causing three reactor meltdowns; it is the most expensive natural disaster in human history.
• Bahrain’s government, facing Shia-majority protests at the Pearl Roundabout, requests military assistance from the Gulf Cooperation Council; Saudi Arabia and UAE forces enter Bahrain on March 14 and the government declares martial law, crushing the protests.
• Global oil prices spike above $115 per barrel as Libya’s oil output falls sharply; the Libyan supply disruption removes roughly 1.6 million barrels per day from world markets and directly increases Caribbean fuel import bills.

Prologue: The Most Consequential Quarter in a Generation

The first quarter of 2011 may be the most consequential three-month period in international affairs since the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991. Two entrenched Arab autocrats were removed by their own people within weeks of each other. A third Arab country descended into civil war, drawing Western military power into a conflict whose outcome was entirely uncertain. A nuclear-armed Pacific democracy suffered the largest natural disaster ever to strike an industrialised nation. And the price of oil — the commodity that underpins Caribbean economic stability through PETROCARIBE — spiked past $115 per barrel. For Jamaica and the Caribbean, these were not events observed from a comfortable distance; they translated directly into higher fuel costs, recalibrated investment climates and the growing sense that the international order which had provided the background stability for Caribbean economic development was entering a period of fundamental revision.

Tunisia and Egypt: The Arab Spring’s Opening Acts

Ben Ali’s departure on 14 January, after 23 years in power, was the proximate result of weeks of protests across Tunisia’s cities, themselves ignited by the December self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-year-old street vendor whose produce cart had been confiscated by municipal authorities. The protests spread from Sidi Bouzid to Tunis, where tear gas and bullets failed to disperse them; the military declined to fire on civilians; and Ben Ali fled. The speed and decisiveness of the Tunisian revolution electrified Arab public opinion across the region.

Egypt’s Tahrir Square protests began on 25 January, initially small but growing explosively after police used water cannon and rubber bullets. By 28 January — the “Friday of Anger” — hundreds of thousands had gathered in Cairo, Alexandria and other cities. Mubarak dismissed his cabinet and appointed his intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice president, but neither move satisfied the crowds. On 11 February, Suleiman appeared on television to announce that Mubarak had transferred authority to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Eighteen days of protest had ended a thirty-year presidency. The Obama administration, which had signalled support for Mubarak’s continuation before reluctantly calling for a managed transition, was left recalibrating its relationships across the region.

Libya’s War and Oil’s Caribbean Impact

Libya’s uprising began in Benghazi on 15–17 February. Unlike his Tunisian and Egyptian counterparts, Gaddafi chose maximum force: mercenaries, artillery and eventually aircraft were deployed against civilian populations. Rebel forces seized Benghazi and several coastal cities; Gaddafi’s forces launched a counter-offensive that by mid-March had reached the outskirts of Benghazi. The UN Security Council’s Resolution 1973, passed on 17 March with abstentions from Russia, China, Germany, India and Brazil, authorised “all necessary measures” to protect civilians. French airstrikes began on 19 March, joined within hours by American and British cruise missiles and aircraft. NATO took command of the operation on 31 March.

Libya produces approximately 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, most of it light sweet crude that European refineries are designed to process. The uprising and civil war essentially halted Libyan production, removing that supply from global markets and pushing Brent crude above $115 per barrel by early April. For Jamaica, which imports virtually all of its oil, and for the broader Caribbean whose PETROCARIBE deliveries from Venezuela use the oil price as the basis for financing calculations, the Libyan supply shock was a direct fiscal challenge. PETROCARIBE’s concessional terms helped, but at $115 per barrel the absolute cost of oil imports was at levels that strained every Caribbean government’s budget.

Japan’s Triple Catastrophe

The Tohoku earthquake of 11 March — the strongest ever recorded in Japan, at magnitude 9.0 — triggered a tsunami with waves reaching up to 40 metres that overwhelmed coastal defences along a 500-kilometre stretch of northeast Japan. The immediate death toll settled at around 15,889, with over 2,500 missing. More than 340,000 people were displaced. The tsunami’s inundation of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, operated by Tokyo Electric Power, caused hydrogen explosions and meltdowns in three reactors; the crisis was the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl. Japan’s government established a 20-kilometre evacuation zone; 154,000 people were displaced from their homes permanently.

Japan’s economic consequences rippled globally. Toyota, Honda, Sony and other major manufacturers suspended or reduced production as supply chains were disrupted. Japan’s government announced reconstruction spending exceeding ¥20 trillion (£150 billion). The nuclear crisis prompted Germany’s government to order the temporary shutdown of seven old nuclear plants and announce a longer-term phase-out review. For Caribbean energy planning — which had included nuclear as a potential medium-term option in discussions at CARICOM level — the Fukushima accident substantially chilled the conversation.

Looking Ahead

NATO’s Libyan operation is less than two weeks old as this edition publishes; its duration and outcome are entirely unknown. Syria, where protests have been met with gunfire in Daraa and other cities since late March, is showing signs of following the Arab Spring pattern — but with a government that appears even less willing to negotiate than those that fell in Tunis and Cairo. Egypt’s transition is under military management; whether it produces democracy or a new form of authoritarianism will be determined over months. Japan’s reconstruction has barely begun; its impact on global supply chains and energy markets will play out through the year. And oil prices above $100 per barrel will continue to constrain Caribbean fiscal space for as long as the Libyan supply disruption persists. The world has changed profoundly in the past three months; it has not yet finished changing.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.

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