Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora & Returnee Update — January to March 2016

Published: 2 April 2016 | Jamaica Homes News

Key Takeaways

• Jamaica elects a new government: Holness returns as PM: Jamaica’s general election of 25 February 2016 returned the Jamaica Labour Party to power under Andrew Holness, ending four-and-a-half years of PNP government under Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller. The result — 32 seats for the JLP against 31 for the PNP on a turnout of approximately 48 per cent — was among the closest in the island’s parliamentary history and produced a period of careful coalition management by a government whose single-seat majority required every MP’s presence for any vote. For the diaspora, the transition raised the usual questions of policy continuity: PICA’s returnee facilitation service, the Biennial conference structure, and the investment promotion framework all required reassurance of continuation under the new government.
• Obama makes history: first US presidential visit to Cuba in 88 years: President Obama’s visit to Cuba on 20–22 March 2016 — the first by a sitting US president since Calvin Coolidge in 1928 — was a landmark in the normalisation of US–Cuba relations announced in December 2014 and had significant resonance for the broader Caribbean diaspora community. The visit signalled a fundamental shift in the US’s posture toward the Caribbean that has implications for Jamaica and the region’s relationship with both the United States and Cuba. Cuban-American and other Caribbean diaspora communities watched closely as decades of Cold War-era policy continued to unravel.
• Brexit referendum: campaign reaches peak intensity: With the UK’s EU membership referendum now just 83 days away as of this publication, the campaign between the official Remain and Leave campaigns was entering its final and most intense phase. British-Jamaican communities were overwhelmingly oriented toward Remain, recognising both the economic risks of the UK’s departure from the single market and the identity dimensions of a campaign in which immigration — and the identity of those who had come to Britain — had been placed at the centre by the Leave argument. Community advocacy organisations were encouraging eligible voters to register and to make their voices heard in what was positioned as the most consequential vote in a generation for the UK’s future.
• Trump dominates Republican primaries: diaspora communities alarmed: Donald Trump’s sweep through the early Republican primary states — winning New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and the majority of Super Tuesday contests by the end of February — was making his nomination as the Republican presidential candidate appear increasingly likely. For Jamaican-American community organisations, Trump’s primary success elevated the stakes of the November general election: his immigration policy proposals were the most restrictionist of any major-party candidate in recent history, and the contrast with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton’s positions was stark and consequential.
• 7th Biennial preparation: June 2016 gathering takes shape: Preparations for the 7th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference, scheduled for June 2016 in Kingston and Montego Bay, were advancing strongly through Q1 2016. MFAFT’s diaspora engagement office was finalising working group structures, community invitations, and the conference’s thematic framework. The Biennial’s preparation had been complicated by the February general election and the brief transition period, but the incoming Holness government had confirmed its commitment to hosting the 7th Biennial and to the diaspora conference structure as a policy priority.
• Remittances: 2015 closes strongly, 2016 begins well: Bank of Jamaica data confirmed that 2015 had closed as a positive remittance year, with total annual flows of approximately US$2.3 billion representing modest growth over 2014. Q1 2016 early data was tracking positive year-on-year, supported by the US dollar’s strength and Jamaican-American employment stability. The IMF programme’s continuing management of Jamaica’s macro-economic environment was providing the stable domestic framework within which remittance-receiving households could plan, save, and invest.

Introduction: A Quarter of Transitions

The first quarter of 2016 was defined by transitions: Jamaica’s democratic change of government, Obama’s historic Caribbean diplomacy, and the accelerating primary season in the United States that was making the November general election’s immigration stakes clearer by the week. In the United Kingdom, the Brexit referendum campaign was consuming British political life and raising questions for British-Jamaican communities that went to the heart of identity, belonging, and Britain’s relationship with its post-colonial history. This update draws on Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Bank of Jamaica, PIOJ, MFAFT, and Caribbean diaspora media through 31 March 2016.

Jamaica’s General Election

Andrew Holness’s single-seat majority produced immediate questions about governmental stability, but the early weeks of the new administration demonstrated a purposefulness that reassured both domestic and diaspora observers. The Cabinet appointments — including experienced figures from the JLP’s previous government — signalled a administration that was ready to govern and determined to move quickly on its economic agenda. For diaspora community members who had been following the campaign, the result was received positively in many quarters as a democratic alternation that Jamaica’s political culture had managed peacefully and credibly.

The question of policy continuity in the returnee and diaspora space was answered quickly. PICA confirmed the continuation of its returning residents facilitation service under the new government, and the Holness administration’s confirmation of the 7th Biennial provided the clearest possible signal that the diaspora engagement architecture built over the conference series’ twelve years would be maintained and advanced. The new government’s economic programme — with its emphasis on housing, infrastructure, and growth — was read by diaspora investors as a positive signal for the property and construction sectors that are among the most important channels of diaspora capital into Jamaica.

Obama in Cuba: Caribbean Diplomacy Transformed

President Obama’s three-day visit to Cuba — including a meeting with President Raúl Castro, a speech to the Cuban people broadcast live on state television, a baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cuban national team, and a wreath-laying at the José Martí monument — was the most symbolically charged act of his presidency’s final year and a defining moment in the fifty-year history of US–Cuba relations. For the broader Caribbean diaspora community, the visit confirmed that the Obama administration’s December 2014 normalisation announcement was not a rhetorical gesture but a genuine strategic realignment of US Caribbean policy. Jamaica’s relationship with Cuba — historically warm and practically significant — was a positive backdrop to the region’s welcome of the new US posture.

Outlook for Q2 2016

The second quarter of 2016 brings the 7th Biennial in June, the UK’s Brexit referendum on 23 June, the Republican National Convention in July (just beyond the quarter’s end), and a continuing US primary season that will define the November election’s shape. Jamaica’s new government will complete its first hundred days and present its first budget. For the diaspora, Q2 2016 may be the most consequential quarter of recent years. We report next from 2 July 2016.

This Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora and Returnee Update is researched and published by Jamaica Homes News. Sources include Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Bank of Jamaica, PIOJ, MFAFT, and PICA. All figures and developments are accurate as of the publication date, 2 April 2016.

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