Caribbean Property & Investment Review

Publication Date: 3 May 2019  |  Coverage Period: 3 April – 2 May 2019

Morning Briefing

• Jamaica Q1 2019 visitor arrivals up 6.4% year-on-year, with stopover tourists surpassing 1.1 million for the quarter — a record first quarter
• Dominican Republic maintains its position as the Caribbean’s busiest destination, welcoming over 2.9 million visitors in Q1 2019 amid strong European and North American demand
• Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley marks one year in office with IMF programme delivering early fiscal gains and renewed investor confidence in the island
• Guyana’s Liza Phase 1 development remains on track, with ExxonMobil and partners confirming oil production expected before the end of 2019 — anticipation building across the region
• Easter week hotel occupancies across Jamaica, Barbados, and the Turks and Caicos Islands reached multi-year highs, with several resorts reporting sold-out nights through the long weekend
• Caribbean hotel construction pipeline remains robust, with new resort projects announced in Grenada, Saint Lucia, and Anguilla during April, reflecting sustained institutional confidence in the region

Jamaica’s Property Market Accelerates Into Spring

Jamaica’s property sector entered April 2019 with considerable momentum, buoyed by a record first quarter for tourism arrivals and sustained demand for both residential and commercial real estate across the island. Kingston’s New Kingston business district continued to attract investment from regional and international firms, while the resort corridors of Montego Bay and Negril reported heightened interest from buyers seeking vacation rental properties ahead of the high-demand summer season.

The National Housing Trust reported a steady pipeline of new applications in April, reflecting ongoing demand from middle-income Jamaican households seeking homeownership. NHT-backed schemes in communities outside Kingston — particularly in Saint Catherine and Saint James — continued to see strong uptake, with affordable townhouse developments in Spanish Town and Portmore among the most active segments of the market. The Trust’s low-interest mortgage products remained a critical bridge for first-time buyers navigating a property market where prices have risen steadily over the past three years.

The luxury segment of the Jamaican market also showed vitality during the coverage period. Private villa sales on the north coast, particularly in the Round Hill and Tryall Club corridors west of Montego Bay, attracted enquiries from North American and European buyers drawn by Jamaica’s improving security narrative and the island’s globally recognised brand. Real estate agents active in this corridor reported that well-priced listings were moving faster than at any point in recent years, with some vendors receiving multiple offers within weeks of going to market. For investors, short-term rental yields in Jamaica’s tourist zones remained attractive, with well-managed villa properties achieving occupancy rates above 70% for the April period.

Barbados: One Year of Reform, Growing Investor Returns

As Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley’s Barbados Labour Party government marked its first anniversary in office, the island’s economic picture had begun to shift meaningfully from the fiscal stress that characterised much of the mid-2010s. The IMF programme signed in October 2018 had set Barbados on a path of fiscal consolidation, and by April 2019 early indicators suggested the programme was delivering. The government reported primary surpluses ahead of initial projections, external reserves had stabilised, and the Barbados dollar’s peg to the US dollar remained intact — a source of considerable reassurance to investors.

For the property market, the reforms translated into a slow but perceptible improvement in sentiment. International buyers who had been cautious during Barbados’s period of fiscal difficulty began to re-engage with the market through the first quarter of 2019, drawn by the island’s enduring appeal — world-class beaches, a sophisticated service environment, and a stable legal system underpinned by English common law. Luxury property on the Platinum Coast retained its value, and agents reported a modest increase in viewings and enquiries compared to the same period in 2018. Rental yields in Barbados remained competitive among eastern Caribbean destinations, and the government’s moves to streamline business registration and reduce bureaucratic friction had been noted positively by international developers with projects in the pipeline.

Domestically, Barbados’s housing market faced ongoing affordability pressures for lower and middle-income households. The government’s social housing programme was being reviewed as part of wider public expenditure rationalisation, and policy observers noted that housing delivery would need to balance fiscal constraint with the real demand for affordable units, particularly for younger Barbadians priced out of the private market.

Guyana’s Oil Moment Draws Closer — Regional Implications Mount

The steady march toward first oil in Guyana continued to dominate regional economic commentary during April 2019, with ExxonMobil and its Stabroek Block partners Hess Corporation and CNOOC confirming that the Liza Phase 1 development remained on schedule for first production before the end of the year. Guyana’s government had been working throughout the year to build domestic capacity to receive and manage the expected revenue inflows, with legislation governing the new Natural Resource Fund advancing through Parliament — a critical piece of the architecture needed to ensure oil wealth was managed for long-term national benefit.

For the wider Caribbean, Guyana’s oil era represented a potential rebalancing of economic weight within the region. A country that had long depended on sugar, rice, and gold for export earnings was on the verge of becoming a significant oil producer, with recoverable resources at the Stabroek Block estimated at more than five billion barrels — one of the most significant offshore discoveries in the world in recent decades. Regional economists noted that Guyana’s growing fiscal position would eventually translate into infrastructure investment, increased regional trade, and heightened demand for professional services, all of which created opportunities for neighbouring Caribbean economies.

Within Guyana itself, the anticipation of oil revenues was already influencing property markets in Georgetown and surrounds. Demand for commercial real estate — particularly office space capable of housing multinational oil and gas services firms — had increased materially over the past two years. Residential property in Georgetown’s better neighbourhoods had seen price appreciation driven partly by the arrival of expatriate oil workers and associated service sector professionals. Local developers were responding with new condominium and mixed-use projects, though the pace of construction remained constrained by limitations in the local supply chain for building materials and skilled labour.

Eastern Caribbean Hotel Pipeline: Grenada, Saint Lucia, and Anguilla Lead New Development

The eastern Caribbean’s hotel development pipeline remained one of the region’s most active investment stories through April 2019, with Grenada, Saint Lucia, and Anguilla each hosting significant new projects at various stages of planning and construction. Grenada’s Citizenship by Investment programme continued to serve as a meaningful catalyst for luxury resort development, with several CBI-linked projects in the south of the island combining branded residences with hotel inventory. The CBI route allowed developers to access a pool of qualified investors willing to commit capital at the pre-construction stage, providing a funding mechanism that reduced reliance on local bank finance and enabled projects that might otherwise struggle to reach ground-breaking.

Saint Lucia’s north coast, anchored by the established resort enclave around Rodney Bay and Cap Estate, saw continued interest from international hotel brands seeking to expand their Caribbean footprints. The island’s dual-airport connectivity — direct services from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada — made it attractive for both leisure visitors and the brand of high-end property buyer who valued accessibility. Discussions around one planned luxury project in the Cap Estate area had advanced to the point where site preparation was expected to begin in the second half of 2019.

Anguilla, long positioned as the ultra-luxury end of the Caribbean spectrum, continued to attract high-net-worth interest despite its limited land mass and relatively modest infrastructure. The island’s careful approach to development — restricting density and maintaining quality thresholds — had helped sustain premium pricing for both hotel rooms and private real estate. Several private villa estates on the island’s northern shoreline were under negotiation during April, with buyers drawn by Anguilla’s tranquillity, its exceptional beaches, and the confidence that comes with a market that has consistently appreciated over time.

Caribbean Leaders This Month

Jamaica led the region’s tourism performance narrative with its strongest-ever first quarter, cementing its position as the Caribbean’s most visited English-speaking island. The broad-based nature of the growth — covering both stopover visitors and cruise passengers — reflected the island’s diversified source market strategy.

Dominican Republic maintained its commanding lead as the Caribbean’s highest-volume destination, with Q1 2019 arrivals reinforcing the country’s position as the region’s tourism engine. The government’s infrastructure investment — expanded airport capacity, new road networks — continued to pay dividends.

Barbados delivered a standout political and economic milestone as PM Mottley’s reform programme began to show tangible results. Investor sentiment toward Barbados improved measurably through April, with the luxury property market responding positively to fiscal stabilisation.

Guyana commanded regional attention throughout April as the countdown to first oil gathered pace. Georgetown’s commercial and residential property markets continued to price in the expected economic transformation, with demand from the energy sector supporting values at levels not seen previously in the country’s history.

Grenada stood out among the smaller eastern Caribbean markets for the quality and pace of its hotel development pipeline. The synergy between the CBI programme and resort investment created a funding model that other jurisdictions were watching with interest.

Saint Lucia made steady progress on its hotel development agenda, with north coast projects advancing toward construction commencement. The island’s connectivity improvements underscored its competitive position among mid-market Caribbean resort destinations.

Anguilla reinforced its ultra-luxury credentials with continued villa sales activity and high interest from high-net-worth buyers seeking a discreet, premium Caribbean address. Villa pricing remained among the highest per square foot in the English-speaking Caribbean.

Overall April performer: Jamaica, for delivering a record first quarter across multiple tourism metrics while simultaneously sustaining strong residential property demand and NHT programme activity.

Looking Ahead

The Atlantic hurricane season opens on 1 June, and the Caribbean property and tourism sectors will be watching closely as early season forecasts are published over coming weeks. Preparedness investment — in both physical infrastructure and insurance coverage — remains a key risk management priority for resort operators and property owners alike, particularly following the active 2017 and 2018 seasons that caused significant losses across the region.

For investors with a medium to long-term horizon, the Caribbean’s structural fundamentals remain compelling. Record tourism arrivals, improving fiscal positions in several key markets, and the approaching Guyana oil era all contribute to a regional investment case that is arguably stronger than at any point in the past decade. The pipeline of hotel and resort development projects across Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Saint Lucia, and Grenada reflects institutional confidence that demand will continue to grow.

The summer months will test Caribbean tourism’s resilience as the region enters the shoulder season and competes for holidaymakers facing a wide range of destination choices. Early forward booking data for July and August suggests solid demand from the North American market, while European bookings — particularly from the United Kingdom — remain healthy. Property professionals across the region will be monitoring whether the strong Q1 momentum translates into an equally robust summer trading period.

The Caribbean Property & Investment Review is published monthly. All market data and commentary reflect conditions during the stated coverage period. This publication does not constitute investment advice.

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