Caribbean Property & Investment Review — Edition 78: February 2020

Publication Date: 3 February 2020  |  Coverage Period: 3 January – 2 February 2020

Morning Briefing

• Guyana’s Liza Phase 1 oil production continues to ramp up following the historic December 20 first oil milestone, with ExxonMobil reporting steady progress toward plateau output of 120,000 barrels per day — transforming the country’s economic outlook and igniting Caribbean-wide investment interest.
• Caribbean Tourism Organisation confirms 2019 was the best year on record for the region, with stayover arrivals surpassing 31 million — a figure that is reshaping hotel investment pipelines and short-term rental valuations from Barbados to the Bahamas.
• Jamaica’s National Housing Trust reports strong loan disbursement figures for January, with first-time buyer applications tracking above the same period last year as the government’s housing programme gains momentum ahead of the general election cycle.
• Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival fever is building toward the February 24–25 climax, with hotel occupancy in Port of Spain already at premium levels and short-term rental operators reporting the strongest advance bookings in five years.
• Barbados continues to consolidate its IMF-assisted economic recovery, with Prime Minister Mottley’s administration reporting improved fiscal metrics and renewed investor confidence attracting fresh foreign direct investment inquiries into the Platinum Coast corridor.
• Dominican Republic’s tourism sector enters 2020 in robust health, with resort occupancy rates recovering strongly and major hotel groups proceeding with expansion projects along the Punta Cana and Cap Cana coastlines.

Guyana’s Oil Era Arrives: Regional Property and Investment Implications

The first weeks of 2020 have been dominated by one story above all others in Caribbean business circles: the cementing of Guyana’s status as a genuine oil-producing nation. With ExxonMobil’s Liza Phase 1 project having achieved first oil on December 20, 2019, the new year opened with production ramping steadily and international attention trained firmly on Georgetown. For Caribbean property and investment professionals, the implications are profound and far-reaching.

Georgetown’s real estate market has already begun to reflect the transformed economic environment. Commercial property demand in the capital is running at levels not seen before, with office space particularly sought after as oil service companies, legal firms, logistics operators, and financial institutions establish or expand their Guyana presence. Rental rates for prime commercial space have increased sharply over the past six months, and new development proposals are advancing through planning approval processes at pace.

Residential property, particularly in the upper-middle and luxury segments that cater to the expatriate professional community, is equally buoyant. ExxonMobil, Hess Corporation, and CNOOC have brought substantial numbers of specialist staff to Guyana, and the corporate accommodation market is struggling to keep pace. Developers with sites in the better residential districts of Georgetown are moving quickly, and land prices in areas such as Bel Air and Prashad Nagar have responded accordingly.

For the broader Caribbean, the Guyana oil story represents a new centre of economic gravity. Regional banks, particularly those with operations in Guyana, are reporting increased business volumes. Trinidad and Tobago, with its deep petrochemical expertise and established energy services sector, is positioning actively to capture a share of the supply chain. Caribbean investors are watching the evolution of Guyana’s sovereign wealth fund framework with considerable interest, understanding that the management of oil revenues will shape the country’s investment climate for decades.

2019 Tourism: A Record Year Reviewed — And What It Means for Property

The final Caribbean Tourism Organisation statistics for 2019 confirm what many in the industry suspected during the year: it was an exceptional performance by any historical measure. With stayover arrivals across the region exceeding 31 million for the first time, 2019 set a benchmark that will frame investment decisions for the years ahead. The record performance was broadly distributed across the region, with Jamaica, Barbados, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas all posting strong numbers.

For property investors, the 2019 tourism record carries a clear message: Caribbean hospitality assets continue to deliver. Hotel investment returns across the region tracked well for the year, with average daily rates rising in most major destinations and occupancy holding firm across the traditional peak season. The pipeline of new hotel projects — from all-inclusive expansions in Jamaica’s north coast to boutique developments in Grenada and St Lucia — reflects developer confidence that 2019 is not an aberration but a new baseline.

The short-term rental sector, now a significant component of Caribbean accommodation supply, also benefited from the record tourism year. Airbnb and competing platforms reported strong performance across the region, with Caribbean listings achieving some of the highest seasonal occupancy rates globally. For condominium investors and villa owners, 2019 provided compelling evidence that the short-term rental model continues to generate attractive yields in well-located Caribbean destinations.

Looking across individual markets, Jamaica stands out for the consistency and breadth of its tourism growth. Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, and Negril all delivered strong visitor numbers, and the continued expansion of Sandals and other major resort operators signals sustained confidence in the market’s fundamentals. The government’s housing programme, meanwhile, is creating a growing middle-class base that supports residential property demand beyond the traditional resort corridors.

Trinidad Carnival Season: The Property and Investment Angle

With Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival scheduled for February 24–25, the twin-island republic enters one of its most commercially intense periods of the year. Carnival is not merely a cultural event but a significant economic engine, drawing visitors from across the Caribbean diaspora, North America, Europe, and increasingly Asia, and generating substantial revenue across accommodation, entertainment, retail, and food service.

For property investors with assets in Port of Spain and the broader Trinidad market, Carnival represents the peak of the short-term rental calendar. Properties in the capital and in areas with good access to the Savannah and the major Carnival routes are commanding premium rates for the period immediately surrounding the festival, with many owners achieving in a single Carnival week what might otherwise take a month or more. The professionalisation of Trinidad’s short-term rental market has been marked over the past two years, with more owners engaging property management companies to optimise their returns during the festival period.

Beyond the immediate Carnival windfall, Trinidad’s property market is navigating a period of careful consolidation. The energy sector, which remains the foundation of the economy, has seen some stabilisation in natural gas production projections, and the government’s ongoing Atlantic LNG and Point Lisas industrial estate management provides a degree of macroeconomic ballast. Commercial property in Port of Spain remains selectively active, with refurbishment and repositioning of older office stock attracting interest from companies seeking to right-size their accommodation post-2018 energy sector adjustments.

Regional Housing Markets: 2020 Opens on Firm Ground

Across the Caribbean, residential property markets enter 2020 with a degree of optimism that reflects the broader economic confidence of the moment. Interest rates remain supportive — the US Federal Reserve’s three rate cuts through 2019, which brought the federal funds rate to 1.75%, have filtered through to Caribbean mortgage markets, reducing borrowing costs and supporting affordability for both local buyers and international investors.

Jamaica’s residential market is performing steadily. The National Housing Trust is maintaining its lending volumes, and the government’s New Social Housing Programme continues to create housing opportunities for lower-income Jamaicans. In the upper segments of the market, the combination of growing diaspora investment, Airbnb-driven villa demand, and continued interest from North American and British buyers is supporting values in the resort communities of Montego Bay and Ocho Rios.

Barbados continues its careful economic recovery under Prime Minister Mottley’s Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) programme. The IMF-backed reform process has restored international creditor confidence, and the real estate market is beginning to see renewed inquiry from international buyers who had taken a cautious stance during the debt restructuring period. The Platinum Coast — St James and St Peter parishes — remains the most internationally traded segment, and agent reports from January suggest inquiry levels are up compared to the same period in 2019.

The Dominican Republic’s residential and resort property market enters 2020 in markedly better shape than might have been feared following the hotel safety concerns of mid-2019. The government’s comprehensive response to those events — enhanced inspection regimes, new safety certification requirements, and a sustained international communications effort — has largely restored confidence. Major international hotel brands continue to advance expansion projects in Punta Cana and the emerging Cap Cana development zone, and residential property linked to these resort ecosystems is benefiting accordingly.

Caribbean Leaders This Month

Guyana (Georgetown Commercial): The most dynamic commercial property market in the Caribbean right now, with oil-sector demand driving office and logistics property to new heights. Rental rate growth is running ahead of any comparable Caribbean market.

Jamaica (North Coast Resorts): Montego Bay and Ocho Rios resort property markets delivered strong full-year 2019 performance, and January 2020 inquiry levels suggest the momentum carries forward. Sandals’ continuing investment programme anchors confidence.

Barbados (Platinum Coast): International buyer interest is recovering meaningfully following the resolution of the BERT debt restructuring process, with St James and St Peter attracting renewed North American and British inquiry in January.

Trinidad (Port of Spain Carnival Rentals): Short-term rental yields for the Carnival period are reaching new highs, with premium properties fully booked for the February 24–25 weekend and surrounding days at rates that comfortably exceed annual averages.

Dominican Republic (Punta Cana/Cap Cana): Resort property has recovered its momentum, with major hotel brand expansion projects advancing and residential values supported by the strong 2019 tourism performance and continued airlift growth.

St Lucia (Cap Estate and Rodney Bay): Inquiry for luxury villa and condominium product is running at healthy levels, supported by the island’s successful 2019 tourism season and its positioning as a premium destination for European and North American buyers.

Grenada (Citizenship by Investment): Grenada’s CBI programme continues to generate steady investment flows into approved real estate projects, with the country’s unique US E-2 Treaty access remaining a powerful differentiator for American applicants.

Overall Regional Performer — February 2020: Guyana. The transformation of Guyana from an underinvested frontier market to a genuine oil economy in the span of a single decade is the most significant structural shift in Caribbean economic geography since the post-war tourism boom. Its property and investment implications will compound for years to come.

Looking Ahead

The Caribbean investment community enters the spring season with considerable momentum. The combination of Guyana’s oil production ramp-up, the confirmed record 2019 tourism year, and a supportive global interest rate environment creates a notably positive backdrop for regional property and investment decisions in the months ahead. Development pipelines across the region — from affordable housing projects in Jamaica to luxury resort expansions in Barbados and the Dominican Republic — reflect the confidence of capital seeking Caribbean exposure.

For the property professional community, the near-term calendar is shaped by several significant events. Trinidad’s Carnival will conclude by the end of February, with post-festival analysis of accommodation revenues providing data points for the short-term rental investment case. The regional spring tourism season, traditionally strong from February through April as North American and European visitors seek Caribbean warmth, will test whether the exceptional 2019 momentum carries into the new decade.

Investors with longer time horizons will be tracking the evolution of Guyana’s institutional and regulatory framework for oil revenue management — the sovereign wealth fund design, the local content requirements for energy sector procurement, and the government’s infrastructure investment plans all have direct implications for real estate and broader business investment in Georgetown and across the country. The Caribbean’s newest economic story is also its most consequential, and the region’s property professionals would do well to understand it thoroughly.

The Caribbean Property & Investment Review is published monthly. Edition 78 covers the period 3 January – 2 February 2020. All market data represents conditions during the coverage period. This publication does not constitute investment advice.

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