Caribbean Property & Investment Review — Edition 71: Caribbean Property Resilience, Remote Work Revolution, Hurricane Season Threat

Publication Date: 3 September 2020  |  Coverage Period: 3 August – 2 September 2020

Morning Briefing

• The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season continues at a record-setting pace — as of September 1, the season had already produced 14 named storms, exhausting the standard list of names faster than any season on record, and the peak activity period of August–October is only now fully underway.
• The Barbados Welcome Stamp programme has processed thousands of applications in its first six weeks, with significant demand from technology sector professionals in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, and reports of Welcome Stamp holders beginning to generate genuine property market interest.
• Jamaica’s Resilient Corridors are recording incremental improvements in arrivals month-on-month, with August showing higher visitor numbers than July as airline schedules gradually rebuild and travel confidence grows among health-protocol-comfortable travellers.
• Caribbean luxury property market activity is showing a clear ‘great reshuffling’ dynamic, with high-net-worth buyers from North American and European cities conducting serious remote and in-person due diligence on Caribbean relocation options at rates substantially above pre-pandemic levels.
• Remittances to Caribbean countries — a critical income source for household property affordability — have held up better than feared, with the resilience of diaspora employment in essential sectors of North American economies providing a meaningful, if partial, income floor for recipient households.
• Hurricane Laura struck Louisiana and the US Gulf Coast on August 27 as a powerful Category 4 storm, the strongest to hit the US in decades, though the Caribbean basin has so far been spared a direct major hurricane landfall in the 2020 season.

The Great Reshuffling: Wealthy Buyers Eye Caribbean Relocation

One of the most significant and unexpected developments in the Caribbean property market during the pandemic has been the surge in serious interest from high-net-worth individuals and families who are reconsidering where they want to live. This ‘great reshuffling’ — a term being used by real estate professionals across the region to describe the pandemic-driven reassessment of primary and secondary residence choices — is generating inquiry volumes and quality at levels that Caribbean property agents describe as exceptional even by the standards of pre-pandemic peak seasons.

The profile of the interested buyer has shifted. The traditional Caribbean second-home buyer was typically someone in their 50s or 60s, either recently retired or approaching retirement, seeking a warm-weather bolthole primarily for personal use with rental income as a secondary benefit. Today’s enquirer is more likely to be in their 35–50s, working full-time in technology, finance, or professional services, with an income that supports comfortable Caribbean living, and actively seeking a permanent or co-primary relocation rather than a holiday home. The pandemic has demonstrated that these individuals can work effectively from anywhere with reliable internet, and many of them have concluded that the pandemic-era quality of life in dense North American and European cities compared unfavourably with what the Caribbean can offer.

Barbados, benefiting directly from the Welcome Stamp’s global media reach, is seeing the most intense version of this dynamic. Real estate agents on the Platinum Coast report viewing schedules that are booked weeks in advance for international buyers — some arriving as Welcome Stamp holders already in residence, others flying in specifically for property reconnaissance. The west coast luxury market — which encompasses properties from the US$800,000 to US$10 million-plus range — is seeing the most active inquiry, though the broader Barbados market from the US$350,000 entry-level villa tier is also benefiting.

Dominican Republic: Ahead of the Curve

The Dominican Republic’s decision to open its borders to international visitors on June 1 — earlier than any other significant Caribbean destination — is paying dividends in terms of market position. The DR’s resort hotels, which reopened under health protocols in June and July, are now recording occupancy rates of 30–50 percent at the leading Punta Cana properties — still well below normal viability thresholds but representing a meaningful recovery from the near-zero levels of April and May. This operational head-start has allowed the DR’s hotel industry to accumulate practical experience in pandemic-era operations that competitors are only now beginning to acquire.

The DR’s residential property market is also showing some recovery, with diaspora buyers — particularly the large Dominican community in the United States — returning to the market. The Santiago and Santo Domingo residential corridors have seen some transaction activity, and the resort residential segments in Punta Cana and Casa de Campo are fielding increased inquiries from international buyers. The DR’s property market benefits from some of the most competitive price points in the Caribbean for comparable quality, which is particularly attractive to buyers priced out of Barbados or Cayman options.

Jamaica: Resilient Corridors Building Momentum

Jamaica’s Resilient Corridors programme is entering its third month of operation with results that are modest but directionally positive. August visitor arrivals were higher than July’s, as airlines including American Airlines and JetBlue gradually restored frequencies on key routes from Miami, New York, and Atlanta. Hotel occupancy within the approved corridors — centred on the Rose Hall and Ironshore areas of Montego Bay, with Ocho Rios beginning to welcome some visitors — has crept into the 15–25 percent range at reopened properties.

The Jamaica property market is registering the early stages of the reshuffling dynamic, though less intensely than Barbados given the absence of an equivalent to the Welcome Stamp. Diaspora buyers — particularly Jamaicans resident in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada — are showing renewed interest in Jamaica property, partly driven by pandemic-induced reflection on roots and lifestyle, and partly by the opportunity to acquire at a time when the tourism industry’s distress means that some motivated vendors are open to negotiation. The NHT continues to provide a bedrock of domestic demand for the middle market, though the wider domestic economy’s unemployment pressures are limiting the pool of new qualified borrowers.

The luxury end of Jamaica’s North Coast market — particularly the Round Hill, Half Moon, and Tryall Club corridors — has seen several significant property transactions in recent weeks, with buyers in the US$1–5 million range completing purchases that had been researched remotely and finalised during in-person site visits enabled by Jamaica’s reopened borders. These transactions are individually significant for confidence but do not yet represent a broad market recovery.

Remittances: A Critical Household Income Floor

One of the more surprising positive developments in the Caribbean economic story has been the resilience of remittance flows from diaspora communities in North America and Europe. Initial forecasts made in the spring of 2020 anticipated a significant fall in remittances as pandemic-related unemployment affected Caribbean diaspora communities. In practice, the picture has been more nuanced: while some diaspora workers in sectors like hospitality and retail did lose income, a substantial proportion of Caribbean diaspora in North America work in essential services — healthcare, food processing, logistics, construction — where employment has been maintained or increased during the pandemic.

The World Bank has revised its Caribbean remittance forecasts upward from initial pessimistic projections, noting that flows to Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Eastern Caribbean have been more resilient than feared. For the property market, remittances are a critical input: they fund household consumption that maintains mortgage serviceability, they provide deposit savings for first-time buyers, and in some cases they directly fund property purchases in recipient countries. The maintenance of remittance flows through the crisis is one of the factors that has helped prevent the feared wave of mortgage defaults and forced selling.

Caribbean Leaders This Month

Barbados Welcome Stamp Programme continues to be the Caribbean’s most celebrated pandemic-era innovation, with application volumes and media coverage maintaining momentum through the summer. The programme’s execution — combining a simple online application with rapid processing — is setting a standard for Caribbean government digital services.

Dominican Republic Tourism Ministry has accumulated three months of reopening operational data that is now being studied by every other Caribbean destination. The DR’s experience with health protocols in all-inclusive environments is proving that large-scale resort operations can function safely in a pandemic context.

Jamaica Tourism Authority has maintained consistent positive messaging about the Resilient Corridors programme, managing the delicate balance between encouraging visitors and reassuring them about safety — a communications challenge without precedent in the sector’s history.

Caribbean luxury property developers in Barbados, Turks and Caicos, and Jamaica’s North Coast deserve collective recognition for maintaining sales and marketing operations through the crisis and for successfully converting the surge of international buyer interest into actual transactions. Their salesmanship during an extraordinarily difficult period has been genuinely impressive.

ExxonMobil Guyana continues Liza Phase 1 operations, and Guyana’s new president, Irfaan Ali, who took office in August following the resolution of the disputed election, is moving quickly to establish his administration’s approach to oil revenue management and broader economic policy, with significant implications for Caribbean investment.

National Hurricane Center has been operating at extraordinary intensity tracking the record-setting 2020 season, providing the forecast quality and advance warning that Caribbean communities and businesses depend on for preparation. Its forecasting of Hurricane Laura’s intensification was particularly precise and potentially life-saving.

World Bank Caribbean Desk revised its remittance forecasts to reflect better-than-feared outcomes, providing important analytical clarity on one of the most important income streams for Caribbean household financial resilience during the crisis.

Overall regional performer this month: The Barbados Welcome Stamp programme and the Mottley government’s broader economic innovation continue to represent the Caribbean’s most compelling example of pandemic-era strategic leadership, positioning Barbados as the benchmark for digital nomad attraction and premium market repositioning.

Looking Ahead

September and October are traditionally the highest-risk months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the 2020 season’s extraordinary pace of activity means that the risk of major Caribbean impacts in the weeks ahead must be taken seriously. The record number of named storms and the warm sea surface temperatures that are fuelling them create conditions for potential major hurricane development on any system that moves into the western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico.

For the property market, the September–November period represents a critical window. Buyers who have been researching through the summer, and who have been emboldened by the Welcome Stamp narrative and the Jamaica reopening story, will be making decisions about whether to commit capital in 2020 or defer into 2021. The quality of on-island experiences for those who visit during this period — the ease of entry processes, the hotel and service standards at reopened properties, the reliability of connectivity for those testing the remote worker lifestyle — will be decisive in converting interest to transactions.

The global COVID-19 picture remains uncertain. Several European countries that appeared to have managed the first wave successfully through the summer are now seeing renewed increases in case counts as colder weather reduces outdoor activity. If North American and European source markets implement new restrictions or travel advisories in the autumn, Caribbean destination reopenings could face a second setback. Caribbean health and tourism authorities are monitoring this situation closely, recognising that their recovery is ultimately contingent on conditions in their source markets as much as on their own management of the health situation.

The Caribbean Property & Investment Review is published fortnightly for professionals and investors active in Caribbean real estate and tourism markets. All market data and assessments reflect conditions as of the publication date. This publication does not constitute investment advice.