Published: 2 April 2023 | Jamaica Homes News
Key Takeaways
- Remittances: solid Q1 2023 opening: Bank of Jamaica data indicated remittances remained broadly on track in the opening quarter of 2023, with January reporting confirming continued inflows of approximately US$250 million for the month. The post-pandemic normalisation trajectory was in line with analyst expectations, with 2023 anticipated to post a total modestly below 2022’s US$3.44 billion.
- National Diaspora Policy: moving from adoption to implementation: Adopted by Cabinet in November 2022, Jamaica’s first comprehensive National Diaspora Policy entered its initial implementation phase in Q1 2023, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade’s Diaspora Affairs Department initiating the institutional arrangements, sector working group structures, and inter-ministerial coordination frameworks specified in the policy document.
- 9th Biennial Conference commitments: inter-ministerial follow-through underway: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade continued to coordinate implementation of the commitments made at the June 2022 9th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference, including diaspora investment facilitation, housing for returnees, youth empowerment, and the diaspora registration and engagement portal.
- UK cost-of-living: sustained pressure entering 2023: The United Kingdom entered 2023 still in the grip of its worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, with CPI inflation running above 10 per cent and real wage growth remaining deeply negative for much of the working population. The British-Jamaican community, concentrated in lower-wage service occupations, continued to face real constraints on remittance-sending capacity.
- Biden deportations: baseline continuation: The Biden administration’s targeted immigration enforcement framework continued to generate a baseline volume of deportation flights to Jamaica through Q1 2023, with PICA’s reception and RISE Life Management Services’ reintegration protocols processing returnee arrivals consistently. No significant policy shifts in US deportation practice were announced during the quarter.
- Consular capacity: high-demand visa and passport processing continues: Jamaica’s network of overseas missions — particularly the embassy in Washington DC and the consulate in New York — continued to process high volumes of passport, emergency travel document, and consular services applications, with diaspora community groups flagging appointment availability and processing time as persistent operational concerns.
Introduction: A Policy Framework Meets the Ground
The first quarter of 2023 carried a significance for Jamaica’s diaspora policy architecture that exceeded any single headline event. The adoption of the National Diaspora Policy in November 2022 had been the culmination of years of consultative development, academic research, and civil society advocacy. Now, in the opening months of 2023, the more demanding task began: translating the policy’s strategic intentions into institutional reality, operational capacity, and measurable impact.
The question that diaspora community leaders, development practitioners, and academic researchers were asking by the close of Q1 was straightforward: would this policy be different? Jamaica had a history of diaspora engagement initiatives that generated significant goodwill and reasonable early momentum before meeting the twin obstacles of inter-ministerial coordination failure and inadequate resourcing. The National Diaspora Policy’s architects had studied those failures carefully and attempted to design against them. Q1 2023 was the beginning of the real test.
Against this institutional backdrop, the quarter’s economic and remittance picture was broadly steady. The world the diaspora was sending money into remained positive: Jamaica’s post-pandemic recovery was sustaining momentum, tourism was continuing its strong return, and the fiscal position was disciplined. This report draws on the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, MFAFT, PICA, and Caribbean diaspora media to document Q1 2023.
Remittances: Sustaining Scale as Normalisation Continues
Jamaica’s remittance inflows through Q1 2023 confirmed the pattern that analysts had anticipated: continued strong volume, running modestly below the exceptional 2022 pace, as the pandemic-era boost to diaspora saving and generosity gradually unwound. Bank of Jamaica data for January 2023 showed remittances of approximately US$250 million for the month, a figure consistent with the broad scale of Jamaica’s US$3 billion-plus annual remittance corridor. The February and March 2023 data were not yet available as of this report’s preparation, but the January figure suggested Q1 2023 would be solidly in line with the Q1 2022 baseline.
The United States remained Jamaica’s single largest remittance source market, and the US labour market’s resilience through the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s was critical to this performance. Despite fourteen months of consecutive interest rate increases, the US unemployment rate remained near 50-year lows as of Q1 2023, and the sectors employing the largest concentrations of Jamaican-born workers — healthcare, hospitality, construction, domestic services — continued to see strong demand. The diaspora’s sending capacity remained robust.
The UK picture was more constrained. Consumer Price Inflation in the United Kingdom had hit a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October 2022 and remained above 10 per cent through Q1 2023. For the British-Jamaican community — overrepresented in care work, transport, cleaning, and hospitality relative to the broader UK labour market — the real wage squeeze was acute. Elevated energy bills, food price inflation, and mortgage rate increases for those who had recently come off fixed-rate deals combined to reduce the discretionary income available for remittance sending. BOJ data consistently showed UK remittance flows growing more slowly than US-origin flows through the inflationary period.
The Canadian market continued to grow as a remittance source, driven by the expansion of the Jamaican community in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta and the continued strong performance of the SAWP labour mobility programme. Canadian remittances, while a significantly smaller aggregate than the US or UK flows, were growing at a faster rate than either, and the formalisation of SAWP remittance corridors — some operated through payroll deduction schemes that sent funds directly to Jamaican accounts — provided an efficient and low-cost channel for seasonal worker remittances.
National Diaspora Policy: Implementation Begins
The National Diaspora Policy’s adoption by Cabinet on 9 November 2022 marked the culmination of a consultative process that had spanned multiple years and engaged Jamaican communities across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and other diaspora centres. The policy established Jamaica’s strategic framework for diaspora engagement across six thematic pillars: economic development, social and cultural engagement, political participation, knowledge and skills transfer, diaspora registration and data, and institutional strengthening.
In Q1 2023, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade’s Diaspora Affairs Department began translating the policy into operational reality. This involved establishing the sector working groups for each of the policy’s six pillars, engaging partner ministries to develop their respective implementation plans, and beginning the design work for the Diaspora Registration Portal — the digital infrastructure that would allow Jamaicans overseas to formally register with the government, access consular and diaspora programme services, and receive targeted information.
The investment facilitation pillar attracted particular attention. The policy committed Jamaica to developing investment vehicles through which diaspora capital could be channelled into Jamaican projects more easily, with the Development Bank of Jamaica and the Jamaica Promotions Corporation engaged to develop the diaspora investment pipeline product that would provide diaspora investors with vetted, accessible investment opportunities. The challenge was both technical — creating the legal and financial structures for diaspora investment — and reputational, building the trust that had been eroded by past experiences of investment fraud and poor governance in Jamaican investment schemes.
9th Biennial Conference: Working Group Implementation
The 9th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference, held in Montego Bay in June 2022, had brought together an estimated 3,000 diaspora members and government representatives for the first in-person biennial gathering since COVID-19. The conference’s working groups had produced recommendations across all areas of diaspora engagement, and the government had made specific commitments in response. Nine months on, the MFAFT’s conference implementation team was engaged in the systematic follow-through.
In the housing and returnee settlement domain, the working group’s recommendation for a dedicated diaspora and returnee housing product from the National Housing Trust was under active assessment, with a feasibility study commissioned to determine whether a special NHT scheme could be structured to serve overseas contributors who were planning to return and domestic returnees in the initial years after their return. The existing NHT rules required five qualifying years of contribution from Jamaican employees and the self-employed, but overseas diaspora members who had never worked formally in Jamaica had no direct access to NHT benefits — a structural gap the working group had identified as a priority for resolution.
UK Cost-of-Living Crisis: Community Impact
By Q1 2023, the United Kingdom’s cost-of-living crisis had been in force for over a year. The combination of post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, elevated energy costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the Bank of England’s aggressive interest rate response had produced conditions that were squeezing British households across the income distribution, with the sharpest impact on those in the lowest income deciles.
For the British-Jamaican community — estimated at 800,000 to one million people of Jamaican heritage in the UK — the crisis was acutely felt. Community organisations including the Windrush Foundation, the Caribbean Diaspora Support Group, and local community centres reported increased demand for emergency food support, benefit advice, and debt counselling from Jamaican and Caribbean families who had previously been financially stable. The squeeze on discretionary income was directly affecting the volume and regularity of remittances to Jamaica, with some senders pausing or reducing their monthly transfers to family members on the island.
The Windrush Compensation Scheme, which had been created specifically to compensate members of the Windrush generation wrongly affected by the Home Office’s hostile environment policies, remained deeply unsatisfactory for many affected families. By Q1 2023, the scheme’s processing backlog and the scale of awards — which critics described as inadequate relative to the documented losses — continued to generate significant frustration. Diaspora advocacy organisations maintained pressure through parliamentary engagement, media advocacy, and legal challenge for a more generous and more efficiently administered compensation process.
Deportations: Biden Administration Framework
The Biden administration’s immigration enforcement framework, characterised by a stated focus on public safety threats, national security cases, and recent border crossings rather than the broad enforcement posture of its predecessor, continued to generate a baseline of deportation removals to Jamaica through Q1 2023. PICA’s reception and processing protocols for arriving deportees were well-established, and RISE Life Management Services maintained its reintegration support capacity for those deportees who engaged with its programmes.
Community advocacy organisations in the Jamaican-American diaspora continued to work on behalf of long-settled community members who faced deportation despite having lived in the United States for decades, in some cases having arrived as children and having no meaningful connection to Jamaica. The intersecting challenges of criminal record-based deportability, the outdated legal framework governing long-term residents’ deportation vulnerability, and the Biden administration’s stated but not fully implemented enforcement priorities provided the context for an ongoing advocacy campaign that sought legislative reform to provide relief to the most compelling cases.
Returnees: PICA Processing and Housing Challenge
The Passport, Immigration and Citizenship Agency continued its processing of applications from returning residents seeking duty concessions on imported household and personal goods under the Returning Residents programme. The programme’s administrative processes were broadly functional, but community groups continued to note that awareness among potential returnees — particularly in the UK and Canada — was lower than ideal, with many returnees not discovering the programme’s benefits until after they had already arranged shipping and were therefore unable to take full advantage of the concessions available.
Housing remained the most frequently cited pre-return anxiety among the UK Jamaican community members exploring return migration. The combination of Jamaica’s formal housing sector supply constraints, elevated land and construction costs, and the preference concentration among returnees for specific parishes and communities produced a housing market reality that was consistently more difficult and more expensive than returnees anticipated. Community groups had been calling for a structured returnee housing support service — encompassing pre-return property search guidance, connections to trustworthy estate agents and lawyers, and information on the NHT’s options for returnees — as a practical, near-term response to the challenge that did not require the longer-horizon legislative reforms also under discussion.
Economic Context: 2022 Full-Year Performance
As Q1 2023 unfolded, the most recent complete economic picture available was the 2022 full-year performance, which PIOJ had reported as GDP growth of approximately 5.2 per cent — a strong result that reflected the sustained tourism recovery, buoyant construction activity, and strong services sector performance. The 2022 result provided a positive baseline for the diaspora investment and returnee housing market, and the broad economic momentum was supportive of the government’s diaspora engagement ambitions.
The Bank of Jamaica’s monetary policy tightening through 2022 and into 2023 had brought Jamaica’s inflation rate down from its 2022 peak, though it remained above the central bank’s target range. The government’s fiscal consolidation programme — maintained through successive IMF programme reviews — was on track, with the debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining trajectory. These fundamentals, while not guaranteeing smooth conditions for diaspora investors, provided a more stable macro environment than Jamaica had offered in earlier decades.
Outlook for Q2 2023
The second quarter of 2023 will be a critical test of the National Diaspora Policy’s implementation momentum. The sector working groups’ outputs, the progress of the Diaspora Registration Portal design work, and the first concrete steps toward diaspora investment product development will all become visible through Q2. Diaspora community leaders, who supported the policy’s adoption enthusiastically in late 2022, will be watching closely to see whether that support is validated by tangible early delivery.
On the remittance side, the BOJ’s Q1 2023 data release — expected in the coming weeks — will provide the first full quarterly picture and an indication of whether the year is tracking to sustain or exceed the 2022 level. The UK economic outlook — particularly the trajectory of inflation and the likelihood of a UK recession in 2023 — will determine whether the British-Jamaican remittance corridor continues its relative underperformance. The SAWP season will begin in earnest through April and May, bringing fresh remittance flows from Canadian farm work placements.
This Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora and Returnee Update is researched and published by Jamaica Homes News. Sources consulted include the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Nationwide News Network, RJR News, Caribbean National Weekly, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, and PICA. All figures and developments are accurate as of the publication date, 2 April 2023.
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