Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora & Returnee Update — April to June 2023

Published: 2 July 2023 | Jamaica Homes News

Key Takeaways

• Strong remittance opening to 2023: Jamaica’s remittance inflows opened the year solidly, with approximately US$500 million flowing in January and February 2023 alone, according to Bank of Jamaica and Jamaica Gleaner reporting. This pace sustained the broad scale of Jamaica’s remittance corridor, even as the exceptional pandemic-era volumes of 2020 and 2021 continued to normalise.
• Q1 2023 GDP maintains positive trajectory: The Planning Institute of Jamaica’s Q1 2023 economic review confirmed continued positive GDP growth, broadly consistent with the 2022 recovery trajectory, supported by tourism, services, and agriculture. The Q2 2023 figure was expected from PIOJ in the coming weeks.
• National Diaspora Policy: first year of implementation: Adopted by Cabinet in November 2022, the National Diaspora Policy entered its first full year of operational implementation, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade developing institutional frameworks, sector working groups, and measurement systems to guide the policy’s translation from document to practice.
• 9th Biennial Conference: active follow-through: Commitments made at the 9th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference, held in June 2022, were being actively pursued through inter-ministerial working groups and partnership mechanisms, with housing for returnees, diaspora investment facilitation, and skills transfer among the areas receiving focused implementation attention.
• UK cost-of-living crisis: continuing pressure on British-Jamaican senders: The United Kingdom’s sustained cost-of-living crisis — driven by elevated energy and food prices and the pass-through effects of global inflationary pressures — continued to suppress real incomes among lower-wage British-Jamaican workers, affecting the pace of remittance growth from the UK, Jamaica’s second-largest source market.
• Voluntary returnees: UK flows dominant, housing challenge persists: Voluntary return migration from the United Kingdom to Jamaica continued at a consistent pace through Q2 2023, driven by retiring Windrush generation members and a growing cohort of younger working-age returnees. Housing affordability in preferred parishes remained the most frequently cited barrier to smooth reintegration.

Introduction: Building Institutional Momentum

The second quarter of 2023 was characterised above all by institutional momentum — the steady, deliberate work of translating the ambitions of the National Diaspora Policy into operational reality. Without a biennial conference to generate media coverage and political attention, the quarter’s diaspora story unfolded through working group meetings, policy documents, investment prospectuses, and the quiet accumulation of programme delivery across the Returning Residents scheme, the Seasonal Agricultural Worker Programme, and the RISE Life Management Services reintegration infrastructure.

The remittance picture was broadly positive: the year had opened strongly, and while the cumulative 2023 figure was running modestly below 2022’s pace on a year-on-year basis, the gap was not alarming and was consistent with the post-pandemic normalisation that analysts had anticipated. The economic backdrop, sustained by a resilient tourism sector and the continued contribution of the mining and agriculture sectors, provided a reasonable foundation for the government’s diaspora engagement aspirations.

This quarterly update draws on the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Nationwide News Network, RJR News, Caribbean National Weekly, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, and PICA to compile the record of Q2 2023 diaspora developments.

Remittances: US$500 Million in January–February Sets the Tone

The Jamaica Gleaner’s April 2023 reporting that nearly US$500 million in remittances had flowed to Jamaica in January and February alone — a pace broadly consistent with the equivalent 2022 months — provided an early indication that the remittance market’s fundamentals remained sound even as the exceptional pandemic-era boost unwound. The opening figure suggested that 2023 would sustain Jamaica’s position as one of the Caribbean’s most significant remittance recipients, even if the final full-year total fell short of 2022’s US$3.44 billion.

The United States labour market’s resilience through the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle was a key supporting factor. US employers — including those in healthcare, construction, transportation, and domestic services, all sectors with substantial Jamaican-born workforces — maintained strong hiring and wage growth through the first half of 2023, supporting the sending capacity of Jamaican-American workers across the income distribution. US unemployment remained near historic lows, and the Federal Reserve’s tightening had not, as of mid-2023, produced the recession that some analysts had projected.

The United Kingdom presented a more challenging picture. Inflation had peaked at over 11 per cent in late 2022 and was declining but remained elevated in mid-2023, at levels that continued to erode the real purchasing power of lower-income British workers. For the British-Jamaican community — where a significant proportion of workers are employed in care, hospitality, transport, and cleaning services — the cost-of-living squeeze was acutely felt. BOJ data showed UK flows growing at a slower rate than US inflows, consistent with the differential economic conditions between the two markets.

The digital transformation of the remittance market continued through Q2 2023. Application-based transfer services — led by platforms such as Remitly, Wise, and WorldRemit, as well as Jamaica National’s own digital offering — continued to gain market share at the expense of traditional over-the-counter agents. The trend was positive for Jamaican recipients, who benefited from lower costs and faster transfer times, but represented a structural challenge for the agent-network business model that has historically provided the physical infrastructure for rural and low-income Jamaicans’ remittance access.

Economic Performance: Sustained Positive Growth

Jamaica’s economy maintained its positive post-pandemic growth trajectory through Q1 2023, with PIOJ’s Q1 2023 review confirming continued expansion. While the Q1 2023 figure represented a deceleration from the exceptional 2022 growth pace — which had itself benefited from strong base effects as the economy rebounded from pandemic-era contractions — the underlying sectoral picture remained broadly constructive. Tourism continued to recover, with visitor arrivals and hotel occupancy rates approaching and in some months exceeding pre-pandemic levels. The services sector benefited from this hospitality recovery and from continued strength in financial services and telecommunications.

Agriculture faced more challenging conditions through the first half of 2023, with variable rainfall patterns in some parishes affecting yield and domestic food prices remaining elevated above historical norms. The mining sector was subject to the global commodity price environment, with alumina and bauxite revenues tracking world market conditions. Construction activity remained buoyant, supported by government infrastructure programmes and private sector development activity across the tourism and commercial property sectors.

The Bank of Jamaica maintained a cautious monetary policy posture through the quarter, with inflation still above the medium-term target range despite the easing of global supply chain pressures. The government’s fiscal position remained disciplined, with the debt management programme on track and the IMF’s programme benchmarks being met. For diaspora investors evaluating Jamaica’s investment environment, the combination of positive growth, fiscal stability, and monetary caution provided a broadly encouraging signal.

National Diaspora Policy: First Year, Institutional Architecture

The National Diaspora Policy, adopted by Jamaica’s Cabinet in November 2022, entered its first full operational year through Q2 2023. The policy — the most comprehensive and formal statement of Jamaica’s approach to diaspora engagement ever produced — established the framework for how Jamaica would cultivate, channel, and measure the contributions of its global diaspora over the medium term. Its implementation required building the institutional architecture that would make the policy’s aspirations operational: the sector working groups, the investment facilitation mechanisms, the diaspora registration infrastructure, and the monitoring systems through which progress would be assessed.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade’s Diaspora Affairs Department led the implementation effort, working with partner ministries — including Finance and the Public Service, Labour and Social Security, Agriculture, and Housing — to develop sector-specific implementation plans. The policy’s emphasis on diaspora investment facilitation required particular attention, as translating diaspora goodwill into structured financial investment in Jamaica demanded both the legal and regulatory frameworks to make investment accessible and the trusted intermediary institutions through which diaspora capital could flow into Jamaican projects with confidence.

The government’s progress on National Diaspora Policy implementation was being monitored by diaspora community organisations, international development partners including the IOM and World Bank, and academic researchers tracking Caribbean diaspora engagement. The consensus view was that the policy represented a significant step forward in ambition, and that the quality of implementation in the first year or two would determine whether it delivered real change or joined the long history of well-intentioned diaspora policy documents that generated little lasting impact.

9th Biennial Conference: Commitments in Action

The 9th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference, held in June 2022 as the first in-person biennial gathering since COVID-19, had produced a substantial set of working group recommendations and governmental commitments across the full range of diaspora policy areas. One year on, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade was engaged in the detailed follow-through work that would determine the conference’s lasting impact.

In the area of diaspora investment, the ministry was working with the Jamaica Promotions Corporation and the Development Bank of Jamaica to develop investment pipeline products through which diaspora capital could be matched with Jamaican business and infrastructure opportunities. In the housing and returnee settlement area, the Ministry was engaged with the National Housing Trust and the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation on the feasibility of diaspora-specific housing schemes. The youth empowerment agenda was progressing through a set of mentorship and scholarship programmes that connected diaspora professionals with Jamaican secondary and tertiary students.

Windrush: Landmark Court Ruling and Continuing Advocacy

The Windrush Compensation Scheme remained a live and contentious issue in Q2 2023. The United Kingdom’s scheme, established to compensate members of the Windrush generation wrongly denied rights under the Home Office’s hostile environment policies, continued to face criticism from affected families and their advocates for slow processing, inadequate compensation levels, and a systemic failure to proactively identify and reach the most vulnerable claimants. Community legal organisations documented cases of elderly Caribbean community members who had been wrongly denied access to healthcare, pension benefits, and residence documentation dying before their claims were resolved.

Jamaica’s High Commission in London maintained active engagement with Windrush-affected Jamaicans and their families, and the Jamaican government’s official position — that the Windrush scandal reflected a fundamental failure of the UK’s obligations to Commonwealth citizens — continued to be articulated in bilateral and Commonwealth settings. Diaspora advocacy organisations including the Windrush Justice Clinic maintained pressure on the UK government for a faster, more generous, and more transparent compensation process.

Returnees and Reintegration

Voluntary return migration from the United Kingdom to Jamaica continued at a consistent pace through Q2 2023. The Returning Residents programme processed applications for duty concessions on household and personal effects, with a diverse cohort of returnees spanning retired Windrush generation members, early retirees, and working-age lifestyle migrants choosing to relocate to Jamaica. The programme’s administrative efficiency had improved through the preceding years, but community groups continued to report that information about the programme’s benefits was not reaching potential returnees early enough to inform their pre-departure planning.

Housing remained the primary challenge. Returnees arriving in Jamaica after decades in the UK consistently reported difficulty finding formal sector accommodation that met their expectations at prices they could afford in the parishes they wished to settle. The hill communities of St Andrew, Manchester, and Portland — perennial favourites of UK-based returnees for their cooler climate, lower crime, and strong community networks — were seeing price appreciation that was making them less accessible to returnees of more modest means. The NHT’s affordable housing schemes in lower-demand parishes provided an alternative, but location preferences remained a significant constraint on uptake.

Labour Mobility and Deportees

Canada’s Seasonal Agricultural Worker Programme was in full operation through Q2 2023, with Jamaican workers on placement at Canadian farms completing their contractual periods and contributing to both Canadian agricultural production and Jamaica’s remittance flows. The SAWP continued to be one of the most valued and equitable labour mobility mechanisms in the Caribbean, providing structured, protected employment with health coverage, accommodation, and guaranteed minimum wages — a stark contrast to the informal and unregulated labour migration channels that many Caribbean workers used as alternatives.

Deportee arrivals from the United States under the Biden administration’s enforcement framework continued at a baseline pace consistent with recent years. PICA processed arrivals within established protocols, and RISE Life Management Services provided reintegration support. The Biden administration’s targeted enforcement approach — focused on serious criminal convictions and recent border crossings rather than broad sweeps of long-settled communities — maintained a relatively stable deportation environment for Jamaica through the first half of 2023.

Outlook for Q3 2023

The third quarter of 2023 will bring the Atlantic hurricane season’s peak activity period — statistically, the greatest concentration of Caribbean hurricane risk falls between mid-August and mid-October. Jamaica’s preparedness infrastructure will be tested by whatever the season produces, and the diaspora’s emergency response capacity will remain on standby throughout. The absence of a major storm in a given year is always a relief rather than a guarantee, and community preparedness remains a year-round priority for both the government and diaspora organisations.

Remittances through Q3 will be closely watched for signs of the broader trend’s direction. The Christmas season uplift in Q4 typically provides the year’s strongest monthly performance, and the full-year 2023 total will be critically dependent on whether Q3 sustains or underperforms relative to 2022. The PIOJ’s Q2 2023 GDP estimates, expected later in July or in August, will provide an important update on the economic environment into which the diaspora is investing and to which returnees are arriving.

This Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora and Returnee Update is researched and published by Jamaica Homes News. Sources consulted include the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Nationwide News Network, RJR News, Caribbean National Weekly, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, and PICA. All figures and developments are accurate as of the publication date, 2 July 2023.

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