Publication Date: 3 July 2023 | Coverage Period: 3 June – 2 July 2023
Morning Briefing
- Guyana’s oil production crossed the symbolic 300,000 barrels per day threshold in June 2023 as the Prosperity FPSO continued its ramp-up on the Stabroek Block, delivering a milestone that positions Guyana among the significant oil producers of the Americas and is driving Georgetown’s extraordinary property market appreciation.
- Caribbean summer tourism is outperforming expectations across all major destinations, with Jamaica, Barbados, the Dominican Republic and the OECS islands reporting June arrivals tracking well above June 2022, continuing the record-breaking momentum that characterised the 2022–23 winter season.
- Airbnb listings in the Caribbean grew by approximately 20 percent year-on-year to June 2023, with Jamaica’s north coast, Barbados and the Dominican Republic’s Punta Cana and Las Terrenas corridors accounting for the majority of new inventory, as investor interest in the short-term rental model continues to intensify.
- The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season opened on 1 June and has been relatively quiet through late June, consistent with the typical pattern of activity building through August and September, though NOAA’s above-normal season forecast remains in effect and property insurance renewal season is producing elevated premiums across the region.
- Hotel investment pipeline activity across the Caribbean reached its highest level since pre-pandemic 2019, with multiple international hotel brand announcements in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and the OECS confirming that the tourism industry’s return to strength has catalysed a new wave of hospitality investment.
- Georgetown, Guyana’s residential property market recorded average price appreciation of approximately 35 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2023, as oil sector demand for housing from expatriate professionals and oil economy-enriched local buyers dramatically outstrips available supply.
Guyana Crosses 300,000 Barrels: A Transformative Oil Milestone
June 2023 delivered what was, even by the extraordinary standards of Guyana’s oil production expansion, a landmark moment: output from the ExxonMobil, Hess and CNOOC-operated Stabroek Block crossed 300,000 barrels per day. The milestone is significant not merely as a round number but as a marker of Guyana’s transition from promising emerging producer to established significant player in the Americas oil market. At 300,000 barrels per day, Guyana’s production exceeds that of several OPEC member states and positions the country — with approximately 800,000 people and a land area roughly the size of the United Kingdom — as a per capita energy producer of extraordinary magnitude.
The Prosperity FPSO, the third floating production storage and offloading vessel to begin operations on the Stabroek Block, completed its ramp-up phase in the second quarter of 2023. Combined with the production from the earlier Liza Destiny and Liza Unity FPSOs, the Prosperity platform pushed total Stabroek output to and beyond the 300,000 barrels per day level. ExxonMobil’s forward production guidance, based on the development programme for additional FPSO vessels approved for the Payara, Yellowtail and Hammerhead fields, suggests that production could reach 750,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day by the late 2020s — a trajectory that would make Guyana one of the most significant new oil producers of the decade globally.
The impact on Georgetown’s property market continues to be both dramatic and well-documented. Average residential property prices in prime Georgetown neighbourhoods — Bel Air Park, Campbellville, Lamaha Gardens, Queenstown — appreciated by approximately 35 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2023, according to data compiled by local real estate agencies. This extraordinary appreciation reflects the collision between rapid demand growth — driven by expatriate professionals on oil sector packages, Guyanese nationals enriched by the energy economy, and regional investors who have identified Guyana as the Caribbean’s most compelling growth market — and a supply pipeline that cannot respond quickly enough to new construction demand given land title complexity, planning constraints and construction capacity limitations.
Commercial property in Georgetown tells an equally striking story. Class A office space — of which there is very limited quantity in a city that had minimal institutional-grade commercial real estate before the oil boom — is commanding monthly rents in the US$30 to US$60 per square foot range, levels that are competitive with major Caribbean financial centres despite Georgetown lacking the infrastructure and amenity base of Nassau, the Caymans or Barbados. International energy service companies, financial institutions and professional services firms establishing Guyana offices are paying these rates because the alternative — operating without a local Guyana presence in the region’s most dynamic economy — is commercially untenable for serious market participants.
Caribbean Summer Tourism: Defying the Seasonal Pattern
June tourism performance across the Caribbean in 2023 has continued the pattern of exceptional performance that has characterised the post-pandemic era: the region is not merely recovering its pre-2020 visitor numbers but is demonstrably exceeding them and, in many destinations, doing so in months that historically represented genuine shoulder season demand. For Jamaica, the Jamaica Tourist Board’s June data will show stopover arrivals tracking well above June 2022 levels — themselves ahead of 2019. The island’s appeal to North American visitors seeking a tropical destination within three to five hours of their home cities has been reinforced by sustained airlift investment from American Airlines, Southwest (to Montego Bay), JetBlue, Air Canada and WestJet.
The cruise sector is contributing significantly to June Jamaica performance, with the Falmouth Cruise Port — one of the largest in the Caribbean by berth capacity — receiving vessels from the major cruise lines at high frequency. While cruise passenger spending per visit is lower than that of stopover visitors, the volume effect on Port of Call communities is substantial, and the investment in Kingston’s historic district as a cruise destination — through the Urban Development Corporation’s downtown Kingston revitalisation programme — is beginning to pay dividends in attracting ships to the capital alongside the established Falmouth and Montego Bay ports.
The Dominican Republic’s summer season is, as always, underpinned by the massive all-inclusive resort infrastructure of Punta Cana, which operates at high occupancy year-round regardless of what Northern Hemisphere visitors might regard as the ‘off season’. June brings North American school-holiday visitors, European summer tourists for whom the Caribbean represents a warm-weather alternative to Mediterranean destinations, and a significant volume of Latin American visitors from Colombia, Panama, Brazil and Mexico for whom the DR’s accessibility and cultural familiarity make it the natural choice for a tropical getaway.
Short-Term Rental Boom: Reshaping Caribbean Property Investment
The Caribbean short-term rental market is experiencing a structural growth phase that is fundamentally altering the investment economics and market composition of property in key tourism destinations. Airbnb listings across the Caribbean grew by approximately 20 percent year-on-year to June 2023, a growth rate that reflects not only the conversion of existing long-term rental and owner-occupied properties to platform use but also the targeted acquisition of properties specifically for short-term rental investment by a growing community of professional rental operators.
Jamaica’s north coast is the region’s most developed short-term rental investment market in per-destination terms. The corridor from Montego Bay to Ocho Rios, encompassing the major resort communities of Tryall, Round Hill, Rose Hall, Discovery Bay and Runaway Bay, has seen significant growth in platform listings as property owners who previously relied on long-term rentals or seasonal occupancy have converted to year-round short-term rental management. The gross rental yields achievable on well-positioned north coast properties through active platform management — estimated at 9 to 14 percent on purchase price in the current environment — represent a compelling alternative to the 4 to 5 percent long-term rental yields that the same properties would generate in conventional letting arrangements.
The Dominican Republic’s Las Terrenas and Cabarete communities have become two of the Caribbean’s most notable short-term rental investment clusters. Las Terrenas, on the Samana Peninsula, combines accessibility from Santo Domingo (two to three hours by road), beachfront and near-beachfront properties at prices well below comparable Barbados or Jamaica assets, and a European-influenced lifestyle community that has made the town a favourite of French, Italian, Swiss and German second-home buyers. Airbnb listings in Las Terrenas have grown rapidly, with average nightly rates in the US$120 to US$280 range and occupancy rates of 60 to 75 percent year-round generating returns that attract sophisticated property investors from across Europe and North America.
Barbados’s short-term rental market is shaped by the island’s premium positioning, which means that the inventory is heavily skewed toward higher-end properties — villas and apartments that command nightly rates of US$300 to US$3,000 and above during peak season. The Airbnb platform’s Barbados listings are concentrated in the luxury segment, reflecting the island’s brand as a destination for discerning travellers with the spending power to match. Professional villa management companies on the island have developed sophisticated marketing and operational capabilities that achieve occupancy rates across the full year that would be impressive even by peak-season standards, making Barbados villas among the most commercially successful short-term rental assets in the Caribbean.
Hotel Investment Pipeline: Record Commitments Across the Region
The record tourism performance of 2022–23 has triggered a corresponding wave of hotel investment commitments across the Caribbean that will shape the region’s accommodation landscape for the balance of this decade. The hotel investment pipeline — measured by the number of rooms in various stages of planning, permitting and construction — is at its highest level since the pre-pandemic boom of 2018–19, with commitments concentrated in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and several OECS destinations.
In Jamaica, Sandals Resorts International’s ongoing expansion programme — with new properties either under construction or in advanced planning at Dunn’s River and elsewhere — represents the most visible element of a broader north coast hotel development pipeline. International brands including Marriott (through its Autograph Collection and other sub-brands), Hilton and Hyatt are all engaged in Jamaica projects, responding to the island’s demonstrated ability to sustain high occupancy and room rates across an extended season. The Investment Promotion Agency’s role in facilitating these investments through the Hotel Incentives Act framework is a critical enabling factor.
Across the OECS, CBI-linked resort investment remains the dominant driver of new hotel supply. In St Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, Antigua and St Lucia, approved CBI resort projects provide a subsidised demand signal for hotel development that is unique to the Caribbean CBI-active jurisdiction group: developers can pre-sell resort units as CBI-qualifying investments, using the proceeds to fund construction and reducing the conventional financing requirement for new hotel supply. This mechanism has delivered a meaningful portion of the OECS’s new hotel capacity over the past decade and continues to function as the primary economic model for new resort development in smaller island economies.
Caribbean Leaders This Month
Guyana takes the June spotlight emphatically with oil production crossing 300,000 barrels per day and a Georgetown property market posting 35 percent year-on-year price appreciation — metrics that are without parallel in the contemporary Caribbean and reflect the transformative power of the Stabroek Block’s expanding output.
Jamaica delivered another strong month for tourism, reinforcing its position as the English-speaking Caribbean’s premier stopover destination. The north coast short-term rental market is performing strongly, with professional operators achieving gross yields that make the investment case increasingly compelling for international buyers.
Dominican Republic sustained its summer tourism strength with Punta Cana maintaining high occupancy and the Las Terrenas and Cabarete short-term rental markets attracting growing international investor interest driven by competitive pricing and strong yield performance.
Barbados continued its premium market performance, with the luxury villa segment operating at strong occupancy and the island’s strategic positioning as a high-value destination delivering above-Caribbean-average visitor expenditure metrics through the shoulder summer season.
Cayman Islands maintained its market leadership position in per-capita property values, with Seven Mile Beach continuing to transact at levels that reflect the island’s unique combination of financial services sector wealth concentration, constrained supply and ultra-premium demand.
St Lucia benefited from strong hotel bookings and the continued appeal of its CBI programme, with resort development investment supporting construction sector activity and the island’s reputation as a premium honeymoon and luxury travel destination driving villa rental demand.
Grenada saw its CBI-linked resort sector continue to generate construction activity and foreign investment inflows, while the island’s broader tourism performance tracked above 2022 levels, supported by its growing recognition in the North American and European premium travel segments.
Trinidad and Tobago maintained stable commercial property performance in Port of Spain, with the energy sector providing the economic backbone and the post-Carnival return to normal business activity supporting steady commercial property demand. Overall June regional performer: Guyana, for crossing the 300,000 barrels per day production threshold and sustaining a Georgetown property market appreciation trajectory that is transforming the country’s economic and social landscape.
Looking Ahead
July will test whether the Caribbean’s summer tourism strength can continue into the heart of the traditional low season. Early indicators from hotel booking platforms and airline load factors suggest it will, with North American school holiday demand providing a temporary boost through July and into early August. The US Federal Reserve’s July meeting is expected to deliver what many analysts are projecting as the final rate hike of the current cycle, a development that Caribbean central banks and mortgage market participants are watching with intense interest.
The Atlantic hurricane season will be entering its peak period through August and September, with NOAA’s above-normal forecast a continuing source of concern for property owners, insurers and tourism operators across the region. Caribbean destinations that have recently benefited from strong tourism performance are acutely aware that a direct hurricane hit — as experienced by the Bahamas in 2019 with Dorian, or by multiple Eastern Caribbean islands in the 2017 season — can reverse years of investment and brand-building momentum in a single catastrophic event.
The short-term rental market will continue to attract both investor interest and regulatory attention. Jamaica’s Tourism Minister has indicated that a framework for regulating short-term rentals on the island is under development, with a consultation process expected in the second half of 2023. How this framework balances investor interests — particularly those of the growing community of professional short-term rental operators on the north coast — against housing affordability concerns in communities where platform rentals are reducing available long-term residential supply will be a critical policy question for the Jamaican property market.
The Caribbean Property & Investment Review is published monthly and covers developments during the preceding calendar month. All factual statements reflect information publicly available at the time of publication.
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