coastal resilience

January and February 2020 delivered some of Jamaica’s strongest tourism numbers on record. Hotels were full, coastal construction was advancing, and the beach access debate was accelerating. Then, in March, the pandemic changed everything. This quarterly report covers Q1 2020 — the last season Jamaica’s coast operated as usual.

The third quarter of 2019 was dominated by two stories on Jamaica’s coast: the sargassum seaweed crisis that clogged north coast beaches through the summer tourism peak, and the near-miss of Hurricane Dorian, which devastated the Bahamas and put every Caribbean government on notice about their coastal vulnerability. Through it all, Jamaica’s beach access movement kept growing.

The devastating hurricane season of 2017 left Jamaica largely unscathed but its Caribbean neighbours in ruins, and the final quarter of the year was dominated by a regional reckoning with coastal resilience. In Jamaica, the questions Irma and Maria raised were not matched by any immediate changes to the development framework they exposed as inadequate.

The summer of 2017 delivered another mass bleaching event to Jamaica’s reefs, as sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean climbed above threshold for the second consecutive year. Combined with the ongoing sargassum season and a tourism peak that was straining the coast’s carrying capacity, Q3 2017 posed questions about the long-term sustainability of Jamaica’s reef-dependent tourism model.

Hurricane Matthew made landfall near Jamaica’s southwest tip on October 4, 2016, delivering its most damaging direct hurricane strike in years. The post-storm quarter combined damage assessment with the ongoing tourism peak season and raised new questions about coastal building standards, mangrove protection, and the resilience of communities that had been repeatedly rebuilt after storms.

The global mass coral bleaching event of 2016 was the most extensive in recorded history, and Jamaica’s reefs were among its victims. By the end of Q3 2016, large sections of the island’s monitored reef sites had experienced significant bleaching mortality, on top of decades of prior decline. The summer of 2016 represented a step-change in the trajectory of Jamaica’s coastal ecology.