Publication Date: 3 March 2016 | Coverage Period: 3 February – 2 March 2016
Morning Briefing
- Jamaica goes to the polls today, 3 March 2016, in a general election widely described as one of the closest in recent memory. Polling stations across the island opened this morning, and results are expected through the evening. As this edition goes to press, the outcome remains unknown.
- Trinidad Carnival 2016 on 8–9 February was a resounding success by most economic measures, with Port of Spain hotels reporting near-capacity occupancy and the Tourism Development Company estimating visitor expenditure above TT$900 million for the carnival fortnight.
- Oil prices showed tentative signs of stabilisation in late February, with WTI recovering from its January low of approximately $26 to trade around $32–34 per barrel — providing a marginal improvement in sentiment for T&T’s battered fiscal outlook.
- The IMF’s Article IV consultation with Jamaica, concluded in February, broadly endorsed the continued reform trajectory under the Extended Fund Facility, noting improvements in public debt dynamics and reserve adequacy — positive signals for Jamaica’s investment-grade credit aspirations.
- Short-term rental revenues across the Caribbean peaked during the Trinidad Carnival period and the broader February half-term window, with Jamaica, Barbados, and the Dominican Republic all reporting strong platform-enabled occupancy numbers.
- Caribbean citizenship by investment programmes — particularly those of St Kitts & Nevis and Antigua & Barbuda — reported continued strong application pipelines from Middle Eastern and Asian buyers seeking alternative residency options.
Jamaica Election Day: A Nation at the Polls
Today, 3 March 2016, is Jamaica election day, and as this edition goes to press the outcome remains entirely open. Polling stations across the island opened at 7 a.m. and will close at 5 p.m., with results from the Electoral Commission of Jamaica expected to trickle in through the evening. This publication does not speculate on electoral outcomes, but we can note the economic and property market context within which this election is taking place — context that will shape whatever administration takes office on 4 March.
Jamaica’s economy has been on an IMF-supported reform path since 2013, and both the governing People’s National Party led by Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and the opposition Jamaica Labour Party led by Andrew Holness have committed to maintaining the programme. This bipartisan consensus on fiscal discipline — unusual in Caribbean democratic politics — has contributed to meaningful improvements in Jamaica’s sovereign credit profile, with international bond spreads narrowing and investor sentiment improving over the past two years. The continuity of the IMF programme, regardless of tonight’s outcome, is widely expected.
For the property market, the most consequential near-term policy question is how aggressively the incoming administration will pursue the development pipeline in the Kingston waterfront, the Caymanas Economic Zone, and the tourism corridor along the north coast. Both parties have spoken positively about infrastructure investment, but their emphasis and sequencing differ. The JLP has flagged specific interest in accelerating Special Economic Zone designations to attract manufacturing and logistics investment, which could generate significant commercial property demand around Kingston and Spanish Town. The PNP has emphasised social housing provision through the NHT. Either way, the direction is broadly favourable for property market activity.
Institutional investors and international buyers with Jamaica exposure are watching today’s outcome closely. Market participants generally expect a brief post-election honeymoon period during which property transaction activity picks up, as buyers who have held back during the campaign period re-engage. The north coast tourism corridor, in particular, is expected to benefit from renewed developer confidence once political uncertainty is resolved.
Trinidad Carnival 2016: Property Lessons from the Season
The numbers from Trinidad Carnival 2016 are now in, and they tell a story of remarkable economic resilience. Despite the oil price shock bearing down on T&T’s public finances, the carnival economy — driven by diaspora visitor flows, international tourists, and domestic consumer spending — delivered one of its strongest performances in years. Hotel rooms across Port of Spain sold out weeks in advance, with peak-period nightly rates for well-located serviced apartments and private rentals reaching TT$2,500–3,000 per night. Boutique guesthouses in Woodbrook and St James — the traditional heartland of carnival street activity — were priced at comparable premiums.
For property investors in Trinidad, the carnival performance reinforces a thesis that has been building for several years: the short-term rental market in Port of Spain can deliver yields during the carnival fortnight that substantially offset holding costs for the remainder of the year. A well-managed two-bedroom apartment in Woodbrook, earning TT$25,000–30,000 during carnival week alone, has already covered a significant portion of its annual mortgage service. This logic is attracting a new class of investor — diaspora Trinidadians purchasing small residential units in Port of Spain not as primary residences but as yield-generating assets managed through platform-based rental channels.
The broader implication for Caribbean property markets is the growing importance of event-driven demand in underwriting residential investment cases. From Carnival in Trinidad to Jazz and Blues in Barbados to Reggae Sumfest in Jamaica, the region’s festival calendar creates predictable demand spikes that sophisticated investors can monetise. As Airbnb and competitor platforms deepen their penetration of Caribbean markets, the ability to capture these spikes is becoming democratised — no longer the exclusive preserve of licensed hoteliers.
Caribbean Investment Despite Oil Headwinds
The narrative of oil-driven Caribbean distress is real but incomplete. Outside of Trinidad & Tobago, most Caribbean economies are net oil importers, and the collapse of crude prices has been an unambiguous positive for their current account positions and consumer purchasing power. Lower fuel costs have reduced operating costs for airlines serving Caribbean routes, contributing to continued airlift expansion. The same lower energy prices that devastate T&T’s budget are putting more money in the pockets of American and Canadian travellers whose propensity to visit the Caribbean is the engine of the region’s tourism property market.
The Dominican Republic’s construction sector entered 2016 with strong momentum, with new resort, residential, and mixed-use projects in advanced stages of planning or construction across the north and east coasts. Foreign direct investment in the DR’s tourism and real estate sectors remained among the highest in the Caribbean by absolute dollar value. Jamaica’s north coast pipeline similarly includes several significant hotel-branded residence projects that are drawing pre-sale interest from North American buyers. Barbados, though fiscally constrained, continues to attract UK and European lifestyle buyers to its west coast, where the combination of political stability, common law property rights, and social infrastructure justifies premium pricing.
Caribbean Leaders This Month
Port of Spain carnival rental market — Short-term rental returns during the Carnival 2016 period set new benchmarks for yield-per-night in the Woodbrook and St James corridors, confirming the investment thesis for diaspora buyers targeting the festival rental economy.
Jamaica election anticipation — Both major political parties’ commitment to the IMF programme has kept institutional investor sentiment toward Jamaica broadly positive through the election period, with bond spreads holding at improved levels relative to two years ago.
Dominican Republic Cap Cana — The master-planned resort community near Punta Cana reported strong January and February villa pre-sales, with North American buyers dominating the buyer profile and average transaction values moving higher year-on-year.
St Kitts & Nevis CBI real estate — The designated real estate channel of the SKN Citizenship by Investment Programme attracted several substantial unit purchases during the coverage period, contributing to construction progress at Christophe Harbour and reinforcing the developer community’s confidence in the programme’s sustainability.
Barbados February tourism — The Jazz and Blues Festival and the broader February half-term window delivered strong hotel occupancies on the west and south coasts, helping Barbados maintain positive tourism momentum despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds.
Guyana Stabroek Block exploration — ExxonMobil’s continued exploration activity at the Stabroek Block maintained elevated demand for executive-grade rental accommodation in Georgetown, with limited new quality supply keeping occupancy rates and achieved rents at elevated levels.
Antigua Citizenship by Investment — Antigua & Barbuda’s CBI programme reported a strong application pipeline from Chinese and Middle Eastern nationals, with the National Development Fund and designated real estate channels both active, driving continued construction at several resort residential projects on the island’s western coast.
Overall regional performer: Port of Spain’s short-term rental economy claims this month’s top position, with carnival-driven revenues demonstrating that event-linked property investment can deliver exceptional short-period returns even against the backdrop of a challenging macroeconomic environment for Trinidad & Tobago more broadly.
Looking Ahead: March and the Post-Election Landscape
Within hours, Jamaica will have a new or renewed government, and the Caribbean property market will be watching for early signals from whichever administration takes office. The most important near-term indicator will be the pace at which the new government engages with the NHT on affordable housing targets, and how quickly it moves to clear the backlog of planning applications for tourism and commercial developments that accumulated during the pre-election period.
For Trinidad & Tobago, the coming weeks will bring further clarity on the government’s fiscal adjustment path. The mid-year budget review, expected in the April–May window, will test whether the Rowley administration’s revenue measures and expenditure controls are tracking to plan. Any slippage relative to targets will reignite market concern about the pace of the T&T economy’s adjustment. Conversely, a credible mid-year statement could begin to restore confidence in the Port of Spain property market among the corporate and executive buyer segments that have been most cautious.
The broader Caribbean high season is progressing well, with tourism arrivals data for January and February tracking above prior-year levels in Jamaica, the DR, and the Eastern Caribbean. That positive trend, if sustained through April, will underpin hotel investment valuations and support continued momentum in the hospitality-linked residential sector. The near-term outlook for tourism-driven Caribbean property markets remains constructive.
The Caribbean Property & Investment Review is published monthly. Edition 125 covers the period 3 February to 2 March 2016. All market data cited reflects information available at the time of publication. The Jamaica election result was not known at press time. This publication does not constitute investment advice.
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