More Than 100 Churches Closing a Year: Japan Faces Its “2030 Problem”

• Half of Japan’s Protestant churches may close within five years, OMF reported
• More than 100 churches close each year in Japan
• Churches grew tenfold from 1945 to 1995 while Christians only doubled
• In 2017, 47 per cent of Japanese pastors were over 70

Japan’s Protestant churches face what leaders call the “2030 problem”, with half of them possibly closing within five years, OMF UK reported on June 19, 2025, in an article by Reuben Grace.

More than 100 churches already close in Japan each year, and the number is expected to rise. The number of Christians fell by 35 per cent between 2019 and 2024, and by 2030 about 90 per cent of Japanese Christians will be over 50. Between 1945 and 1995 the number of churches grew tenfold while the number of Christians only doubled, leaving about five times more churches per attendee and a large stock of buildings to maintain.

The pastor shortage is severe. In 2017, 47 per cent of Japanese pastors were over 70. Bible colleges produce about 120 new pastors a year, meeting only 2 to 3 per cent of the need for the 3,000 to 5,000 churches without pastoral leadership. One pastor said: “The way we have been doing [ministry], we are killing ourselves, and we’re killing the church, and we’re killing the pastors.”

The coming closures will leave many church buildings without congregations to use them.

Jamaica has a very large number of churches for its size, and some rural congregations are shrinking as members age or move away. Japan’s experience is a warning to plan early. Denominations can merge small congregations, share buildings and decide what to do with surplus sites, whether to sell, lease or convert them, before buildings fall into disrepair.

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