Published: 2 January 2017 | Jamaica Homes News
Key Takeaways
- Hurricane Matthew devastates southern Jamaica — October 3–4: Hurricane Matthew — a Category 4 storm on approach, weakening slightly to Category 3–4 as it passed — made its closest approach to Jamaica on 3–4 October 2016, producing catastrophic flooding, mudslides, and infrastructure damage across St. Elizabeth, Manchester, Clarendon, and the southwest parishes. Preliminary damage assessments put the agricultural sector’s losses in the hundreds of millions of US dollars, with road infrastructure, bridges, and rural community access severely impacted. The diaspora’s response was immediate: remittance flows from the US and UK spiked in the days following the storm, Jamaica Diaspora Advisory Board members co-ordinated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the National Disaster Risk Management Council, and community fundraising in New York, South Florida, Toronto, and London raised substantial emergency support funds.
- Trump wins: Jamaican diaspora communities in shock: Donald Trump’s election victory on 8 November 2016 — defeating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote — produced reactions of shock, disbelief, and acute fear across Jamaican-American communities in New York, South Florida, Atlanta, and beyond. The Trump campaign’s immigration rhetoric — proposals for mass deportation, end of DACA, construction of a southern border wall, and a broadly restrictionist posture — had been followed closely by Caribbean community leaders for eighteen months, and the result produced an immediate response of community information campaigns, legal preparedness sessions, and the first serious mobilisation toward naturalisation by permanent residents who had deferred citizenship applications.
- 7th Biennial six-month implementation: significant milestones reached: Six months after the 7th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference of June 2016, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade published its first formal six-month implementation assessment, documenting progress across the conference’s working group commitments in areas including trade and investment facilitation, diaspora philanthropy frameworks, health sector partnerships, and educational linkage programmes. The assessment acknowledged that implementation momentum had been complicated by Hurricane Matthew’s diversion of government attention and resources in October, but confirmed that the advisory committee structures established at the 7th Biennial were functioning and that the road to the 8th Biennial in June 2018 was taking shape.
- Brexit: the British-Jamaican community’s autumn position: As the UK government prepared to trigger Article 50 in Q1 2017 following the High Court’s November ruling that parliamentary approval was required before notification, the British-Jamaican community continued to absorb the referendum result’s practical implications. The pound sterling’s dramatic post-referendum depreciation — down some 15–18 per cent against the US dollar and Jamaican dollar since June — had materially reduced the sterling value of UK remittances to Jamaica, and community discussions of return migration timelines reflected both the economic uncertainty and the identity dimensions of the Brexit vote for communities whose presence in Britain predated the referendum by generations.
- Christmas remittances: a resilient year’s close: Despite the year’s political turbulence — Brexit, Trump, Matthew, and the continuing uncertainty of the JLP’s first year in office — Bank of Jamaica data pointed to 2016 closing as a strongly positive remittance year, with preliminary estimates suggesting total annual remittances of approximately US$2.4 billion, representing modest year-on-year growth. The Christmas period’s traditional remittance surge — reflecting gift-giving, family support, and community solidarity — was reinforced by the emergency flows following Hurricane Matthew that had elevated Q4 baselines across the community calendar.
- Jamaica economy and PM Holness’s first year: Prime Minister Holness’s JLP government completed its first full calendar year in office having navigated Hurricane Matthew’s damage alongside the continuing IMF economic reform programme. The tourism sector had performed well despite the storm’s disruption of some southern and western resort access, and unemployment had continued its gradual decline from the high levels of the early part of the decade. Returnee interest in Jamaica’s improving economic stability, and diaspora investment in property and business ventures, were positive indicators as the year closed.
Introduction: A Quarter of Shocks
The fourth quarter of 2016 delivered two seismic shocks in quick succession: Hurricane Matthew’s assault on Jamaica in the first days of October, and Donald Trump’s election to the American presidency on 8 November. The quarter that had opened on a note of cautious optimism following the 7th Biennial’s June conference and the Holness government’s policy programme ended with the diaspora’s communities recalibrating around a transformed political landscape in both major host countries. This update draws on Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Bank of Jamaica, PIOJ, MFAFT, ODPEM, and Caribbean diaspora media through 31 December 2016.
Hurricane Matthew: Damage, Diaspora, and Recovery
Hurricane Matthew had already devastated Haiti — where the death toll would ultimately exceed 500 — before its passage over Jamaica on 3–4 October 2016, but Jamaica’s damage was nonetheless severe. The storm’s track brought powerful rainfall and sustained winds across the island’s southern parishes, with St. Elizabeth’s agricultural heartland particularly hard hit. Rivers flooded their banks, roads were rendered impassable by landslides, bridges were compromised, and entire rural communities were temporarily isolated. The agricultural damage — to banana, sugar, vegetable, and livestock production — was assessed in the hundreds of millions of US dollars, representing a significant setback to small farmers whose livelihoods are the foundation of several southern parishes’ economies.
The diaspora’s response was swift and substantial. Remittance transfer volumes — tracked by BOJ and the major remittance operators — showed clear spikes in the days immediately following the storm, as diaspora family members transferred emergency support funds to relatives across the affected areas. Community organisations in New York, South Florida, Toronto, and London mobilised fundraising campaigns, collecting goods and financial contributions for air and sea freight to Jamaica. The Jamaica Diaspora Advisory Board worked with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management to channel diaspora resources toward the communities with greatest need.
As of 31 December 2016, the recovery process was ongoing. Road and bridge repair works were underway across the worst-affected parishes, agricultural replanting programmes were being organised, and the government’s National Recovery Plan was mobilising multilateral and bilateral support. The diaspora’s Matthew response was, in many ways, the clearest demonstration yet of the practical value of the Biennial conference structure and the advisory committee networks: the channels for diaspora-to-government co-ordination built at the 7th Biennial proved their worth under real emergency conditions within months of the conference’s close.
The Trump Election: Community Reaction and Preparedness
The outcome of the 8 November US presidential election was met with a spectrum of reactions across Jamaican-American communities, but the dominant notes were shock, fear, and — rapidly — purposeful mobilisation. Donald Trump’s Electoral College victory, despite his loss of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly three million votes, represented the realisation of an outcome that Caribbean community leaders had publicly stated they were preparing for but privately considered unlikely. The Trump campaign’s eighteen months of immigration rhetoric had been tracked carefully in Caribbean community media and leadership councils; his victory instantly transformed that rhetoric into prospective policy.
Community organisations’ responses began in the days after the election. Know Your Rights information sessions were convened in church halls, community centres, and school auditoriums across the New York metropolitan area, South Florida, and Atlanta. Caribbean-American community newspapers ran special editions covering immigration rights, the distinction between documented and undocumented status, the rights of US-citizen children of undocumented parents, and guidance on DACA — which, as of 8 November, remained in full legal force and whose continuation was a stated community priority. Legal aid organisations reported significant increases in consultations from community members seeking to assess their individual situations.
The longer-term political response — voter registration, naturalisation campaigns, and community advocacy — also accelerated visibly in the weeks following the election. Jamaican-American permanent residents who had been eligible for naturalisation but had delayed the application process began moving toward it in significant numbers, as the community’s recognition that US citizenship was the most complete legal protection available in the new political environment translated into concrete action. Caribbean community advocacy organisations pressed the incoming administration to maintain DACA and the enforcement priority framework, while preparing the community for the possibility that both would be rescinded.
Brexit: The British-Jamaican Autumn
The UK’s Brexit process deepened significantly through Q4 2016, with the High Court’s November ruling that the government must seek parliamentary approval before triggering Article 50 adding a constitutional dimension to the already complex political process. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government appealed the ruling to the Supreme Court, whose January 2017 decision was awaited as the quarter closed. The government’s stated intention to trigger Article 50 in Q1 2017 remained intact regardless of the parliamentary process, with May’s government committed to a March 2017 notification date.
For British-Jamaican communities, the pound sterling’s sustained post-referendum depreciation — which had brought the GBP/USD rate from approximately $1.48 before the referendum to around $1.22–1.25 through Q4 2016 — was producing a material reduction in the sterling value of UK-sourced remittances to Jamaica. A British-Jamaican sender maintaining the same sterling remittance amount was delivering 15–18 per cent fewer Jamaican dollars than in mid-2016. The depreciation effect on remittance purchasing power was a concrete Brexit consequence felt in Jamaican households months before the formal withdrawal process had even begun.
7th Biennial: Six Months On
The 7th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference of June 2016 had set an ambitious agenda across its working group sessions, and the six-month mark provided a natural assessment point. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade’s implementation review acknowledged that Hurricane Matthew had diverted significant government attention and resources in October, and that the Trump election result required the ministry’s diaspora engagement teams to respond to community concerns in real time during November and December. Nonetheless, the review confirmed that working group commitments in trade facilitation, diaspora philanthropy, and educational exchange were advancing through the advisory committee structures established at the conference.
The 8th Biennial, targeted for June 2018, was now eighteen months out. The planning process would need to address the significantly changed political context in both major diaspora host countries: a Trump administration in the US, Brexit in the UK, and diaspora communities that were simultaneously more anxious and more engaged than at any point since the early years of large-scale Caribbean migration. The 7th Biennial’s community engagement commitments — digital platforms, returnee support infrastructure, investment facilitation — took on particular urgency given the new context.
Remittances and Jamaica’s Economic Year
Preliminary Bank of Jamaica data suggested that 2016 would close as a positive remittance year, with total annual flows estimated at approximately US$2.4 billion — growth from 2015’s approximately US$2.3 billion. The year’s trajectory had been shaped by three distinct dynamics: the first half’s steady growth from the US dollar’s sustained strength and Jamaican diaspora employment stability; Hurricane Matthew’s emergency spike in Q4; and the uncertainty introduced by the Trump election regarding the future of the remittance-sending community’s economic security. Christmas remittances, traditionally the year’s highest month, closed the year on a strong note.
Outlook for 2017
The first quarter of 2017 will see the Trump administration’s immigration executive orders take shape, the UK Supreme Court’s Brexit ruling, Article 50’s anticipated triggering in March, and Jamaica’s continuing Matthew recovery. The diaspora begins 2017 more organised, more anxious, and more politically engaged than at any point in recent memory. Hurricane Matthew’s emergency demonstrated the diaspora’s capacity to mobilise quickly when Jamaica needs it; the Trump election result is now mobilising that same capacity in service of the diaspora’s own community protection. We report next from 2 April 2017.
This Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora and Returnee Update is researched and published by Jamaica Homes News. Sources consulted include the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Nationwide News Network, RJR News, Caribbean National Weekly, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, ODPEM, and PICA. All figures and developments are accurate as of the publication date, 2 January 2017.
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