Trump Takes Power, Brexit Triggers Article 50, Westminster Is Attacked and Venezuela’s Crisis Deepens

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 April 2017 | Reporting Period: 3 January – 2 April 2017

Quarterly Briefing

• Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States on January 20; his executive orders on immigration, the travel ban and trade policy begin reshaping American engagement with the world within days.
• The United Kingdom formally triggers Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on March 29, beginning the two-year negotiation period for Britain’s departure from the EU.
• A vehicle and knife attack on Westminster Bridge and inside the Houses of Parliament on March 22 kills five people including a police officer, in the first major Islamist terrorist attack in London in twelve years.
• Venezuela’s Supreme Court attempts to dissolve the opposition-controlled National Assembly on March 29; it reverses course within days after domestic and international pressure, but the constitutional crisis intensifies.
• North Korean agents assassinate Kim Jong-un’s half-brother Kim Jong-nam using VX nerve agent at Kuala Lumpur airport on February 13, demonstrating the regime’s willingness to use chemical weapons abroad.
• Colombia’s revised peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas is formally endorsed by Congress in November 2016; implementation of the deal proceeds through the first quarter of 2017.

Prologue: A New American Administration and Its Consequences

The first quarter of 2017 was, in many respects, defined by a single political fact: a new American administration had taken office with a philosophy of international engagement that diverged sharply from the post-war consensus its predecessors had maintained. Donald Trump’s inauguration speech spoke of “American carnage” and “America First”; his first weeks brought executive orders on immigration that were blocked by federal courts, a travel ban targeting seven Muslim-majority countries, a disavowal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and signals of scepticism toward NATO and the European Union. For the Caribbean, which depends on the United States for tourism, remittances, security cooperation and access to capital, the transition to the Trump administration was consequential in ways that were becoming clearer with each week. Brexit’s formal triggering added a second major structural disruption to the international environment. And Venezuela’s Maduro government appeared to be attempting to complete its transition from elected autocracy to outright dictatorship.

The Trump Administration: First Quarter

The Women’s March on January 21 — the day after Trump’s inauguration — drew an estimated three to five million participants in the United States and international solidarity marches in cities worldwide, including Kingston. Within days, the new administration had signed executive orders on immigration enforcement, a temporary travel ban on nationals of seven Muslim-majority countries and a promise to build a wall on the Mexican border. Federal courts blocked the travel ban; the administration revised it; legal challenges continued. The administration withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The White House sent contradictory signals on multiple policy fronts — NATO, Russia, China, trade — in ways that created uncertainty among allies and trading partners globally.

For Jamaica and the Caribbean diaspora community in the United States, Trump’s immigration agenda created immediate anxiety. Hundreds of thousands of Caribbean nationals in the United States had uncertain immigration status: Temporary Protected Status holders, DACA recipients, long-term undocumented residents whose presence had been tolerated for decades. The administration’s signals of more aggressive enforcement raised real fears for diaspora families and, by extension, for the remittance flows on which Caribbean households depended.

Brexit: Article 50 Triggered

Prime Minister Theresa May formally notified the European Union of the United Kingdom’s intention to leave by triggering Article 50 on 29 March 2017, beginning a two-year negotiating clock. The negotiations would cover the terms of departure — citizens’ rights, financial obligations, the Irish border — and potentially lay the framework for a future trade relationship. May had set out her vision in January: the UK would leave the single market and customs union, accepting reduced market access in exchange for control of immigration policy. The Conservatives held a substantial parliamentary majority and May was expected to call a general election to strengthen her mandate for negotiations.

For Jamaica, Brexit’s formal start meant that the questions about post-Brexit arrangements — trade access, visa regimes, the status of the Jamaican community in Britain — were now being actively negotiated rather than theoretically anticipated. Jamaica’s government engaged its UK counterpart and CARIFORUM institutions on the need to preserve trade preferences and protect Caribbean diaspora rights through the transition.

Westminster Bridge and Venezuelan Autocracy

On 22 March 2017, a man drove a rented car into pedestrians crossing Westminster Bridge in London, killing four, before crashing the vehicle and killing a police officer with a knife outside the Houses of Parliament. The attacker was shot dead by police. The attack came at almost the precise moment the British government was processing Article 50’s imminent triggering. ISIS claimed the attack; it was the deadliest domestic terrorist incident in Britain since the 7 July 2005 bombings. The ease with which a vehicle could be weaponised against a crowd in the heart of a democracy reinforced a threat profile that had been demonstrated in Nice, Berlin and elsewhere.

In Venezuela, President Maduro’s government reached a new low in democratic governance when the government-controlled Supreme Court issued rulings on 29 March that stripped the opposition-controlled National Assembly of its powers and assumed legislative functions itself. The move was widely condemned as a constitutional coup. Facing intense domestic protests and international pressure — including from the Organisation of American States and CARICOM — the Supreme Court reversed the rulings within days, but the signal of intent was unmistakable. Venezuela’s political crisis was accelerating toward a confrontation between the government and the opposition that the PETROCARIBE arrangement’s diminishing reserves could no longer cushion.

Looking Ahead

The Trump administration’s agenda on immigration, trade and foreign policy will continue to generate consequences for the Caribbean through the remainder of 2017 and beyond. Brexit negotiations begin in earnest; the two-year timeline is short for resolving complex arrangements that have governed European trade for decades. Venezuela’s constitutional crisis appears likely to escalate: Maduro has signalled he will not accept constraints from an opposition assembly, and the opposition has signalled it will not accept de facto authoritarian rule. North Korea’s weapons programme is advancing faster than international responses can contain it. And the ISIS caliphate, while losing territory rapidly in Iraq and Syria, continues to inspire attacks in Western cities. Jamaica enters the second quarter of 2017 with its own economic programme continuing to perform, but in an international environment of unusual and compounding uncertainty.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.

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