The Iraq War Begins on March 20, Coalition Forces Are Advancing on Baghdad, the Space Shuttle Columbia Disintegrates on Re-Entry and North Korea Withdraws From the NPT

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 April 2003 | Reporting Period: 3 January – 2 April 2003

Quarterly Briefing

• A US-led coalition of forces from the United States, United Kingdom, Australia and Poland invades Iraq on March 20, launching Operation Iraqi Freedom; the stated justification is Saddam Hussein’s alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction and defiance of UN resolutions; UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and major European allies France, Germany and Russia oppose the invasion as lacking Security Council authorisation; as this edition goes to press, coalition ground forces are advancing rapidly toward Baghdad and have encountered stronger resistance than some pre-war assessments predicted.
• Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrates during re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere on February 1, killing all seven crew members including the first Israeli astronaut, Ilan Ramon; the disaster occurs over Texas and Louisiana as a result of damage to the thermal protection system sustained during launch on January 16 when a piece of foam insulation struck the orbiter’s leading edge; NASA grounds the shuttle programme; the loss of Columbia is the second fatal shuttle disaster after Challenger in 1986 and deals a severe blow to human spaceflight operations.
• North Korea announces on January 10 its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the first country ever to do so; the announcement follows months of escalating tension after the US confronted Pyongyang in October 2002 with evidence of a clandestine uranium enrichment programme; North Korea expels IAEA inspectors from the Yongbyon nuclear facility; the withdrawal removes the last formal constraint on North Korea’s nuclear weapons development and presents the incoming Bush administration’s second term with its most complex proliferation challenge alongside Iraq.
• The international debate over Iraq reaches its most acrimonious point in February and March; UN weapons inspector Hans Blix reports to the Security Council on February 14 that inspectors have found no weapons of mass destruction but need more time; US Secretary of State Colin Powell presents intelligence to the Security Council on February 5 alleging an active WMD programme; France and Russia threaten to veto any resolution authorising force; the US and UK proceed without a second resolution, fracturing the Western alliance more severely than at any point since Suez.
• The Iraq War has an immediate impact on oil prices, which spike in the weeks before the invasion as markets price in the risk of regional disruption; Brent crude rises above $33 per barrel in January and February before falling back as coalition forces advance rapidly; the Caribbean’s dependence on imported oil means that even temporary price spikes translate directly into higher energy import costs and fiscal pressure on government budgets.
• Haiti continues to face political instability; President Jean-Bertrand Aristide’s government confronts sustained opposition from a coalition that includes former military officers and political opponents; the United States and France have withdrawn support from Aristide; international mediation efforts involving CARICOM and the OAS have failed to produce a political settlement; armed opposition groups are forming in the countryside; the situation is increasingly volatile.

Prologue: The War That Divided the West

The Iraq War that began on March 20 has fractured the Western alliance more completely than any event since the Suez Crisis of 1956. France’s willingness to veto Security Council authorisation, Germany’s categorical refusal to participate, Russia’s sustained diplomatic opposition — these were not the positions of adversarial states but of long-standing US allies. The division was not merely procedural; it reflected a genuine disagreement about the use of preventive military force, the interpretation of intelligence on weapons of mass destruction and the consequences of regime change in a society whose post-war governance presented challenges that pre-war planning had not adequately addressed. As coalition forces close on Baghdad, those consequences remain entirely undetermined.

The War’s Opening Phase and the Caribbean’s Position

The coalition’s ground assault began in the early hours of March 20 from Kuwait; the air campaign, designated “Shock and Awe,” struck Baghdad simultaneously. The British campaign in the south focused on Basra, Iraq’s second city and predominantly Shia; the American advance, led by armoured columns of the 3rd Infantry Division, moved through the desert toward Baghdad at a pace that surprised military analysts. Resistance at Nasiriyah, Najaf and Karbala was stiffer than initial optimism had suggested; the supply lines extending from Kuwait became a vulnerability. As of April 2 — the last day of this reporting period — coalition forces are on the outskirts of Baghdad; the battle for the capital appears imminent.

Caribbean governments, almost uniformly, had expressed reservations about the invasion through their support for the UN process and their discomfort with preventive war as a doctrine. CARICOM’s preference for diplomatic resolution reflected both principle and the practical reality that small states depended on international law as their primary protection against the arbitrary use of power by larger ones. The oil price spike in the weeks preceding the invasion — and the market uncertainty that attended the war’s opening phase — translated immediately into fiscal pressure on Caribbean governments whose energy import bills were denominated in US dollars.

Columbia and North Korea

The destruction of Space Shuttle Columbia on February 1 occurred in a news environment already saturated with the build-up to the Iraq War; the disaster received the attention it deserved but was quickly superseded. The investigation that will follow — the Columbia Accident Investigation Board is now convened — will, like the Challenger inquiry, probe the organisational culture that allowed known risks to go unaddressed. North Korea’s NPT withdrawal on January 10 received far less public attention than Iraq, yet the proliferation risk it presented was more immediate: unlike Iraq, North Korea was known to possess nuclear material and the infrastructure to process it into weapons. The Bush administration’s decision to prioritise Iraq over North Korea was a geopolitical choice whose consequences would take years to become fully apparent.

Looking Ahead

The battle for Baghdad is imminent as this edition is published; its outcome will determine whether the war ends quickly or enters a prolonged urban phase. The post-war challenge — governing 25 million people in three distinct communities with no functioning state institutions — will define the Iraq story for years regardless of how the military campaign concludes. Haiti’s political crisis is deteriorating toward the point where international intervention may become necessary; CARICOM governments are monitoring it closely. North Korea’s nuclear programme, now unconstrained by the NPT framework, is a long-term threat that will not wait indefinitely for diplomatic attention.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.

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