Irma and Maria Devastate the Caribbean, North Korea Tests a Hydrogen Bomb and Mosul Falls to the Coalition

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 October 2017 | Reporting Period: 3 July – 2 October 2017

Quarterly Briefing

• Hurricane Irma, a Category 5 storm, devastates Barbuda, the British and US Virgin Islands and Sint Maarten on September 5–6, destroying 95 per cent of structures on Barbuda and causing catastrophic damage across the northeastern Caribbean.
• Hurricane Maria, also a Category 5 storm, makes direct hits on Dominica on September 18 and Puerto Rico on September 20, reducing Dominica to rubble and knocking out Puerto Rico’s electricity grid.
• North Korea conducts its most powerful nuclear test on September 3, widely assessed as a hydrogen bomb; it also tests intercontinental ballistic missiles on July 4 and July 28, demonstrating credible range to strike the continental United States.
• The Iraqi city of Mosul is declared liberated from ISIS on July 10 after a nine-month battle that destroyed much of the city’s western half.
• Catalonia holds an independence referendum on October 1; Spanish police attempt to prevent voting, injuring hundreds; the Catalan government claims 90 per cent voted for independence.
• Venezuela’s President Maduro installs a pro-government constituent assembly in July, bypassing the opposition-controlled National Assembly and effectively suspending parliamentary democracy.

Prologue: The Season the Caribbean Was Struck Twice

The third quarter of 2017 will be remembered in the Caribbean for a long time. Two major hurricanes struck the region within a fortnight, each at maximum intensity, and each choosing targets that had not historically been the Atlantic basin’s most frequent hurricane destinations. Irma, which meteorologists called one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever measured, reduced the island of Barbuda to uninhabitable rubble and ravaged the Virgin Islands. Maria, two weeks later, struck Dominica with almost incomprehensible force before crossing directly over Puerto Rico in a blow whose consequences — still unfolding as this edition is published — will take years to fully assess. Beyond the Caribbean, the quarter saw North Korea demonstrate that it now possessed thermonuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them to American cities. Mosul’s liberation marked the effective end of the ISIS caliphate as a territorial entity. And Catalonia tested the Spanish constitutional settlement in ways that have no clear resolution.

Irma: The Strongest Atlantic Hurricane in Recorded History

Hurricane Irma reached Category 5 intensity with sustained winds of 185 miles per hour — the highest ever recorded for an Atlantic storm at the time — before striking the Leeward Islands on 5–6 September. Barbuda was essentially destroyed: the 1,800-person island suffered damage to 95 per cent of its structures, and its entire population was evacuated to Antigua — the first time in three hundred years of habitation that Barbuda had been completely emptied. The island remained uninhabitable as this edition goes to press. The British and US Virgin Islands, Sint Maarten and Cuba all suffered severe damage. Irma then crossed over Florida as a Category 4 storm. The destruction in the northeastern Caribbean required months of international assistance to begin addressing; Barbuda’s complete rebuild would take years.

For Jamaica, Irma passed to the north and spared the island its worst effects — a narrow escape given the storm’s intensity. But the destruction of CARICOM neighbours created immediate practical demands: Jamaica contributed to regional emergency assistance and found itself hosting media attention on Caribbean climate vulnerability that would continue to grow. The CARICOM framework for disaster response was activated; the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility paid out claims to affected territories.

Maria: Dominica Destroyed, Puerto Rico in Crisis

Hurricane Maria struck Dominica on 18 September as a Category 5 storm, killing at least 27 people on an island of 73,000 and destroying an estimated 90 per cent of the island’s buildings. Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit described it as the worst disaster in Dominica’s history. Two days later, on 20 September, Maria crossed Puerto Rico directly from southeast to northwest as a high-end Category 4 storm with winds of 155 miles per hour. The storm destroyed much of the island’s electrical infrastructure, damaged or destroyed a large fraction of its buildings, caused catastrophic flooding and triggered a humanitarian crisis affecting 3.3 million American citizens. As of 3 October, approximately 95 per cent of Puerto Rico is still without power. The official death toll stands at 16, a figure that independent assessors regard as a severe undercount. The scale of the disaster and the federal government’s response are already generating intense political controversy.

For Jamaica and the wider Caribbean, the Maria catastrophe demonstrated the region’s acute vulnerability to major hurricanes in a way that abstract statistics never could. Dominica — an independent nation with limited fiscal capacity and no external support system comparable to what US territories receive — faced a literally existential rebuilding challenge. The case for Caribbean climate finance, insurance mechanisms and debt relief linked to climate vulnerability was made more forcefully by Maria than by any diplomatic argument.

North Korea: A Hydrogen Bomb and ICBMs

North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test on 3 September 2017, producing a seismic signature consistent with a yield of approximately 100-150 kilotons — orders of magnitude more powerful than its previous tests and consistent with a thermonuclear device. The test followed intercontinental ballistic missile tests on 4 July and 28 July that demonstrated range capable of reaching the US mainland. The cumulative effect was to establish North Korea as a de facto nuclear-armed state with credible long-range delivery capability. President Trump warned of “fire and fury” at a North Korean attack; his UN General Assembly speech in September threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea if America or its allies were threatened. The UN Security Council imposed additional sanctions in response to the tests. China, while supporting sanctions, warned against military action. The situation represented the most acute nuclear risk on the Korean Peninsula since the Korean War.

Mosul Liberated; Catalonia’s Challenge

The liberation of Mosul on 10 July after nine months of brutal urban fighting marked the effective collapse of ISIS’s territorial caliphate in Iraq. The western half of the city was largely destroyed in the fighting; the civilian death toll was estimated in the thousands. ISIS retained territory in Syria around Deir ez-Zor and in pockets elsewhere, but the loss of Mosul — the city where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had proclaimed the caliphate in June 2014 — was symbolically and strategically decisive.

In Europe, Catalonia’s independence referendum on 1 October proceeded despite the Spanish government’s declaration that it was illegal. Spanish police attempted to prevent voting, seizing ballot boxes and injuring hundreds of voters. The Catalan government reported turnout of 43 per cent with 90 per cent in favour of independence. Spain’s constitutional crisis was immediately unresolved as of this edition’s publication; Madrid threatened direct rule under Article 155 while Catalan President Puigdemont prepared to declare independence.

Looking Ahead

Puerto Rico’s electricity recovery will dominate Caribbean attention for months. Dominica faces a rebuild that will require sustained international assistance. North Korea’s nuclear programme has crossed thresholds that make the strategic calculus more dangerous than at any point in living memory. Catalonia’s unilateral path toward independence tests European constitutional arrangements. And Venezuela’s Maduro government, having bypassed its own constitution to install a loyal assembly, has eliminated the last institutional check on executive power. For Jamaica, the immediate priorities are supporting regional recovery and managing the oil price implications of a global environment that continues to generate risk at an accelerating pace.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.

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