Sudan’s Revolution, Sri Lanka’s Easter Bombings, Hong Kong Erupts and Iran Edges Toward Confrontation

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 July 2019 | Reporting Period: 3 April – 2 July 2019

Quarterly Briefing

• Sudan’s army removes President Omar al-Bashir on April 11 after months of popular protests; the subsequent military crackdown on civilian demonstrators on June 3 kills over 100 in Khartoum.
• Coordinated terrorist bombings on Easter Sunday, April 21, kill 269 people at churches and luxury hotels in Sri Lanka; the attack is claimed by an ISIS-affiliated group.
• US-Iran tensions sharpen dramatically: the US deploys a carrier strike group to the Gulf, tankers are attacked in the Gulf of Oman, Iran shoots down a US surveillance drone, and President Trump calls off a retaliatory strike at the last minute.
• Mass protests erupt in Hong Kong from June 9 over a proposed extradition bill; a march of approximately two million people on June 16 is the largest in Hong Kong’s history.
• Venezuela’s Juan Guaidó launches a military uprising on April 30 in an attempt to end President Maduro’s rule; the attempt fails and Maduro remains in power.
• Theresa May announces her resignation as UK Prime Minister on May 24; Boris Johnson emerges as the frontrunner to succeed her on a platform of delivering Brexit by October 31.

Prologue: A Season of Uprisings

The second quarter of 2019 was marked by popular movements, military confrontations and terrorist attacks that cumulatively illustrated how fragile the foundations of order had become across multiple continents simultaneously. In North Africa, a long-ruling autocrat fell to street pressure before his military successors turned their weapons on the very people whose protests had cleared their path to power. In Asia, Sri Lanka’s tourism economy was shattered in a morning. In the Gulf, the geometry of a US-Iran war was drawn and then, for the moment, put away. And in Hong Kong, the opening salvoes of what will likely prove a defining struggle over the territory’s political future were fired. For Jamaica and the Caribbean, the quarter delivered geopolitical shocks that affect energy costs, regional security, tourism competitor dynamics and the broader investment confidence that drives property markets.

Sudan: Revolution Betrayed?

Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled Sudan since his 1989 coup and was under International Criminal Court indictment for genocide in Darfur, was removed by Sudan’s military on 11 April following months of mass protests that began in December 2018. The military established a Transitional Sovereignty Council and promised elections — but civilian organisations, grouped in the Forces of Freedom and Change coalition, demanded a civilian-led transition. Sit-in protests outside the military headquarters in Khartoum continued for weeks. On 3 June, security forces violently dispersed the sit-in: over 100 people were killed in what the protesters called a massacre. The internet was cut; international condemnation was swift. Under intense pressure, the military and civilian groups continued negotiating a constitutional arrangement through June. As of this writing on 3 July, discussions on a transition framework are ongoing.

Sri Lanka: Tourism’s Worst Morning

On Easter Sunday, 21 April 2019, eight coordinated suicide bombings struck three churches and three luxury hotels in Sri Lanka, killing 269 people and injuring over 500. The attacks targeted the Cinnamon Grand, Shangri-La and Kingsbury hotels in Colombo — precisely the kind of high-end international accommodation that forms the commercial core of any tourism-dependent economy. An ISIS-affiliated local group, National Thowheed Jamath, claimed responsibility. Sri Lanka’s government faced severe criticism for failing to act on intelligence warnings received before the attacks.

The Sri Lanka attack was immediately relevant to Jamaica and Caribbean tourism professionals. It demonstrated, with devastating clarity, how a single day of violence could collapse visitor arrivals to a destination that had been posting strong growth: Sri Lanka’s tourist arrivals fell by over 70 per cent in the months following the bombings. Security protocols at Caribbean hotels and resorts were reviewed in the attack’s aftermath, as industry bodies noted that luxury accommodation concentrations present specific security challenges.

US-Iran: The Gulf on the Edge

The United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — in May 2018, and since then has pursued a campaign of maximum economic pressure through sanctions designed to eliminate Iranian oil exports. Iran’s economy has contracted sharply and its currency has collapsed. On 8 May 2019, Iran announced it would no longer abide by limits on its uranium enrichment, and threatened to resume full enrichment activities if Europe did not provide relief from US sanctions within 60 days. The US deployed the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Gulf in response to what it described as credible Iranian threats.

Through May and June, the situation continued to escalate. Four tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman on May 12 and a Norwegian and Japanese-owned tanker on June 13; the US attributed both sets of attacks to Iran. Iran shot down a US RQ-4A Global Hawk surveillance drone on June 20, claiming it violated Iranian airspace; the US disputed this. President Trump ordered retaliatory strikes, then called them off minutes before launch, stating the potential casualties — estimated at 150 Iranians — were disproportionate to the drone loss. The episode left the US-Iran confrontation at its most acute point since the 1979-1981 hostage crisis, with both sides apparently unwilling to trigger full-scale war but also unable to de-escalate. Oil prices rose through the quarter on the risk premium, adding to Caribbean fuel import costs.

Hong Kong: The City Finds Its Voice

The Hong Kong government’s proposed extradition legislation, which would have permitted transfers of criminal suspects to mainland China, triggered what has become one of the largest protest movements in the territory’s history. Protests on June 9 drew an estimated one million people. On June 12, demonstrators surrounded and occupied areas around the Legislative Council building; police deployed tear gas and rubber bullets. On June 16, an estimated two million people — a figure that would represent more than a quarter of Hong Kong’s entire population — marched through the city, the largest demonstration in Hong Kong’s history. Chief Executive Carrie Lam suspended the bill’s progress on June 15 but stopped short of withdrawing it, and the protests continued into July. The movement has placed profound strain on the one-country-two-systems framework under which Hong Kong operates.

Venezuela: Maduro Survives Another Challenge

Opposition leader Juan Guaidó, recognised by the United States, Canada, most of Latin America and the European Union as Venezuela’s legitimate president since January 2019, launched Operation Liberty on 30 April — an attempt to persuade military officers to defect and trigger Maduro’s removal. A small group of military personnel appeared alongside Guaidó outside La Carlota airbase in Caracas; the broader military defection Guaidó had anticipated did not materialise. Maduro remained in power, the uprising collapsed within hours, and arrests followed. Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis deepened: the country’s oil production had fallen to its lowest level since the 1940s, the PETROCARIBE programme had effectively ceased to operate, and the emigration of Venezuelans across Latin America and the Caribbean continued at a scale described by the UNHCR as among the largest displacement crises in the Western Hemisphere.

Looking Ahead

The Gulf remains the most immediate risk to Caribbean energy costs as the summer begins: any escalation between the US and Iran could push oil prices sharply higher. Hong Kong’s crisis is unresolved and carries implications for global financial stability and China’s political trajectory. Venezuela’s collapse continues to remove PETROCARIBE’s residual utility while flooding neighbouring states with refugees. The UK’s leadership contest will conclude in late July, with Boris Johnson expected to become prime minister on a no-deal Brexit platform. And Sudan’s transition, fragile as it is, represents a test of whether popular uprisings in the region can deliver civilian governance. For Jamaica, the global environment entering the second half of 2019 remains volatile and presents real risks to the tourism-dependent economy that has been performing so strongly.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.

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