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Biden withdrew, Harris entered, the Fed cut 50 basis points, the yen carry trade imploded and recovered in a week, and US inflation fell below 3 percent for the first time since 2021. Jamaica delivered its fourth consecutive summer at the structural baseline.

Inflation resumed its decline, the Fed projected one cut for the year, Nvidia briefly became the world’s most valuable company, Iran attacked Israel directly, and the US presidential debate scrambled the election’s shape — all in a single quarter. Jamaica’s summer booking data held the structural baseline.

The market opened 2024 pricing six Fed rate cuts by December. The inflation data delivered three consecutive upside surprises instead. The collision between the market’s optimism and the Fed’s guidance — the last mile problem made concrete — was Q1’s defining story. In Jamaica, the winter season passed its durability test.

The Federal Reserve achieved its soft landing: 525 basis points of rate increases, three bank failures, and inflation from 6.4 percent to 3.4 percent — all without a recession. Jamaica matched its 2019 arrival record for the first time since the pandemic, the BOJ began cutting rates, and the AI investment wave redefined the economic horizon.

The Fed’s final hike in July took rates to a 22-year high, the 10-year Treasury breached 5 percent, and the UAW won its most ambitious contract in decades. Jamaica’s summer delivered the confirmation the series had been tracking: 2023 arrivals matched or exceeded the 2019 record, making the recovery structurally complete.

The Federal Reserve paused in June, First Republic failed in May, Congress averted a sovereign default by days, and US inflation reached 3.0 percent — exactly one year after its 9.1 percent peak. Jamaica’s summer opened with a third consecutive year of strong bookings, confirming the recovery as structural baseline.