Turkey Survives a Coup, Nice Is Attacked on Bastille Day, Brexit Reshapes Britain and Colombia Votes No on Peace

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review | Published 3 October 2016 | Reporting Period: 3 July – 2 October 2016

Quarterly Briefing

• A faction of Turkey’s military attempts a coup on July 15; President Erdoğan survives, returns to Istanbul, and launches a sweeping purge that removes tens of thousands of soldiers, judges, teachers and civil servants from their positions.
• A Tunisian-born man drives a truck into crowds celebrating Bastille Day in Nice on July 14, killing 86 people in the deadliest Islamist attack in France since the November 2015 Paris attacks.
• Theresa May becomes UK Prime Minister on July 13 following Boris Johnson’s withdrawal from the Conservative leadership race; she appoints Johnson as Foreign Secretary and signals Brexit will proceed on schedule.
• Colombia’s historic peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas, signed on September 26, is narrowly rejected in a public referendum on October 2 by 50.2 per cent of voters; the peace process continues but its path forward is uncertain.
• Rio de Janeiro hosts the Olympic Games from August 5–21 despite security concerns, the Zika virus outbreak and Brazil’s worst recession in decades; the event proceeds without major incident.
• Hurricane Matthew is currently tracking toward the Caribbean as a Category 4 storm, presenting an imminent and serious threat to Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba; authorities across the region are on emergency alert.

Prologue: Coups, Trucks and Referendums

The third quarter of 2016 delivered a set of events that challenged fundamental assumptions about democratic stability, political order and the management of violent extremism. Turkey — a NATO member, a major regional power and a country whose stability underpinned European security architecture — came within hours of a military takeover, then lurched into what critics described as an authoritarian purge disguised as counter-coup security. France was attacked again, on its national day, by a method — a vehicle driven into a crowd — that was almost impossible to prevent and devastatingly effective. Britain’s post-Brexit political crisis resolved itself faster than expected into stable new leadership, but the direction of travel remained unclear. And Colombia came heartbreakingly close to ending a conflict that had lasted longer than most of its citizens had been alive, only to see a narrow majority say no. As this edition is published, Hurricane Matthew tracks toward the Caribbean and an emergency of a different kind demands immediate attention.

Turkey’s Failed Coup

On the night of 15–16 July 2016, a faction of Turkish military officers seized bridges, deployed tanks and used fighter jets and helicopters in an attempted coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government. Erdoğan, who was on holiday in the southwest, appeared on CNN Türk via video call from his mobile phone, calling on citizens to take to the streets against the coup. Crowds surrounded tanks; soldiers were disarmed; the coup collapsed by dawn. The official death toll was over 250. Within days, the government announced massive purges: over 50,000 people — soldiers, judges, police, teachers, academics and civil servants — were detained, suspended or dismissed. The government attributed responsibility to the Gulen movement, an Islamic network led by US-based cleric Fethullah Gülen, and demanded his extradition from the United States.

The coup attempt and its aftermath had significant implications for Turkey’s NATO membership, its EU accession process and its role as a partner in managing Syrian refugee flows to Europe. Erdoğan’s post-coup consolidation of power raised serious concerns about the independence of the judiciary and press freedom. For Caribbean observers, Turkey’s crisis illustrated how quickly political stability in a major economy could fracture — and how the regional and global consequences of such fractures could ripple through energy markets, security arrangements and trade relationships.

Nice: Terrorism Finds a New Method

The attack in Nice on 14 July — France’s Bastille Day, when tens of thousands gathered on the promenade along the sea to watch fireworks — demonstrated that the threat of Islamist-inspired terrorism had evolved beyond what conventional security cordons could prevent. Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, a Tunisian-born French resident with no prior known ties to ISIS, drove a 19-tonne truck for almost two kilometres along the Promenade des Anglais, killing 86 people and injuring over 430 before being shot dead by police. ISIS claimed the attack after the fact. France extended its state of emergency. The attack occurred days before Turkey’s coup attempt, contributing to a July of extraordinary geopolitical turbulence.

For Caribbean tourism, the Nice attack reinforced the security vulnerability of open-air public events and seafront promenades — the very environments that define beach resort tourism. Security reviews across Caribbean hotel and event facilities followed, and the episodic nature of such attacks maintained a general anxiety about tourist destination safety that destination marketers were required to manage proactively.

Brexit’s New Leadership and Colombia’s Near-Peace

Britain’s post-referendum political convulsion resolved more quickly than expected. Theresa May emerged as Conservative leader and Prime Minister on 13 July; Boris Johnson, who had campaigned for Leave but then pulled out of the leadership race, was appointed Foreign Secretary in a decision that surprised many. May signalled she would honour the referendum result and proceed with Brexit, setting a target of triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. The new government was focused on managing the transition without causing unnecessary economic disruption, though the fundamental question — what relationship Britain would seek with the EU — remained unanswered.

Colombia’s peace agreement, four years in the making, was signed between President Santos and FARC commander Timochenko on 26 September in Cartagena — a city on the Caribbean coast whose own history of violence made the ceremony symbolically powerful. Six days later, Colombian voters rejected it in a referendum by the narrowest of margins: 50.2 per cent against, 49.8 per cent in favour, on a turnout of under 38 per cent. The ‘No’ campaign had focused on the deal’s provisions on justice for FARC commanders and the movement’s future political participation. President Santos, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on 7 October, vowed to continue negotiations. The peace process was not dead, but it had been wounded by democracy.

Hurricane Matthew: The Immediate Crisis

As this edition is published on 3 October 2016, Hurricane Matthew is tracking toward the Caribbean as a major storm. Authorities in Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas are on emergency alert. Matthew had intensified rapidly over the western Caribbean; meteorologists are tracking it as a potentially catastrophic Category 4 or 5 system. Jamaica has issued hurricane warnings. The Jamaican government and the National Disaster Risk Management Council have activated emergency protocols. The full impact of the storm will be known in the days ahead, but the anxiety across the region is acute.

Looking Ahead

Matthew’s passage will be the immediate focus. Beyond the hurricane season, the US presidential election on November 8 looms as the most consequential political event of the quarter for Caribbean interests: a Trump victory would bring fundamental changes to immigration policy, trade and foreign engagement that would affect every aspect of the Caribbean’s relationship with its largest partner. Brexit’s Article 50 timeline approaches. Turkey’s post-coup trajectory remains uncertain. And Colombia’s negotiators will need to find a way to bring the peace back from the referendum’s razor-thin rejection. The world enters the final quarter of 2016 in a state of compounding uncertainty that shows little sign of resolution.

Jamaica Homes Global Conflict & Caribbean Impact Review is published quarterly, examining how wars, geopolitical tensions and major international crises have shaped Jamaica, the Caribbean and their economies.

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