Published: 2 July 2021 | Jamaica Homes News
Key Takeaways
- Virtual Jamaica Diaspora Symposium: June 18–19 convenes a global audience: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade convened the Virtual Jamaica Diaspora Symposium on 18–19 June 2021, providing a structured diaspora engagement forum in place of the in-person 9th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference, which COVID-19 had again prevented. Thousands of diaspora members participated online from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and beyond, engaging in working group sessions across investment, housing, education, health, and governance.
- Q2 2021 GDP: approximately 14.2 per cent growth on a depressed 2020 base: Jamaica’s Q2 2021 GDP growth of approximately 14.2 per cent was the strongest quarterly figure in recent history, reflecting primarily the very low base established by Q2 2020’s COVID-19 lockdown contraction. Underlying recovery in tourism, construction, and services was genuine but more modest; the exceptional headline figure was principally a statistical artefact of the comparison period.
- Remittances: pandemic-era solidarity sustains record pace: Jamaica’s remittance inflows through Q2 2021 continued the exceptional pace established in 2020, with year-to-date flows well ahead of pre-pandemic levels. The sustained diaspora solidarity response, strong US labour market recovery, and continued suppression of diaspora travel—which redirected spending into formal transfers—kept inflows at historically elevated levels.
- Vaccine rollout: diaspora countries accelerating, Jamaica lagging: By Q2 2021, the United States had vaccinated more than half its adult population against COVID-19, and the United Kingdom was well advanced in its programme. Canada was accelerating rapidly. Jamaica’s own vaccination programme, reliant on COVAX deliveries and bilateral donations, was proceeding more slowly, a disparity that carried implications for the pace of Jamaica’s own economic recovery and the diaspora’s willingness to travel.
- Trump deportation legacy: Biden framework adjustments continue: The Biden administration’s recalibration of immigration enforcement priorities—away from the broad community sweeps of the Trump years—continued to reshape the deportation environment for Jamaican-American communities. PICA’s deportee reception processing continued at a baseline pace reflecting the new administration’s more targeted enforcement approach.
- Housing market: pandemic demand drives price appreciation: Jamaica’s residential property market was experiencing meaningful price appreciation through Q2 2021, driven partly by diaspora demand from overseas buyers who had accumulated savings during the pandemic and were deploying them into Jamaican property. This demand was benefiting the broader market but raising affordability concerns for returnees and first-time domestic buyers.
Introduction: The Symposium Quarter
The second quarter of 2021 was defined above all by the Virtual Jamaica Diaspora Symposium of June 2021 — a deliberate and necessary adaptation to the continued COVID-19 constraints that had, for the second consecutive year, prevented the in-person gathering of the 9th Biennial Jamaica Diaspora Conference. The symposium demonstrated both the diaspora’s resilience — its capacity to maintain organised engagement with Jamaica even under pandemic conditions — and the limits of virtual substitution for the physical conference that remains central to the biennial cycle’s relational and political energy.
The economic backdrop was unusual. Jamaica’s headline GDP growth of 14.2 per cent for Q2 2021 sounded extraordinary but was principally a reflection of the devastating contraction in Q2 2020 — the quarter in which lockdowns, closed borders, and suspended tourism had produced the island’s worst quarterly GDP performance in decades. The underlying recovery was real but more measured, with tourism still significantly below pre-pandemic levels and the full return of diaspora travel still constrained. This quarterly update draws on the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, MFAFT, PICA, and Caribbean diaspora media.
Virtual Jamaica Diaspora Symposium: A Digital Conference at Scale
The Virtual Jamaica Diaspora Symposium, held on 18 and 19 June 2021, was the Jamaica government’s second consecutive virtual diaspora engagement event, following the virtual Town Hall series of 2020. Organised by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade under the theme “Connecting the Dots: Diaspora Partnership for National Development,” the symposium brought together an estimated several thousand participants from across the diaspora’s global geography. The virtual format, while an imperfect substitute for the in-person biennial conference, allowed participation from diaspora members across multiple time zones who would have faced prohibitive travel costs or logistical barriers to attending in person.
The symposium’s working group structure covered the diaspora engagement agenda comprehensively: economic development and investment; housing and returning residents; education, youth, and skills transfer; health and social services; culture, arts, and sport; and governance and institutional strengthening. Government ministers participated in plenary and working group sessions, providing the political signal that the symposium’s outputs would receive serious governmental attention. Foreign Affairs Minister Kamina Johnson Smith addressed participants on the government’s diaspora engagement vision and on the forthcoming National Diaspora Policy, which was in advanced stages of development.
On housing — consistently one of the highest-engagement topics for diaspora participants — the working group produced recommendations for improved pre-return information services, a feasibility assessment of an NHT diaspora housing product, and better coordination between PICA’s Returning Residents programme and Jamaica’s overseas missions. The investment working group focused on the persistent challenge of connecting diaspora capital with trustworthy, well-governed Jamaican investment opportunities, with recommendations for a structured diaspora investment pipeline product to be developed through the Development Bank of Jamaica.
Community leaders who participated in the symposium were broadly positive about the quality of engagement, while acknowledging the relational limitations of the virtual format. The consensus view was that the symposium was a creditable holding operation for the diaspora engagement calendar, but that the in-person 9th Biennial Conference — now being targeted for 2022 — would be needed to restore the depth of connection and political energy that only physical gatherings can generate.
Remittances: Pandemic Solidarity Sustains the Record Pace
Jamaica’s remittance inflows through Q2 2021 maintained the exceptional pace that had characterised the pandemic period since Q2 2020. Year-to-date flows through the first half of 2021 were running well ahead of the equivalent 2020 period — itself a strong year — and Bank of Jamaica data indicated that the full-year 2021 total was on track to establish a new annual record. The structural dynamics driving the elevated flows — reduced diaspora travel to Jamaica redirecting spending into formal transfers, heightened solidarity giving in response to pandemic-related family need, and the US labour market’s stronger-than-expected recovery — remained operative through Q2.
The United States labour market’s recovery was a critical supporting factor. The American Rescue Plan Act, signed by President Biden in March 2021, had injected $1.9 trillion in stimulus into the US economy, including direct payments of $1,400 per person that had directly boosted Jamaican-American household liquidity. The US unemployment rate was declining steadily through Q2, with the sectors employing the largest concentrations of Jamaican workers — healthcare, construction, hospitality, and domestic services — recovering employment levels that supported strong remittance-sending capacity.
The United Kingdom contributed a significant secondary remittance stream, with British-Jamaican NHS and social care workers — who had been among the most exposed and celebrated of the pandemic’s key workers — continuing to send regular transfers to Jamaican family members. The UK vaccination programme’s rapid advance through Q2 was reducing health anxiety and laying the groundwork for the eventual restoration of UK-Jamaica travel that would redirect some remittance spending back into in-person giving and tourism.
Digital remittance platforms continued to capture market share from traditional agent networks through Q2 2021. The pandemic’s acceleration of digital adoption — as lockdowns curtailed access to physical agent locations — had produced a structural shift that was proving durable. New digital remittance users acquired during the pandemic’s lockdown phases were largely remaining on digital platforms, driven by lower fees, faster transfer times, and the convenience of mobile-first interfaces. Jamaica National’s digital remittance offering, alongside the major international platforms, was participating in this structural transformation of the Caribbean remittance market.
Economic Performance: Recovery Real but Headline Inflated
Jamaica’s Q2 2021 GDP growth of approximately 14.2 per cent was the island’s strongest quarterly figure in recent economic history, but required careful interpretation. The figure reflected primarily the very low base established by Q2 2020, when Jamaica’s economy contracted sharply under COVID-19 lockdowns, border closures, and the complete suspension of tourism. On that depressed comparison base, even a partial recovery in Q2 2021 produced an exceptional headline growth rate.
The underlying recovery in Q2 2021 was genuine but more modest. Tourism was recovering — with stopover visitor arrivals growing month-on-month as vaccination rates in the US market improved and Jamaica’s own border remained open under its health and safety protocols — but arrivals remained well below pre-pandemic levels. The government’s health and safety certification programme for hotels and attractions had provided a framework for the reopening of tourism facilities, and the major resort operators were reporting improving occupancy through Q2.
Construction remained one of the most dynamic sectors, sustained by government infrastructure projects, the continued pipeline of tourism-related development, and the residential market’s demand for new homes. Financial services and business process outsourcing continued their strong performance, with Jamaica’s BPO sector in particular benefiting from the global shift toward remote work and offshore service delivery. For diaspora investors assessing Jamaica’s economic trajectory, the Q2 2021 data — properly understood as a strong recovery on a low base — was broadly encouraging.
COVID Vaccination: The Diaspora Countries Accelerate
By the close of Q2 2021, the United States had fully vaccinated approximately 55 per cent of its adult population, with the pace of the vaccination campaign beginning to slow as access expanded beyond the most eager early adopters. The United Kingdom had administered at least one dose to nearly 80 per cent of its adult population, and Canada was accelerating its programme rapidly after a slow start. The differential vaccination rates between Jamaica’s key diaspora countries and Jamaica itself — where the COVAX programme’s deliveries and bilateral vaccine donations had supported a slower rollout — was creating an asymmetry in reopening timelines that had direct implications for the restoration of diaspora travel.
The disparity prompted significant diaspora advocacy around vaccine equity and access for the Caribbean. Diaspora community organisations in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom participated in broader civil society campaigns calling for wealthy nations to share surplus vaccine doses with developing countries through COVAX and bilateral donation channels. Several diaspora members with healthcare professional credentials volunteered to support Jamaica’s vaccination campaign directly, either through skills transfer or by returning temporarily to assist with programme delivery.
Returnees: Steady Flow, Rising Property Prices
Voluntary return migration from the United Kingdom and North America continued at a steady pace through Q2 2021, with COVID-era travel requirements adding complexity and cost to the return journey but not preventing it. PICA’s Returning Residents duty concession processing continued through the quarter, with UK-based applicants the dominant voluntary returnee group. The summer period’s traditionally higher return migration volumes were moderated by COVID constraints, but the underlying demand for return to Jamaica remained strong among the UK-based cohort of retirees and early returnees.
The property market in Jamaica’s returnee-preferred parishes — Manchester, Portland, and the hill communities of St Andrew — was experiencing meaningful price appreciation through Q2 2021. The pandemic had paradoxically boosted diaspora property demand: diaspora members who had accumulated savings during the pandemic years — unable to travel, eat out, or spend on the usual discretionary categories — were deploying those savings into Jamaican property, both as investment and as preparation for eventual return. This diaspora-driven demand was contributing to price inflation in the communities most sought after by returnees, raising affordability concerns for those arriving on fixed pension incomes.
Immigration and Deportations
The Biden administration’s first six months in office had produced a measurable shift in the immigration enforcement environment for Jamaican-American communities. The administration’s stated enforcement priorities — focused on recent arrivals, national security threats, and serious criminal convictions rather than the broad community enforcement sweeps of the Trump years — had reduced the ambient anxiety about ICE enforcement that had characterised the preceding four years for many long-settled Jamaican-American community members. The rollback of the Trump administration’s expanded expedited removal orders and the pause on certain enforcement actions had provided near-term relief without resolving the underlying structural vulnerabilities of undocumented community members.
Deportation flights to Jamaica continued at a baseline pace consistent with the Biden enforcement framework. PICA’s reception protocols for arriving deportees were functioning within established parameters. RISE Life Management Services maintained its reintegration support capacity, though the organisation’s reach remained limited by resource constraints that meant only a fraction of arriving deportees were able to access structured reintegration support. Community advocacy organisations continued their legislative push for the comprehensive immigration reform that would address the long-term legal vulnerabilities of settled Jamaican-American community members.
National Diaspora Policy: Advanced Development
The National Diaspora Policy was in an advanced stage of development through Q2 2021, with the MFAFT’s policy team incorporating the Virtual Diaspora Symposium’s working group outputs into the policy’s finalisation process. The policy’s six strategic pillars — economic development, social and cultural engagement, political participation, knowledge and skills transfer, diaspora registration and data, and institutional strengthening — were taking shape through an iterative drafting process that engaged partner ministries, international development partners, and diaspora community representatives. Cabinet adoption was targeted for later in the year, though the timeline remained subject to the government’s broader legislative and policy agenda.
Outlook for Q3 2021
The third quarter of 2021 will be watched closely for signs of progress on Jamaica’s vaccination programme and the pace of the diaspora travel recovery that higher vaccination rates should support. The Atlantic hurricane season’s peak activity period runs from August through October, and Jamaica’s preparedness infrastructure will be tested by whatever the 2021 season produces. The MFAFT’s post-symposium implementation work will be a key focus, as the working group recommendations from June need to be translated into action plans before the political momentum of the symposium fades. And the remittance trajectory — currently running at record pace — will be watched for any early signs of normalisation as US stimulus effects dissipate and diaspora travel gradually resumes.
This Quarterly Jamaica Diaspora and Returnee Update is researched and published by Jamaica Homes News. Sources consulted include the Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica Observer, Nationwide News Network, RJR News, Caribbean National Weekly, Bank of Jamaica, Planning Institute of Jamaica, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, and PICA. All figures and developments are accurate as of the publication date, 2 July 2021.
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