KINGSTON, Jamaica — If you live in St Mary, you may be looking outside at another wet road, overflowing gutter or rain-soaked hillside and wondering one simple thing: what drought?
It is a fair question.
Parts of St Mary have experienced repeated rainfall in recent weeks, yet the National Water Commission says 107 water systems across Jamaica are being affected by drought conditions.
The explanation is simpler than it sounds: rain falling today does not immediately replace water that has been disappearing for months.
Imagine a large water tank that has been running low for a long time. A few heavy showers may put some water back into it, but that does not necessarily fill it.
Jamaica’s water system works in much the same way.
Many NWC systems depend on rivers, springs, wells, reservoirs and underground water. These sources normally need sustained rainfall over their catchment areas before they recover properly.
The NWC describes this as a hydrological drought, meaning streams are carrying less water than normal or reservoirs remain unusually low.
That also explains why your experience in St Mary can appear completely different from what is happening elsewhere.
Rainfall in Jamaica is highly localised. Heavy rain can fall over one community while another area a few kilometres away receives considerably less. More importantly, the rain needs to fall in the right place to replenish the river, spring, well or watershed feeding a particular water system.
In Kingston and St Andrew, for example, the problem remains obvious. On September 30, the Mona Reservoir stood at just 33.4 per cent of capacity, while the Hermitage Dam was at 40.1 per cent.
There is another issue homeowners should understand.
Not every time your pipe is dry means Jamaica has run out of water.
Recent NWC notices for St Mary have included problems involving electricity, equipment and maintenance. That means a community can have plenty of rain outside and still temporarily lose its piped water supply because the system that pumps or distributes that water is not operating normally.
The NWC says it is monitoring 150 systems and has reported that 107 are affected by drought to varying degrees. Some are operating at severely reduced levels.
The situation may also become more difficult. El Niño is strengthening, and international climate forecasters expect a very strong El Niño through late 2026 and into 2027. El Niño can increase the likelihood of hotter or drier conditions in parts of the Caribbean, although its effects are not identical everywhere.
So, for homeowners, the simplest way to understand the current situation is this:
The rain you see falling is good news, but Jamaica needs enough rain, for long enough, in the right places, to refill the water sources we actually use.
Until that happens, it is entirely possible to have rain hammering on your roof in St Mary while parts of Jamaica remain officially in drought.
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